Stone Crabs vs. Miracle 4/6/12

Hey guys, totally new spin on this today. I'll be in Fort Myers for the next month or so, and as such i'll be catching as many Miracle games as possible. I keep detailed notes of all the games I attend, so I figured I might as well share them here.


Here they are as posted to TwinsDaily and RaysProspects.


I'd love to hear some thoughts if you have any!


STONECRABS (RAYS PROSPECTS)

4/6/12 Charlotte Stone Crabs Report.

Greetings, just wanted to throw up my thoughts on the game from last night (4/6). I do want to clarify, I am not a scout, I do not pretend to be an internet scout. Just a passionate fan, with an eye for detail. I watched this game, scored it, and took notes on various players.

Without further ado, the report.

Pitchers:

Enny Romero: 

Just by looking at him he has the size with ample room to grow (though I noted his body is slightly odd, he has a big behind but overall wiry frame, just looks out of place). Without knowing much of him you can tell this guy is special. He throws heat! That said he does have a long and slow delivery that could become an issue at higher levels. In the first inning he hit 93-96 pretty consistently, and touched 97 twice, 98 once, and 99 once. Impressive heat. Especially when it dawned on me he is left handed. He repeated his delivery really well in the first inning, but that fell apart in the second and third innings. When he nails the delivery he looks unhittable, but when he misses things get ugly. When he falls behind in the count he slows things down and throws 90-92, which is still fine for a LHP but I don't like the dramatic drop in order to throw strikes. 

He walked 3, allowed 2 hits, and struck out five in three innings, but what really impressed me was his ability to get ahead. He threw first-pitch strikes to 11 of the 15 batters he faced (73.3%), that said he only threw 42 total strikes on 72 pitches (58.3%). So eliminating the first pitch of a PA, he threw 57 pitches, and 31 strikes (54.3%). At the moment there is no reason to not think he won't continue to develop as a starting pitcher. I profile him as a potential #2 starter. If he cannot become more consistent with the delivery I still see him being a solid back-end of the rotation option, set-up reliever. Any lefty that can crank it up into the upper 90s I am a fan of!

Eliazer Suero: 

He caught my eye quickly because of the way he worked. I describe it as working backwards, in his first inning of work he threw primarily all breaking balls, with great success. His fastball only sits at 89-91 and as such isn't a plus pitch. His first inning was pretty, but in the second he reversed course and threw a ton of fastballs with little success. In the third he went back to the breaking stuff and again was successful. In the fourth inning of his work the wildness returned, as he went back to fastballs and change-ups with little success. Overall he threw four innings, struck out 5, walked 3 and allowed 1 hit. He only threw 54.3% of pitches for strikes throw, and this is troubling. I wish I had tracked balls and strikes by pitch, but he rarely threw his Change-Up or Fastball for a strike. That said his breaking pitch was almost always around the zone or swung-at out of the zone. Seems odd to me, and I suspect he will have to establish a fastball to succeed at higher levels.

Victor Mateo: 

Long, lean body. Works quickly. Was throwing 90-92 with the fastball. He kept the ball on the infield and was effective. Started his outing with a four pitch walk, but then threw strikes on 24 of his next 32 pitches over two innings.

Others

Luke Bailey:

Without knowing anything about him, I'd be scared. After reading up on his elbow reconstruction and his 40% CS rate last year as a catcher... I am down-right worried. I hope what I saw was an anomaly but boy was it ugly. Below average catching skills, but even worse, struggles with basic throws. During the throw-down at the end of warmups he overthrew second-base three times (as in soared the ball to centerfield). After a strike-out on an attempt to go around the horn he soared another well over the 3B and into left-field. At the beginning of the fourth inning he failed to get the ball back to the pitcher after a warm-up pitch. Finally the ninth was just comical. He nailed a perfect throw to second at the end of warm-ups, only for the second basemen to miss it completely as he was expecting a throw high. Then once a batter reached during the inning he blocked a pitch in the dirt, and proceeded to throw the ball a good 15 feet over the shortstops head who was covering on the steal attempt. SCARY. Good news is he is a solid hitter with a good frame, throwing up 3 quality ABs tonight. I hope the fielding issues were a mirage.

