Do you ever sit around wondering, what ever happened to (Insert Player Name)? Well, in this case we are going to be checking in on two players who have fallen off the map recently. One of them was in the playoffs last season, started the year in Japan, was miserable and is now back in the American Minor Leagues, and the other is a pitcher who simply never reached his full potential, but may have a shot to still.
Player A is Brad Penny.
Player B, Oliver Perez.
Both are currently on AAA rosters, and both will likely get another shot at the Major Leagues this season. With that, let's take a look at both, starting with Brad Penny.
Brad Penny has started 315 games in his Major League career, he is 119-99 with a 4.23 ERA over that career, and was a member of the 2003 World Series Champion Marlins. Twice he has won 16 games in his career. Yet at the end of 2011, after a miserable 11-11 season with a 5.30 ERA with the Tigers, Penny found himself at a crossroads.
Penny was unable to find Major League work and wound up agreeing to a deal with the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks in Japan. The Hawks, eager for a recent MLB-caliber player rather than the traditional "AAAA" player snapped Penny up for $3 million USD.
Penny made one appearance in Japan's Major League, lasting 3.1 Innings, allowing 7 hits and 3 walks, he struck out one and allowed 6 runs (4 earned). After his release his Japanese manager stated, "Penny... It is unfortunate. But part of it is his feelings and then there is also his shoulder. It can not be helped."
But the San Francisco Giants didn't seem to mind, or notice, signing him to a minor league deal a week later, and proclaiming, "It just didn't work out. He wasn't happy where he was over there. He wanted to come back here. The shoulder or elbow, that's not an issue. He showed it today in the bullpen. We'll make sure he is healthy and make sure he will help us. It'll take a little time. When he thinks he's ready and he thinks he's ready, it'll be a mutual agreement, and we'll have him here to help us."
After three weeks in extended spring, Penny joined the AAA Fresno Grizzlies. His first appearance wasn't pretty, he got only one out, allowing 2 hits and 2 walks, and ultimately getting credited with 5 runs (3 earned). His second appearance, two days later was much cleaner, one quick inning, 11 pitches, 10 strikes. He hit 95 on the gun and had no issues sitting down the Salt Lake Bees in order. If Penny is indeed healthy and can sit around 93-95 consistently in short outings, I could see him being an attribute to the Giants bullpen down the stretch.
(H/T to YakyuBaku for the wonderful Japanese coverage and the Penny quotes)
___________________________________________________________________________
Oliver Perez is another interesting tale. Perez was released in 2010 by the New York Mets with $12 million remaining on his contract. He joined the Nationals on a minor league deal, and pitched in 16 games (15 starts) for the Harrisburg Senators (AA). He was effective, albeit without his best stuff, posting a 3.09 ERA over the 16 outings. But reports out of Harrisburg had his fastball in the mid-80s. Down from the low-to-mid 90's during his peak. He spent the winter in his native Mexico pitching in the Winter League and things began to turn around.
Re-inventing himself as a lefty-reliever Perez posted a 0.63 ERA in 14.1 innings in the Mexican League. The Seattle Mariners (although they have a ton of left-handed relievers) gave him an opportunity and he joined the team on a minor-league deal worth up to $1 million if he makes the MLB Roster eventually. On June 13th, I was able to see Perez in short-relief and sure enough the fastball was back. He sat at 93-95 through his inning of work and was pleasantly surprised to see Perez.
As for Perez, during an interview with the Mariners during Spring Training he was quoted as saying, "Sometimes I'd see the [radar] gun at the games and it would be 92-94 and that felt good, because the past three years I was 85-87," he said. "That made me really happy, because I worked really hard and all that is paying off."
Now then, as a lefty-reliever it'll be crucial that he can get left-handed hitters out with regularity. So far that is not quite true, with AAA Tacoma this season Perez has faced 60 lefties and allowed only 13 hits, but he has walked 8 of them, meaning that 21 of the 60 Plate Appearances have resulted in baserunners (.250 batting average, and .350 OBP). He has struck out 24 of those 60 batters though, and if he can begin to harness that stuff, he may be able to have a future as a lefty-reliever after all.
Friday, June 15, 2012
AAA Sleeper: Steve Geltz
As the summer begins to pick-up, I am hoping my coverage will pick-up as well. In today's first post I'll be covering AAA Sleeper, Steve Geltz.
As you may have gotten from previous posts, or just knowing my style in general, I am not the kind of person interested in covering the players that all the major publications cover. Quite frankly it doesn't interest me as much as talking about the sleepers! So with that let's talk about Steve Geltz.
Steve Geltz is the absolute definition of sleeper. In 2008, he went undrafted out of the University of Buffalo (not exactly a baseball hotbed) but was signed by the LA Angels. Now Geltz has some definitive "issues" he is right-handed, and small (listed at 5'10 170). He also was suspended for a month last season for an unspecified disciplinary issue (H/T MonkeyWithAHalo, Angels Blog). But the fact of the matter is, Geltz produces.