Mikie Mahtook:

Baseball America says his arm rates as "average" in CF... Well, it certainly doesn't rate as average in RF. I'm a big-fan of Mahtook the hitter, but Mahtook the outfielder not so much. His arm in my book would rate as below-average with weak lofting throws (Today was the third time I'd seen him in action after seeing him twice this spring).

Riccio Torrez: 

Just a quick thought, smooth, kinda sexy fielder. Really strong arm and fluid motions as a fielder!

MIRACLE (TWINS PROSPECTS)

PITCHERS

Pat Dean: 

Dean started the game and was quite efficient throughout the game. The lefty out of Boston College is making a return to the Fort after throwing 58 innings here last year. Tonight he was working between 87-92 with his fastball. He has a small frame and slight body but he pounds the strike-zone and fires strikes with his fastball. He needed only 67 pitches to get through 6 quality innings, and threw 50 strikes (74.6%). What I found interesting is that the first batter of the game, an eventual strikeout looking, started with an 11-pitch AB in which is took two balls, fouled off eight and then eventually went down looking. If you eliminate that first AB of the game, Dean recorded 17 outs in a span of 56 pitches. Throwing 41 strikes on those 56 pitches. He most likely tops out as a long reliever or 5th starter down the round.

Bruce Pugh: 

The righty is back for his third stint in Fort Myers, 2010 as a starter, and 2011 as an all-star reliever, was the first option out of the pen tonight. He throws hard, 94-95, with the occasional 85 MPH change-up mixed in. But his stuff is straight, and was ripped in four consecutive ABs to start his appearance. The box score will show he allowed four hits, and four runs, but only three were earned. In reality this could have easily been five hits and four earned. He was charged with an error on a chopped ball that he mishandled and couldn't get the out. He is only 23, but three consecutive seasons at one level is never a good sign.

Caleb Thielbar: 

The first player the Twins have ever signed from the St. Paul Saints, Caleb Thielbar came out of the pen for the 8th and 9th inning and was pretty effective. The lefty sits at 90-93 MPH (touching 94 to the second batter he faced) and throws a low 80s slider. He did hit two batters, but otherwise was pretty effective, throwing 70% of his pitches for strikes. He threw 7.1 innings at the end of last year for Fort Myers allowing only one hit over that time. At 25 he is not really a prospect, but if the Rock Cats need an arm at some point I wouldn't be surprised if Thielbar were given that opportunity.

OTHERS

Daniel Santana:

I'll get called crazy, but Santana reminds me somewhat of Alexi Casilla. He runs well (though he was caught 15 times on 39 attempts last year), and sets the table really well for the guys after him. He had three of the games four hits today, and also stole a base. All five of his at-bats today were quality ABs, and I was really impressed with him. He is listed at 170, but I suspect that's a stretch. He was the #20 prospect in the 2011 Prospect Handbook, but goes unlisted this season. He is a sleeper.

Oswaldo Arcia: 

I saw him a couple times this spring, and I love that he was the youngest player in Major League camp. I didn't see much from him at the plate today (he struck out twice, walked once and was hit by a pitch) but he has a cannon from Right Field. He should be able to reach double digit assists from RF. 

The Dominican Dilemma

In the last 5 months Major League Baseball has been rocked by two age-scandals involving star players. In September, the Miami Marlins placed Leo Nunez on the restricted list. Later in the month it was revealed that Leo Nunez was actually Juan Carlos Oviedo, and was 18 months older than originally thought. Then just today January 19th, the Cleveland Indians learn, Fausto Carmona, wasn't actually Fausto Carmona, but rather, Roberto Hernandez Heredia. On top of that, he wasn't 28 but rather 31.

No then here comes the interesting twist... Why would a player falsify his information? Simple answer, money.

Take it from Edward Mujica (Oviedo's good friend and teammate with the Marlins) "[a]t 17 years old, you maybe lose $100,000 or $150,000 when you sign [compared to a 16-year-old with the same skills]. And if you're like 18, you might sign for $5,000 and maybe they give you an opportunity."


He is completely right, teams love taking risks on 16-year olds, pumping millions a year into the international free agent market, but they also rarely pay much for 18-year olds, despite the fact that they are essentially the same age as a high school player. 