I'm a big fan of underdogs, and I'm an even bigger fan of pitchers who can strike-out a ton of guys. That fits Geltz to a T.
In his first four seasons pro he has struck out 315 batters in only 226 innings. In other words a 12.56 K/9. He has also only issued 91 walks over that span, 3.63 BB/9. Meaning he is striking out 3.46 batters per walk. Those splits are incredibly favorable for any pitcher, of any size. And did I mention he has only allowed 164 hits during those 226 innings. Meaning his WHIP (for his CAREER) is 1.13. Impressive.
This season though, has been even more impressive. 26 outings, 31.1 IP, 14 HITS, 1 ER, 44 K's/8 BB's. In AA and AAA.
He'll be 24 for the entire season and Rule V eligible if not added to the 40-man this off-season for the second consecutive season, but this time I expect he might get some looks.
So what about his "stuff".
I watched his game on 6/14/12 and he hit 96 MPH out of the bullpen, but for the most part sat 91-93. I wasn't behind home for this game so I couldn't actually tell you what he was throwing breaking wise, but it came in at around the low 80's and was effective at keeping the Fresno hitters off balance. Hopefully later this month i'll catch him again from behind home and be able to update this.
Thus far this season he has faced 117 hitters, 44 have struck out. That's a 37.6% K Rate.
With the Angels bullpen needing reinforcement I could see Geltz making his way into the bullpen this season. Yes he is undersized, yes he had disciplinary issues (reportedly), and yes...he has dominated.
As you may have gotten from previous posts, or just knowing my style in general, I am not the kind of person interested in covering the players that all the major publications cover. Quite frankly it doesn't interest me as much as talking about the sleepers! So with that let's talk about Steve Geltz.
Steve Geltz is the absolute definition of sleeper. In 2008, he went undrafted out of the University of Buffalo (not exactly a baseball hotbed) but was signed by the LA Angels. Now Geltz has some definitive "issues" he is right-handed, and small (listed at 5'10 170). He also was suspended for a month last season for an unspecified disciplinary issue (H/T MonkeyWithAHalo, Angels Blog). But the fact of the matter is, Geltz produces.
I'm a big fan of underdogs, and I'm an even bigger fan of pitchers who can strike-out a ton of guys. That fits Geltz to a T.
In his first four seasons pro he has struck out 315 batters in only 226 innings. In other words a 12.56 K/9. He has also only issued 91 walks over that span, 3.63 BB/9. Meaning he is striking out 3.46 batters per walk. Those splits are incredibly favorable for any pitcher, of any size. And did I mention he has only allowed 164 hits during those 226 innings. Meaning his WHIP (for his CAREER) is 1.13. Impressive.
This season though, has been even more impressive. 26 outings, 31.1 IP, 14 HITS, 1 ER, 44 K's/8 BB's. In AA and AAA.
He'll be 24 for the entire season and Rule V eligible if not added to the 40-man this off-season for the second consecutive season, but this time I expect he might get some looks.
So what about his "stuff".
I watched his game on 6/14/12 and he hit 96 MPH out of the bullpen, but for the most part sat 91-93. I wasn't behind home for this game so I couldn't actually tell you what he was throwing breaking wise, but it came in at around the low 80's and was effective at keeping the Fresno hitters off balance. Hopefully later this month i'll catch him again from behind home and be able to update this.
Thus far this season he has faced 117 hitters, 44 have struck out. That's a 37.6% K Rate.
With the Angels bullpen needing reinforcement I could see Geltz making his way into the bullpen this season. Yes he is undersized, yes he had disciplinary issues (reportedly), and yes...he has dominated.
Wednesday, June 6, 2012
Draft Sleeper Day 3
Yesterday I touched on Parker Morin, the Royals 14th Round selection. Today I am touching on another catcher, Chris Cowell, the 1038 pick in the 34th from the University of Richmond by the Colorado Rockies.
Cowell is immediately different from Morin in the sense that he is a senior and spent all four years at the NCAA D1 Level.
He is also different in the size category. Cowell stands 6'4" and weighs in at 215. Height wise that puts him in line with Jarrod Saltalamacchia. In other words, he is tall, and for the most part catchers aren't nearly that tall.
Cowell finished second in the nation with 20 homeruns this season. He did that in 7 games fewer than the overall leader. The biggest hole in the game though is clearly the swing and miss percentage. He finished this season with 74 strikeouts in 210 at-bats (35.2%). That percentage does not bode well for Cowell. To put it in perspective, Mark Reynolds in college struck out in only 25.3% of his at-bats. In general players who swing and miss that frequently in college do not succeed in the pro game.
The fact of the matter though is he does generate a ton of power. This season when he wasn't striking out, he was mashing the ball all over the country. 38 XBH's out of 57 hits. In other words, 66.6% of his hits were either a double or a homer. 19 singles. 20 homers. 18 doubles. Add in his walks, which he had 40 of this season, and you get an interesting outlook on his skill... In 250 Plate Appearances Cowell, reached base and advanced any runners (in other words had a base hit or walked) in 38.8% of his appearances.
38.8% Reached Via Hit or Walk
29.6% Struckout (Failed to put ball into play)
31.6% Created an out with the ball in play
What this goes to show is that Cowell can have value as a hitter. Despite the high-rate of strike outs, 15.2% of his 250 Plate Appearances resulted in extra bases. In other words, he was putting himself into scoring position with one swing 15.2% of his appearances.
To compare this to the whiff-king in the Majors, Mark Reynolds during his final season at UVA.
Reynolds and Cowell had identical .387 OBP's in the final season of college ball, so it makes for an interesting comparison.
Reynolds
34.7% Reached Via Hit or Walk
20.3% Struckout (Failed to put ball into play)
45% Created an out with the ball in play
Furthermore, only 9.3% of his at-bats resulted in extra bases.
Now, Cowell and Reynolds are not the same player. Richmond is a small A10 school. They play one ACC game a season. UVA is one of the strongest baseball programs in the nation, in one of the best conferences. But what this goes to show is that Cowell can produce at a good clip, despite the high-rate of strikeouts.
Defensively he has never been a top-notch receiver, but he is a solid catcher. He threw out a total of 22.4% of potential base runners over his four year career. That average was consistant throughout his career at Richmond, and leads me to believe that it is relatively accurate. That said, because of his size and arm strength, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rockies move him to 1B or LF where his skills may play up a little better.
Needless to say, if you are a Rockies fan, Chris Cowell is a solid 34th rounder. And if the strikeouts can be minimized the Rockies may have a steal.
Cowell is immediately different from Morin in the sense that he is a senior and spent all four years at the NCAA D1 Level.
He is also different in the size category. Cowell stands 6'4" and weighs in at 215. Height wise that puts him in line with Jarrod Saltalamacchia. In other words, he is tall, and for the most part catchers aren't nearly that tall.
Cowell finished second in the nation with 20 homeruns this season. He did that in 7 games fewer than the overall leader. The biggest hole in the game though is clearly the swing and miss percentage. He finished this season with 74 strikeouts in 210 at-bats (35.2%). That percentage does not bode well for Cowell. To put it in perspective, Mark Reynolds in college struck out in only 25.3% of his at-bats. In general players who swing and miss that frequently in college do not succeed in the pro game.
The fact of the matter though is he does generate a ton of power. This season when he wasn't striking out, he was mashing the ball all over the country. 38 XBH's out of 57 hits. In other words, 66.6% of his hits were either a double or a homer. 19 singles. 20 homers. 18 doubles. Add in his walks, which he had 40 of this season, and you get an interesting outlook on his skill... In 250 Plate Appearances Cowell, reached base and advanced any runners (in other words had a base hit or walked) in 38.8% of his appearances.
38.8% Reached Via Hit or Walk
29.6% Struckout (Failed to put ball into play)
31.6% Created an out with the ball in play
What this goes to show is that Cowell can have value as a hitter. Despite the high-rate of strike outs, 15.2% of his 250 Plate Appearances resulted in extra bases. In other words, he was putting himself into scoring position with one swing 15.2% of his appearances.
To compare this to the whiff-king in the Majors, Mark Reynolds during his final season at UVA.
Reynolds and Cowell had identical .387 OBP's in the final season of college ball, so it makes for an interesting comparison.
Reynolds
34.7% Reached Via Hit or Walk
20.3% Struckout (Failed to put ball into play)
45% Created an out with the ball in play
Furthermore, only 9.3% of his at-bats resulted in extra bases.
Now, Cowell and Reynolds are not the same player. Richmond is a small A10 school. They play one ACC game a season. UVA is one of the strongest baseball programs in the nation, in one of the best conferences. But what this goes to show is that Cowell can produce at a good clip, despite the high-rate of strikeouts.
Defensively he has never been a top-notch receiver, but he is a solid catcher. He threw out a total of 22.4% of potential base runners over his four year career. That average was consistant throughout his career at Richmond, and leads me to believe that it is relatively accurate. That said, because of his size and arm strength, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rockies move him to 1B or LF where his skills may play up a little better.
Needless to say, if you are a Rockies fan, Chris Cowell is a solid 34th rounder. And if the strikeouts can be minimized the Rockies may have a steal.
Tuesday, June 5, 2012
Draft Sleepers
June 4-6, 2012. Three of my favorite days of the year... Or in my case, more so, June 5th and 6th. The second and third days of the MLB Rule 4 Amateur Draft. The days when college and high school baseball players get to finally pursue a lifelong dream of professional baseball and the days that scouting departments around the country countdown to. Here at AltitudeSportsGroup, I try to always focus on the things that don't always get coverage. The little details, the unknowns, the independent stars. Things that mainstream media may not consider. I don't usually tread on the yellow line. I try to always make my own path. With my assessment of the MLB Draft, that is no different.