Now with the new CBA spending in the international market may be curtailed. And within the next few years we may see an international draft. That said, the international draft may have some major consequences (I personally am not a fan of the International Draft), especially because of the 18-year old age and high school graduation rules put in place in the 1990's when the MLB added Puerto Rico to the Rule 4 draft.


So with that said, what is the easiest solution?


In my mind the solution will come when teams begin to realie a couple things: Dominican players (and all foreign players) are currently being signed at 16-years of age. Fausto Carmona signed when the Indians thought he was 16, in 2000. Now it has been revealed he was 19. That said, his development speed was very similar to a college junior draftee. He reached the majors at 25, and dominated the AL at 26. Five years later he is still a pretty decent pitcher but is he worth the $8 million dollar option the Indians just picked up? Well that's tricky, I didn't think he was before I knew he was 31, so now that he is actually 31 it definitely seems flawed.


Oviedo on the other hand is a different story, in the same year (2000) that the Indians signed the 19-year old Heredia (nee Carmona), the Pirates signed the 17-year old Oviedo (nee Nunez). Oviedo reached the majors in 2005 as a 22 year old (essentially the same route most high-round, successful high-school picks take), and broke through as a 25 year old. He'll be 29 this season and is still expected to be an effective closer for the Marlins (Assuming he gets a Visa).


There is no simple answer to the dilemma. The new CBA will limit the overall spending, but that coupled with the potential international draft could create even more age-issues and tampering. My solution is merely to continue to provide Dominican kids with the opportunity to be seen. The Dominican Summer League is a great place for MLB teams to develop Dominican talent, but what is missing is teams that are unaffiliated.


If you asked a scout how much he'd be willing to sign a 19-year old who as a 26-year old would go 19-7 with a 3.06 ERA in the MLB you'd almost certainly hear first round numbers. After all 19 is the age of a college freshman. 


Or how about a 17-year old who by 28 would have 317 MLB Appearances and 92 saves. His value may be a little less, but nonetheless he'd be worth top round money.


But if you told the same scout it was a Dominican kid who no one signed as a 16-year old, and he didn't know the future results you'd hear offers similar to that of a late round college senior.


As such my solution is simply, add two teams to the DSL that are sponsored by the MLB and feature talent that is under 20, but unsigned. Any MLB club can sign the players at anytime for $25,000 (5X greater than the average over 16-year old in the Dominican). What this does is it allows these players to continue to play under the watchful eye of Major League Baseball and helps lessen the burden of falsifying information. Is this solution perfect? No, it is far from it. But what other options are out there? I want to hear your ideas.


Drop me a tweet @AltitudeSports


'Til The Inspiration Strikes Again, 2012 is right around the corner.

The Stigma of Size

I am a huge proponent of scouts picking one player over another based purely on size and weight. As such it got me thinking about the stigma of size. We've seen players like David Eckstein and Dustin Pedroia succeed, but how many other smaller players have been passed over based purely on size?

As such, size is a topic that has bothered me for awhile. You frequently see scouts (both real and armchair alike) discussing a players size, and how so and so is undersized or too skinny. You see things like it's ok that so and so is overweight, he has good size. So I got to wondering, how much of an impact does size truly have.

In order to analyze this I found the average height and weight of every player on an MLB opening day roster in 2011. For the MLB last season this was 73.27 inches (roughly 6 foot 1 and 1/4 inches) and 206.8 pounds. There was a difference for the National League and the American League as well. In the NL the average was exactly 73.25 inches (6'1 1/4") and 206.75 pounds. In the AL the average height and weight was only slightly different, 73.29 inches, and the weight 206.86. That said, for this this analysis, I will view players in regards to the league they played in.

The first step to assessing this question is I went and found the Top five players according to Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in the AL and NL.

In the AL the top five players were:

• Jose Bautista
• Justin Verlander
• Jacoby Ellsbury
• Miguel Cabrera
• Adrian Gonzalez

In the NL:

• Matt Kemp
• Ryan Braun
• Clayton Kershaw
• Cliff Lee
• Roy Halladay

I then decided to eliminate the first-basemen and the pitchers from this abbreviated study because of the fact that most of them are typically bigger bodies and you don't commonly think of first basemen as "normal" sized players. Because of this I added the following players to the study in the American League.