For example this year, before the draft began I tweeted (@AltitudeSports) the following:
I tend to say what I feel. And in this case, I was thrilled to see the Astros agreed with me.
That said, I tend to avoid the first round entirely. The major media outlets will cover that MUCH better than I can.
That said yesterday I also tweeted the following.
For example this year, before the draft began I tweeted (@AltitudeSports) the following:
- If it isn't Appel, I'm going with Correa. Slick big SS. Correa also dominated in Perfect Game showcases against other first rounders.
- I'll go ahead and make this prediction. Albert Almora will be a better player than Byron Buxton. Furthermore I think Correa is best of HS.
I tend to say what I feel. And in this case, I was thrilled to see the Astros agreed with me.
That said, I tend to avoid the first round entirely. The major media outlets will cover that MUCH better than I can.
That said yesterday I also tweeted the following.
- In a draft short on catchers here are two names to think about later in the draft. Parker Morin out of U Utah. And Chris Cowell of Richmond.
- Cowell is a big power bat. Top 10 HRs in nation this season. Tons of swing and miss though. Solid defensively. Senior, wasn't drafted in '11.
- Morin is a Left-handed bat who was a switch hitter up until this season. Was PAC-12 honorable mention this season. Best hitter on a bad team.
Today in the 14th round, with the 433 selection, the Kansas City Royals selected Parker Morin. Great pick-up in my mind, and here is my reasoning.
Morin is 5'10 195. I suspect he will continue to bulk up as he has a short stocky build. I'd project him to round out at around Brayan Pena's size. When you see Morin you know immediately he is a catcher.
He spent two years at the JuCo College of Southern Idaho where as a freshman he hit .255/.383/.396 and as a sophomore hit an impressive, .372/.416/.534. Keep in mind the JuCo league that Southern Idaho plays in, is a wood-bat league. The kid can hit.
In 2012, he began his stay at the University of Utah, the Pac-12's weakest team. Parker started every single game of the season for the University of Utah and was an All-Pac12 Honorable Mention this season. With the Utes, Morin led the team in hitting by batting .314/.353/.414. The talent stepped up in his league, and Morin batted clean-up for a very bad team. In other words, he wasn't given the best pitches to hit.
He is a pretty solid contact hitter, but doesn't exactly have great speed or power. As such his future may be as more of a defensive-minded contact hitting catcher. One issue he will run into is that he doesn't walk a ton. That said, he also isn't a big swing and miss guy. Again though this plays up the fact that he is a contact-hitter.
Take a look at some of these break downs from his three college seasons.
Strikeouts/Walks
2010: 20/21 (106 AB) 18.8% of AB's resulted in K.
2011: 11/16 (191 AB) 5.7% of AB's resulted in K.
2012: 29/13 (212 AB) 13.7% of AB's resulted in K.
XBHits (2B/3B/HR)
2010: 5/2/2 (27 H/106 AB) 8.5% of AB's resulted in XBHits. 33.3% of Hits XB.
2011: 14/4/3 (71 H/191 AB) 11.0% of AB's resulted in XBHits. 29.5% of Hits XB.
2012: 11/1/3 (69 H/212 AB) 7.1% of AB's resulted in XBHits. 21.7% of Hits XB.
The biggest issue that stands out to me here is that while Morin doesn't strike out frequently, 11.8% for his college career, he doesn't have gap power either, 8.8% of his AB's resulted in XBs. That singles contact has to turn into Gap Power in order for Morin to sustain a career. Over the past three seasons he has regressed in terms of XBHits, but has shown signs that he can he the ball well. One fear I have is that both the University of Utah and College of Southern Idaho are high-altitude parks. As such the ball should fly better there.
So if the hitting isn't awesome, what will make him a valuable player? DEFENSE!
I briefly mentioned defense early, so here is where I think the Royals got a good steal in Morin. I've managed to scout a couple of his games in both High School and College and was always impressed by what he brought to the table. This past year with the University of Utah he displayed a pop time of 1.9, which is right in the middle of the Major League Average. He displays great footwork and seems to have a great grasp of the game.
He committed a total of 8 errors in his college career in 918 chances. A .991% Fielding%.
Most impressively base-stealers were caught at an improving clip each season and at a total percentage of 35.3%. His best season behind the plate was with the University of Utah, facing the top talents in the Pac-12.
2010: 12/40 (30.0%) Caught Stealing (Fun, albeit worthless, fact, As a freshman Morin was 0 for 2 at attempting to catch Bryce Harper stealing...)
2011: 27/80 (33.8%)
2012: 33/84 (39.3%)
Totals: 72/204 (35.3%)
He is an incredibly down to earth kid and he gets it. Hard work and determination go a long way in this game and I think that Morin will be a great value pick for the Royals in the 14th Round.
Consider this, the Royals past 14th rounders have produced a total of 6 Major Leaguers. The most recent, Devon Lowery. Who has managed 4 innings in the Majors. Since Lowery the highest level a 14th Round Royals selection has reached was Steve Kent who reached AAA in 2010 for Seattle. And lasted only three years in the Royals system. Other than him, only one player has reached High-A. Morin is already at the Low-A level, so I'll go out on a limb and say he will be the first player since Kent to reach AA. That said, I don't expect that before the 2014 season. At the earliest I foresee a late 2015 arrival at the Major League Level if things progress the way they have been for Morin.
Now, let's tap the breaks a little. Do I foresee him as a future Major League All-Star, no. Do I think he'll be an everyday starter in the Majors, again, no. Do I think he has the potential to be a solid Major League backup. Definitely. Think of him along the lines of Matt Treanor, a solid defensive minded back-up catcher who can play at the Major League Level. Now ask yourself, would you take that out of your 14th round selection?
Saturday, April 7, 2012
Stone Crabs vs. Miracle 4/6/12
Hey guys, totally new spin on this today. I'll be in Fort Myers for the next month or so, and as such i'll be catching as many Miracle games as possible. I keep detailed notes of all the games I attend, so I figured I might as well share them here.
Here they are as posted to TwinsDaily and RaysProspects.
I'd love to hear some thoughts if you have any!
STONECRABS (RAYS PROSPECTS)
Here they are as posted to TwinsDaily and RaysProspects.
I'd love to hear some thoughts if you have any!
STONECRABS (RAYS PROSPECTS)
4/6/12 Charlotte Stone Crabs Report.
Greetings, just wanted to throw up my thoughts on the game from last night (4/6). I do want to clarify, I am not a scout, I do not pretend to be an internet scout. Just a passionate fan, with an eye for detail. I watched this game, scored it, and took notes on various players.
Without further ado, the report.
Pitchers:
Enny Romero:
Just by looking at him he has the size with ample room to grow (though I noted his body is slightly odd, he has a big behind but overall wiry frame, just looks out of place). Without knowing much of him you can tell this guy is special. He throws heat! That said he does have a long and slow delivery that could become an issue at higher levels. In the first inning he hit 93-96 pretty consistently, and touched 97 twice, 98 once, and 99 once. Impressive heat. Especially when it dawned on me he is left handed. He repeated his delivery really well in the first inning, but that fell apart in the second and third innings. When he nails the delivery he looks unhittable, but when he misses things get ugly. When he falls behind in the count he slows things down and throws 90-92, which is still fine for a LHP but I don't like the dramatic drop in order to throw strikes.
He walked 3, allowed 2 hits, and struck out five in three innings, but what really impressed me was his ability to get ahead. He threw first-pitch strikes to 11 of the 15 batters he faced (73.3%), that said he only threw 42 total strikes on 72 pitches (58.3%). So eliminating the first pitch of a PA, he threw 57 pitches, and 31 strikes (54.3%). At the moment there is no reason to not think he won't continue to develop as a starting pitcher. I profile him as a potential #2 starter. If he cannot become more consistent with the delivery I still see him being a solid back-end of the rotation option, set-up reliever. Any lefty that can crank it up into the upper 90s I am a fan of!
Eliazer Suero:
He caught my eye quickly because of the way he worked. I describe it as working backwards, in his first inning of work he threw primarily all breaking balls, with great success. His fastball only sits at 89-91 and as such isn't a plus pitch. His first inning was pretty, but in the second he reversed course and threw a ton of fastballs with little success. In the third he went back to the breaking stuff and again was successful. In the fourth inning of his work the wildness returned, as he went back to fastballs and change-ups with little success. Overall he threw four innings, struck out 5, walked 3 and allowed 1 hit. He only threw 54.3% of pitches for strikes throw, and this is troubling. I wish I had tracked balls and strikes by pitch, but he rarely threw his Change-Up or Fastball for a strike. That said his breaking pitch was almost always around the zone or swung-at out of the zone. Seems odd to me, and I suspect he will have to establish a fastball to succeed at higher levels.
Victor Mateo:
Long, lean body. Works quickly. Was throwing 90-92 with the fastball. He kept the ball on the infield and was effective. Started his outing with a four pitch walk, but then threw strikes on 24 of his next 32 pitches over two innings.
Others
Luke Bailey:
Without knowing anything about him, I'd be scared. After reading up on his elbow reconstruction and his 40% CS rate last year as a catcher... I am down-right worried. I hope what I saw was an anomaly but boy was it ugly. Below average catching skills, but even worse, struggles with basic throws. During the throw-down at the end of warmups he overthrew second-base three times (as in soared the ball to centerfield). After a strike-out on an attempt to go around the horn he soared another well over the 3B and into left-field. At the beginning of the fourth inning he failed to get the ball back to the pitcher after a warm-up pitch. Finally the ninth was just comical. He nailed a perfect throw to second at the end of warm-ups, only for the second basemen to miss it completely as he was expecting a throw high. Then once a batter reached during the inning he blocked a pitch in the dirt, and proceeded to throw the ball a good 15 feet over the shortstops head who was covering on the steal attempt. SCARY. Good news is he is a solid hitter with a good frame, throwing up 3 quality ABs tonight. I hope the fielding issues were a mirage.