• Dustin Pedroia
• Evan Longoria
• Alex Gordon
• Mike Napoli
• Alex Avila
• Ian Kinsler

In the National League this added:

• Pablo Sandoval
• Jose Reyes
• Troy Tulowitzki
• Mike Stanton
• Andrew McCutchen
• Lance Berkman
• Hunter Pence

For the sake of the study I also took the four players with 0.0 WAR with the most plate appearances in both the AL and NL and added them to the study. In the AL this added,

• Juan Pierre
• Delmon Young
• Carl Crawford
• Hideki Matsui

In the NL:

• Seth Smith
• Greg Dobbs
• Paul Janish
• Ryan Theriot

For there I simply took a look at those players heights and weights in comparison to the league averages.

What I found was as follows:

OF THE STUDIED 31 Players:

• HEIGHT AVERAGE (72-74) 14 Fall in This Range/6 Below/11 Above
• WEIGHT AVERAGE (200-210) 10 Fall In This Range/7 Below/14 Above
• The AVERAGE 0.0 REPLACEMENT PLAYER in THE AL WAS: 73.5"/200 LBS
• IN THE NL The AVERAGE 0.0 REPLACEMENT PLAYER WAS: 73.25"/198.75 LBS

• FOR THE TOP PLAYERS IN THE AL (NON-1B/P): 72.125"/201.875 LBS
• FOR THE TOP PLAYERS IN THE NL (NON-1B/P): 73.666"/216.111 LBS

In conclusion, my extremely short-hand study found the following conclusions.

For the top eight players in the AL (Non-1B and P): the average height is only 6 Feet and a quarter inch. A full inch shorter than the league average (though keep in mind that the overall league average includes EVERY player) and the average weight, 201.9 pounds is nearly five pounds less than the league average.

In the National League the average height is only around a quarter of an inch less than average, but the average weight is nearly ten pounds greater than league average. In other words, the stars of the National League are heavier than the overall average of the league.

For replacement players (0.0 WAR) the American League players average a slightly taller height (quarter of an inch), but weigh only 200 pounds 6.86 less than average.

For replacement players in the National League (More likely to be defensive replacements, pinch hitters and role-players than those in the AL) the average height is precisely the same as the league average, but the average weight is 8 full pounds less than average.

As such I am concluding size overall is relative at the normal range (6'0"), the overall average of stars is not dramatically different from league averages. That said, weight seems to play a much bigger role than I previously would have thought. For stars in the American League this is seen in the fact that the stars are well below average weight, but the replacement players are of average weight. In the National League the stars have nearly 17 pounds on average over the average replacement player despite only a quarter of an inch size difference between the two groups.

Yes this study was random, yes it is flawed, but I do find the finding interesting.

The Atlantic League vs. AAA

So the title might be a bit deceiving, but I am asking this question based on the fact that poor Mike Loree still hasn't been picked up by anyone. Before we get there though, let's see how three of the other recently featured players have been fairing since I covered them.

Brian Barden
Mere days after I wrote about him, he asked for his release from the Rangers organization so that he could sign with Hiroshima in the NPB. Since joining Hiroshima in Mid-July, Barden has appeared in 13 games for the big club and hit only .209/.292/.302 1 HR 1 2B and 7 1B... Not exactly pretty, but it is still early in his tenure there, and it does take some players awhile to get acclimated with the Japanese style of play.

Jose Constanza
A month after the article the Braves made a trade to acquire Michael Bourn and also decided that they would add Constanza to both the 40-Man Roster and the MLB Roster. Since joining the Braves, Constanza has been nothing but a big-time force. He and Bourn both have legitimate 80 Speed and make up, in my mind, the fastest OF in the MLB. Oh ya, he has continued to hit since joining the Braves as well. In his first 18 games he is hitting .385/.420/.523 with 2 HR and 5 SB. He has allowed the Braves to shuffle the lineups and allows the team to occasionally rest the slumping Jason Heyward. If Hayward can find his 2010 form, and Constanza can keep reaching base, the Braves will have a pretty prolific outfield for the next couple seasons.

Jimmy Swift
Not much to say here, the Rangers listened (haha), and moved Roof back to Hickory and promoted Swift to Myrtle Beach when Garcia went down with an injury. So far it hasn't gone well...but it's only been three games.

______________________________________________________________

Now the fun part, the Mike Loree conundrum.

Mike Loree turns 27 in a month (Oh and his age is confusing me PointStreak and Newsday both say 1984, MiLB and all other sources say 1986, but alas Villanova says 1984) , so yes that is a downside. He has no Major League experience, he has never pitched above Low-A in the minors, and he got rocked last year in his first season in the Atlantic League. Those are the negatives. But lets look at this from a future value perspective, with a month left in the season and the Angels AAA affiliate Salt Lake Bees pitching staff depleted, why not dip back into the Atlantic League and pick up Loree. Instead, the Bees tonight will send Matt Oye to the mound. Now, Matt Oye isn't bad, but he is 25 and spent the entire season in High-A. He just recently became a starter and his near 5 ERA in High-A isn't exactly inspiring. Now I realize the goal is to develop players, but why call-up Oye from High-A, where he has been average (5.32 ERA as a starter, 6 starts 23.2 IP) when Mike Loree is dominating in the Atlantic League. A league widely considered to have AAA-level hitting.

It is not like the Angels don't know the Atlantic League, in fact in June they signed both Jerome Williams and Matt Cusick. So now let's compare Matt Oye and for that matter another member of the Bees staff, Bear Bay, to one Mike Loree.

Loree this season for Long Island has gone 14-3 with a 1.79 ERA in 17 starts and 5 relief appearances. In 110.2 IP he has struck out 115 batters and walked only 27. For the that matter he has only allowed 92 hits, a 1.08 WHIP.

Matt Oye, pitching in the hitter-friendly California League, 4.87 ERA, 68.1 IP, 68 H, 25 BB, 54 K. Not exactly awe-inspiring. And as a starter, 5.32 ERA, 23.2 IP, 26 H, 7 BB, 19 K. Again not exactly pretty. And that was in High-A.

How about Bear Bay? Prior to getting a minor league deal with the Angels this offseason Bear Bay had spent the past three years in the Northern League (Low to High-A level Independent League) where he had an awful first season, but then two straight excellent seasons. Still his numbers, in a worse league, were never close to what Loree is putting up. Bear Bay in the indy's average 6.88 K/9 2.18 BB/9 and 1.27 WHIP. This season for the Bees, Bay has made 22 starts and 3 relief appearances, posting a 4.70 ERA in 143.2 IP. He has struck out only 86 and walked 32. Opponents are hitting .310 off of him. And he is starting every five days for the Bees.

So Mike Loree, pitching at a level that many consider comparable to AAA, is holding opponents to a .222 average, is averaging 9.35 K/9, and has been overmatching all of his opposition, and yet he is still on Long Island, pitching every fifth day for the Ducks, while Bear Bay and now Mike Oye make starts for the Salt Lake Bees in the AAA Pacific Coast League.

This is just one team out of 30 at the Triple-A level, I guarantee that there are others who could use a starter like Loree. You could get four maybe five starts out of him if you signed him now and get an accurate idea of if you'd want him back for next season. Meanwhile Matt Oye, who is still under control for three more minor league seasons could continue to build his arm strength in High-A with the hopes of him potentially becoming a valuable contributor down the road.

I'm never out to push one player being signed at the expense of another's career but I believe that many of the Atlantic League's players deserve more of a look than that get.

Comments?

Feast or Famine: Joey Butler

Another quick post to start today.

Joey Butler, playing for the Texas Rangers AAA affiliate Round Rock, has been on a tear this season. His slash line looks awesome, .333/.391/.511, but much like Jai Miller, Butler's numbers are deceiving. In 97 games he has 119 strikeouts. Furthermore in only three games this season (at AAA) Butler hasn't either A) had a hit or B) Struck-out. That is nuts. Prior to last night, during a 17-game strikeout streak Butler was hitting .703 when he actually made contact with the ball. The striking difference between Butler and Miller is that while Miller has been crushing homeruns, Butler only has 10. Still though, for the season, when he actually puts the ball in play Butler is hitting .494. Not quite Miller-like, but still quite impressive.

(Credit: Scott Lucas from the Rangers Minor League Report for the inspiration and the numbers from the last 17 games).

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

I read a blog post recently that got me thinking...