Mikie Mahtook:
Baseball America says his arm rates as "average" in CF... Well, it certainly doesn't rate as average in RF. I'm a big-fan of Mahtook the hitter, but Mahtook the outfielder not so much. His arm in my book would rate as below-average with weak lofting throws (Today was the third time I'd seen him in action after seeing him twice this spring).
Riccio Torrez:
Just a quick thought, smooth, kinda sexy fielder. Really strong arm and fluid motions as a fielder!
MIRACLE (TWINS PROSPECTS)
PITCHERS
Pat Dean:
Pat Dean:
Dean started the game and was quite efficient throughout the game. The lefty out of Boston College is making a return to the Fort after throwing 58 innings here last year. Tonight he was working between 87-92 with his fastball. He has a small frame and slight body but he pounds the strike-zone and fires strikes with his fastball. He needed only 67 pitches to get through 6 quality innings, and threw 50 strikes (74.6%). What I found interesting is that the first batter of the game, an eventual strikeout looking, started with an 11-pitch AB in which is took two balls, fouled off eight and then eventually went down looking. If you eliminate that first AB of the game, Dean recorded 17 outs in a span of 56 pitches. Throwing 41 strikes on those 56 pitches. He most likely tops out as a long reliever or 5th starter down the round.
Bruce Pugh:
Bruce Pugh:
The righty is back for his third stint in Fort Myers, 2010 as a starter, and 2011 as an all-star reliever, was the first option out of the pen tonight. He throws hard, 94-95, with the occasional 85 MPH change-up mixed in. But his stuff is straight, and was ripped in four consecutive ABs to start his appearance. The box score will show he allowed four hits, and four runs, but only three were earned. In reality this could have easily been five hits and four earned. He was charged with an error on a chopped ball that he mishandled and couldn't get the out. He is only 23, but three consecutive seasons at one level is never a good sign.
Caleb Thielbar:
Caleb Thielbar:
The first player the Twins have ever signed from the St. Paul Saints, Caleb Thielbar came out of the pen for the 8th and 9th inning and was pretty effective. The lefty sits at 90-93 MPH (touching 94 to the second batter he faced) and throws a low 80s slider. He did hit two batters, but otherwise was pretty effective, throwing 70% of his pitches for strikes. He threw 7.1 innings at the end of last year for Fort Myers allowing only one hit over that time. At 25 he is not really a prospect, but if the Rock Cats need an arm at some point I wouldn't be surprised if Thielbar were given that opportunity.
OTHERS
Daniel Santana:
OTHERS
Daniel Santana:
I'll get called crazy, but Santana reminds me somewhat of Alexi Casilla. He runs well (though he was caught 15 times on 39 attempts last year), and sets the table really well for the guys after him. He had three of the games four hits today, and also stole a base. All five of his at-bats today were quality ABs, and I was really impressed with him. He is listed at 170, but I suspect that's a stretch. He was the #20 prospect in the 2011 Prospect Handbook, but goes unlisted this season. He is a sleeper.
Oswaldo Arcia:
Oswaldo Arcia:
I saw him a couple times this spring, and I love that he was the youngest player in Major League camp. I didn't see much from him at the plate today (he struck out twice, walked once and was hit by a pitch) but he has a cannon from Right Field. He should be able to reach double digit assists from RF.
Thursday, January 19, 2012
The Dominican Dilemma
In the last 5 months Major League Baseball has been rocked by two age-scandals involving star players. In September, the Miami Marlins placed Leo Nunez on the restricted list. Later in the month it was revealed that Leo Nunez was actually Juan Carlos Oviedo, and was 18 months older than originally thought. Then just today January 19th, the Cleveland Indians learn, Fausto Carmona, wasn't actually Fausto Carmona, but rather, Roberto Hernandez Heredia. On top of that, he wasn't 28 but rather 31.
No then here comes the interesting twist... Why would a player falsify his information? Simple answer, money.
Take it from Edward Mujica (Oviedo's good friend and teammate with the Marlins) "[a]t 17 years old, you maybe lose $100,000 or $150,000 when you sign [compared to a 16-year-old with the same skills]. And if you're like 18, you might sign for $5,000 and maybe they give you an opportunity."
He is completely right, teams love taking risks on 16-year olds, pumping millions a year into the international free agent market, but they also rarely pay much for 18-year olds, despite the fact that they are essentially the same age as a high school player.
Now with the new CBA spending in the international market may be curtailed. And within the next few years we may see an international draft. That said, the international draft may have some major consequences (I personally am not a fan of the International Draft), especially because of the 18-year old age and high school graduation rules put in place in the 1990's when the MLB added Puerto Rico to the Rule 4 draft.