"Is a leadoff walk worse than a leadoff single? Nope. They're the same. Leadoff singles score 38 percent of the time, same as leadoff walks. The average number of runs are the same too, .902 runs per inning after a leadoff single."


In essence, I understand what the author is saying, but I feel like he is missing the KEY component. That component is the fact that the batter didn't have to swing the bat to reach base. Meanwhile in order to get a single you must first put the ball in play. Which statistics show happens between 29-30% of the time (BABIP). 


Maybe I am way off track, but the way I see it, a walk is much more deadly than a leadoff single, because simply, there is nothing the hitter has to do to influence it. Whereas the single must actually be contacted by the hitter.


Thoughts?

The Undrafted Player Paradigm

Question: Why is a player who is hitting .472/.562/.764 in 23 games still in Complex Rookie ball. Answer: He was undrafted. In this case, 23 year old Jimmy Swift of the Rangers organization. Yes, he was a 5-yr senior sign, yes, he is much older than the league average, but still... He is hitting nearly .500. Now as a four-year player at Creighton, Swift was never the star. In fact in his senior year he hit only .274/.350/.371. Still, i'm going way outside the box with this thought. In my opinion, if the player is undrafted, he is worth the risk to move up and play at a higher, more challenging level.

I feel this way because simply put you have nothing to lose. Swift for example is a middle infielder. And while he may not be a star, he has nothing left to prove in Surprise. Why not challenge him, see if there is any potential in there. Realistically he can be replaced next season if nothing appears positive. That said, if something does click, then perhaps you have a solid investment on your hands.

For example, assigning him to Myrtle Beach where he would back up Santiago Chirino and Leury Garcia (he of 32 errors). The current backups for these two are Andres James (one month older than Swift) and Jonathan Roof (13 months younger than Swift). Roof was promoted last month to back up Garcia, after hitting .265/.299/.365 for Low-A Hickory, not exactly awe-inspiring numbers. Especially once we take into consideration the fact that last season (as a rookie) he hit .256/.333/.288 for the same Hickory club. So now a month into his stay in Myrtle Beach, Roof is doing two things: Not playing frequently, and not playing well when he does play. Both of which damage his growth potential. Considering he was an 8th rounder last year as a Junior out of Michigan State, the Rangers have a lot more invested in him than they do Swift, and as such shouldn't be wasting his chance to grow. With Swift, the team took a flyer on him out of college and he is shining. If you place him in Myrtle Beach, even if he fails, at least you aren't costing yourself a large chunk of change. If he succeeds, you are in fact boosting his stock and making value on an undrafted player. Meanwhile, Jonathan Roof (the 8th rounder) has spent a month in Myrtle Beach, where he has played in 10 games, and had 36 at-bats, racking up a solid...four hits. 

As for Andres James, the other backup infielder in Myrtle, he is repeating the high-A level, and isn't doing it well. He has appeared in 61 games, hitting a pathetic .221 and walking only 4 times in 195 at-bats. For someone the same age as Swift (in fact older), James is doing nothing that Swift couldn't do himself. In fact, in his career James has done nothing to inspire confidence in his bat. He has never once had an OBP over .300... at any level. His career high in walks in 11. And that season he hit .199. 

So why are James and Roof playing in Myrtle Beach, while Jimmy Swift toils away in 110 degree Arizona heat? Simple, the Rangers, like many organizations hate to see wasted investments. Yet in reality they need to see this as a two-way investment. They've given six seasons to Andres James to prove himself in those six seasons he has put up the following slash line .235/.258/.277. He has a whopping 39 walks to 287 strike outs. And a career fielding % coming in at .930. He'll be a free agent at the end of the season so why not cut your losses now and give Jimmy Swift a month to show he has value. As for Jonathan Roof, he is still young (22) and has spent his entire career (save a week) in full season ball. He has a ton of value left, but currently is being short-changed development time by playing maybe once a series in Myrtle Beach. Send him back to Hickory and let him play and develop, as well as be prepared for next season.

In the end, it is all about perceived value. In my mind, Major League organizations short-change a lot of players with skill based on the fact that they were undrafted, or had be released, or were found in the independent leagues. The fact of the matter is, they need to treat these kind of players like penny stocks. Buy them low, and give them a chance to play/shine, if they succeed you've made a huge profit, if not you lose very little.