So with that said, what is the easiest solution?
In my mind the solution will come when teams begin to realie a couple things: Dominican players (and all foreign players) are currently being signed at 16-years of age. Fausto Carmona signed when the Indians thought he was 16, in 2000. Now it has been revealed he was 19. That said, his development speed was very similar to a college junior draftee. He reached the majors at 25, and dominated the AL at 26. Five years later he is still a pretty decent pitcher but is he worth the $8 million dollar option the Indians just picked up? Well that's tricky, I didn't think he was before I knew he was 31, so now that he is actually 31 it definitely seems flawed.
Oviedo on the other hand is a different story, in the same year (2000) that the Indians signed the 19-year old Heredia (nee Carmona), the Pirates signed the 17-year old Oviedo (nee Nunez). Oviedo reached the majors in 2005 as a 22 year old (essentially the same route most high-round, successful high-school picks take), and broke through as a 25 year old. He'll be 29 this season and is still expected to be an effective closer for the Marlins (Assuming he gets a Visa).
There is no simple answer to the dilemma. The new CBA will limit the overall spending, but that coupled with the potential international draft could create even more age-issues and tampering. My solution is merely to continue to provide Dominican kids with the opportunity to be seen. The Dominican Summer League is a great place for MLB teams to develop Dominican talent, but what is missing is teams that are unaffiliated.
If you asked a scout how much he'd be willing to sign a 19-year old who as a 26-year old would go 19-7 with a 3.06 ERA in the MLB you'd almost certainly hear first round numbers. After all 19 is the age of a college freshman.
Or how about a 17-year old who by 28 would have 317 MLB Appearances and 92 saves. His value may be a little less, but nonetheless he'd be worth top round money.
But if you told the same scout it was a Dominican kid who no one signed as a 16-year old, and he didn't know the future results you'd hear offers similar to that of a late round college senior.
As such my solution is simply, add two teams to the DSL that are sponsored by the MLB and feature talent that is under 20, but unsigned. Any MLB club can sign the players at anytime for $25,000 (5X greater than the average over 16-year old in the Dominican). What this does is it allows these players to continue to play under the watchful eye of Major League Baseball and helps lessen the burden of falsifying information. Is this solution perfect? No, it is far from it. But what other options are out there? I want to hear your ideas.
Drop me a tweet @AltitudeSports
'Til The Inspiration Strikes Again, 2012 is right around the corner.
No then here comes the interesting twist... Why would a player falsify his information? Simple answer, money.
Take it from Edward Mujica (Oviedo's good friend and teammate with the Marlins) "[a]t 17 years old, you maybe lose $100,000 or $150,000 when you sign [compared to a 16-year-old with the same skills]. And if you're like 18, you might sign for $5,000 and maybe they give you an opportunity."
He is completely right, teams love taking risks on 16-year olds, pumping millions a year into the international free agent market, but they also rarely pay much for 18-year olds, despite the fact that they are essentially the same age as a high school player.
Now with the new CBA spending in the international market may be curtailed. And within the next few years we may see an international draft. That said, the international draft may have some major consequences (I personally am not a fan of the International Draft), especially because of the 18-year old age and high school graduation rules put in place in the 1990's when the MLB added Puerto Rico to the Rule 4 draft.
So with that said, what is the easiest solution?
In my mind the solution will come when teams begin to realie a couple things: Dominican players (and all foreign players) are currently being signed at 16-years of age. Fausto Carmona signed when the Indians thought he was 16, in 2000. Now it has been revealed he was 19. That said, his development speed was very similar to a college junior draftee. He reached the majors at 25, and dominated the AL at 26. Five years later he is still a pretty decent pitcher but is he worth the $8 million dollar option the Indians just picked up? Well that's tricky, I didn't think he was before I knew he was 31, so now that he is actually 31 it definitely seems flawed.
Oviedo on the other hand is a different story, in the same year (2000) that the Indians signed the 19-year old Heredia (nee Carmona), the Pirates signed the 17-year old Oviedo (nee Nunez). Oviedo reached the majors in 2005 as a 22 year old (essentially the same route most high-round, successful high-school picks take), and broke through as a 25 year old. He'll be 29 this season and is still expected to be an effective closer for the Marlins (Assuming he gets a Visa).
There is no simple answer to the dilemma. The new CBA will limit the overall spending, but that coupled with the potential international draft could create even more age-issues and tampering. My solution is merely to continue to provide Dominican kids with the opportunity to be seen. The Dominican Summer League is a great place for MLB teams to develop Dominican talent, but what is missing is teams that are unaffiliated.
If you asked a scout how much he'd be willing to sign a 19-year old who as a 26-year old would go 19-7 with a 3.06 ERA in the MLB you'd almost certainly hear first round numbers. After all 19 is the age of a college freshman.
Or how about a 17-year old who by 28 would have 317 MLB Appearances and 92 saves. His value may be a little less, but nonetheless he'd be worth top round money.
But if you told the same scout it was a Dominican kid who no one signed as a 16-year old, and he didn't know the future results you'd hear offers similar to that of a late round college senior.
As such my solution is simply, add two teams to the DSL that are sponsored by the MLB and feature talent that is under 20, but unsigned. Any MLB club can sign the players at anytime for $25,000 (5X greater than the average over 16-year old in the Dominican). What this does is it allows these players to continue to play under the watchful eye of Major League Baseball and helps lessen the burden of falsifying information. Is this solution perfect? No, it is far from it. But what other options are out there? I want to hear your ideas.
Drop me a tweet @AltitudeSports
'Til The Inspiration Strikes Again, 2012 is right around the corner.
Sunday, January 15, 2012
The Stigma of Size
I am a huge proponent of scouts picking one player over another based purely on size and weight. As such it got me thinking about the stigma of size. We've seen players like David Eckstein and Dustin Pedroia succeed, but how many other smaller players have been passed over based purely on size?
In order to analyze this I found the average height and weight of every player on an MLB opening day roster in 2011. For the MLB last season this was 73.27 inches (roughly 6 foot 1 and 1/4 inches) and 206.8 pounds. There was a difference for the National League and the American League as well. In the NL the average was exactly 73.25 inches (6'1 1/4") and 206.75 pounds. In the AL the average height and weight was only slightly different, 73.29 inches, and the weight 206.86. That said, for this this analysis, I will view players in regards to the league they played in.
The first step to assessing this question is I went and found the Top five players according to Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in the AL and NL.
In the AL the top five players were:
- Jose Bautista
- Justin Verlander
- Jacoby Ellsbury
- Miguel Cabrera
- Adrian Gonzalez
In the NL:
- Matt Kemp
- Ryan Braun
- Clayton Kershaw
- Cliff Lee
- Roy Halladay
I then decided to eliminate the first-basemen and the pitchers from this abbreviated study because of the fact that most of them are typically bigger bodies and you don't commonly think of first basemen as "normal" sized players. Because of this I added the following players to the study in the American League.
- Dustin Pedroia
- Evan Longoria
- Alex Gordon
- Mike Napoli
- Alex Avila
- Ian Kinsler
In the National League this added:
- Pablo Sandoval
- Jose Reyes
- Troy Tulowitzki
- Mike Stanton
- Andrew McCutchen
- Lance Berkman
- Hunter Pence
For the sake of the study I also took the four players with 0.0 WAR with the most plate appearances in both the AL and NL and added them to the study. In the AL this added,
- Juan Pierre
- Delmon Young
- Carl Crawford
- Hideki Matsui
In the NL:
- Seth Smith
- Greg Dobbs
- Paul Janish
- Ryan Theriot
For there I simply took a look at those players heights and weights in comparison to the league averages.
What I found was as follows:
OF THE STUDIED 31 Players:
- HEIGHT AVERAGE (72-74) 14 Fall in This Range/6 Below/11 Above
- WEIGHT AVERAGE (200-210) 10 Fall In This Range/7 Below/14 Above
- The AVERAGE 0.0 REPLACEMENT PLAYER in THE AL WAS: 73.5"/200 LBS
- IN THE NL The AVERAGE 0.0 REPLACEMENT PLAYER WAS: 73.25"/198.75 LBS
- FOR THE TOP PLAYERS IN THE AL (NON-1B/P): 72.125"/201.875 LBS
- FOR THE TOP PLAYERS IN THE NL (NON-1B/P): 73.666"/216.111 LBS
In conclusion, my extremely short-hand study found the following conclusions.
For the top eight players in the AL (Non-1B and P): the average height is only 6 Feet and a quarter inch. A full inch shorter than the league average (though keep in mind that the overall league average includes EVERY player) and the average weight, 201.9 pounds is nearly five pounds less than the league average.
In the National League the average height is only around a quarter of an inch less than average, but the average weight is nearly ten pounds greater than league average. In other words, the stars of the National League are heavier than the overall average of the league.
For replacement players (0.0 WAR) the American League players average a slightly taller height (quarter of an inch), but weigh only 200 pounds 6.86 less than average.
For replacement players in the National League (More likely to be defensive replacements, pinch hitters and role-players than those in the AL) the average height is precisely the same as the league average, but the average weight is 8 full pounds less than average.
As such I am concluding size overall is relative at the normal range (6'0"), the overall average of stars is not dramatically different from league averages. That said, weight seems to play a much bigger role than I previously would have thought. For stars in the American League this is seen in the fact that the stars are well below average weight, but the replacement players are of average weight. In the National League the stars have nearly 17 pounds on average over the average replacement player despite only a quarter of an inch size difference between the two groups.
Yes this study was random, yes it is flawed, but I do find the finding interesting.
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