Do you ever sit around wondering, what ever happened to (Insert Player Name)? Well, in this case we are going to be checking in on two players who have fallen off the map recently. One of them was in the playoffs last season, started the year in Japan, was miserable and is now back in the American Minor Leagues, and the other is a pitcher who simply never reached his full potential, but may have a shot to still.
Player A is Brad Penny.
Player B, Oliver Perez.
Both are currently on AAA rosters, and both will likely get another shot at the Major Leagues this season. With that, let's take a look at both, starting with Brad Penny.
Brad Penny has started 315 games in his Major League career, he is 119-99 with a 4.23 ERA over that career, and was a member of the 2003 World Series Champion Marlins. Twice he has won 16 games in his career. Yet at the end of 2011, after a miserable 11-11 season with a 5.30 ERA with the Tigers, Penny found himself at a crossroads.
Penny was unable to find Major League work and wound up agreeing to a deal with the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks in Japan. The Hawks, eager for a recent MLB-caliber player rather than the traditional "AAAA" player snapped Penny up for $3 million USD.
Penny made one appearance in Japan's Major League, lasting 3.1 Innings, allowing 7 hits and 3 walks, he struck out one and allowed 6 runs (4 earned). After his release his Japanese manager stated, "Penny... It is unfortunate. But part of it is his feelings and then there is also his shoulder. It can not be helped."
But the San Francisco Giants didn't seem to mind, or notice, signing him to a minor league deal a week later, and proclaiming, "It just didn't work out. He wasn't happy where he was over there. He wanted to come back here. The shoulder or elbow, that's not an issue. He showed it today in the bullpen. We'll make sure he is healthy and make sure he will help us. It'll take a little time. When he thinks he's ready and he thinks he's ready, it'll be a mutual agreement, and we'll have him here to help us."
After three weeks in extended spring, Penny joined the AAA Fresno Grizzlies. His first appearance wasn't pretty, he got only one out, allowing 2 hits and 2 walks, and ultimately getting credited with 5 runs (3 earned). His second appearance, two days later was much cleaner, one quick inning, 11 pitches, 10 strikes. He hit 95 on the gun and had no issues sitting down the Salt Lake Bees in order. If Penny is indeed healthy and can sit around 93-95 consistently in short outings, I could see him being an attribute to the Giants bullpen down the stretch.
(H/T to YakyuBaku for the wonderful Japanese coverage and the Penny quotes)
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Oliver Perez is another interesting tale. Perez was released in 2010 by the New York Mets with $12 million remaining on his contract. He joined the Nationals on a minor league deal, and pitched in 16 games (15 starts) for the Harrisburg Senators (AA). He was effective, albeit without his best stuff, posting a 3.09 ERA over the 16 outings. But reports out of Harrisburg had his fastball in the mid-80s. Down from the low-to-mid 90's during his peak. He spent the winter in his native Mexico pitching in the Winter League and things began to turn around.
Re-inventing himself as a lefty-reliever Perez posted a 0.63 ERA in 14.1 innings in the Mexican League. The Seattle Mariners (although they have a ton of left-handed relievers) gave him an opportunity and he joined the team on a minor-league deal worth up to $1 million if he makes the MLB Roster eventually. On June 13th, I was able to see Perez in short-relief and sure enough the fastball was back. He sat at 93-95 through his inning of work and was pleasantly surprised to see Perez.
As for Perez, during an interview with the Mariners during Spring Training he was quoted as saying, "Sometimes I'd see the [radar] gun at the games and it would be 92-94 and that felt good, because the past three years I was 85-87," he said. "That made me really happy, because I worked really hard and all that is paying off."
Now then, as a lefty-reliever it'll be crucial that he can get left-handed hitters out with regularity. So far that is not quite true, with AAA Tacoma this season Perez has faced 60 lefties and allowed only 13 hits, but he has walked 8 of them, meaning that 21 of the 60 Plate Appearances have resulted in baserunners (.250 batting average, and .350 OBP). He has struck out 24 of those 60 batters though, and if he can begin to harness that stuff, he may be able to have a future as a lefty-reliever after all.
Friday, June 15, 2012
AAA Sleeper: Steve Geltz
As the summer begins to pick-up, I am hoping my coverage will pick-up as well. In today's first post I'll be covering AAA Sleeper, Steve Geltz.
As you may have gotten from previous posts, or just knowing my style in general, I am not the kind of person interested in covering the players that all the major publications cover. Quite frankly it doesn't interest me as much as talking about the sleepers! So with that let's talk about Steve Geltz.
Steve Geltz is the absolute definition of sleeper. In 2008, he went undrafted out of the University of Buffalo (not exactly a baseball hotbed) but was signed by the LA Angels. Now Geltz has some definitive "issues" he is right-handed, and small (listed at 5'10 170). He also was suspended for a month last season for an unspecified disciplinary issue (H/T MonkeyWithAHalo, Angels Blog). But the fact of the matter is, Geltz produces.
I'm a big fan of underdogs, and I'm an even bigger fan of pitchers who can strike-out a ton of guys. That fits Geltz to a T.
In his first four seasons pro he has struck out 315 batters in only 226 innings. In other words a 12.56 K/9. He has also only issued 91 walks over that span, 3.63 BB/9. Meaning he is striking out 3.46 batters per walk. Those splits are incredibly favorable for any pitcher, of any size. And did I mention he has only allowed 164 hits during those 226 innings. Meaning his WHIP (for his CAREER) is 1.13. Impressive.
This season though, has been even more impressive. 26 outings, 31.1 IP, 14 HITS, 1 ER, 44 K's/8 BB's. In AA and AAA.
He'll be 24 for the entire season and Rule V eligible if not added to the 40-man this off-season for the second consecutive season, but this time I expect he might get some looks.
So what about his "stuff".
I watched his game on 6/14/12 and he hit 96 MPH out of the bullpen, but for the most part sat 91-93. I wasn't behind home for this game so I couldn't actually tell you what he was throwing breaking wise, but it came in at around the low 80's and was effective at keeping the Fresno hitters off balance. Hopefully later this month i'll catch him again from behind home and be able to update this.
Thus far this season he has faced 117 hitters, 44 have struck out. That's a 37.6% K Rate.
With the Angels bullpen needing reinforcement I could see Geltz making his way into the bullpen this season. Yes he is undersized, yes he had disciplinary issues (reportedly), and yes...he has dominated.
As you may have gotten from previous posts, or just knowing my style in general, I am not the kind of person interested in covering the players that all the major publications cover. Quite frankly it doesn't interest me as much as talking about the sleepers! So with that let's talk about Steve Geltz.
Steve Geltz is the absolute definition of sleeper. In 2008, he went undrafted out of the University of Buffalo (not exactly a baseball hotbed) but was signed by the LA Angels. Now Geltz has some definitive "issues" he is right-handed, and small (listed at 5'10 170). He also was suspended for a month last season for an unspecified disciplinary issue (H/T MonkeyWithAHalo, Angels Blog). But the fact of the matter is, Geltz produces.
I'm a big fan of underdogs, and I'm an even bigger fan of pitchers who can strike-out a ton of guys. That fits Geltz to a T.
In his first four seasons pro he has struck out 315 batters in only 226 innings. In other words a 12.56 K/9. He has also only issued 91 walks over that span, 3.63 BB/9. Meaning he is striking out 3.46 batters per walk. Those splits are incredibly favorable for any pitcher, of any size. And did I mention he has only allowed 164 hits during those 226 innings. Meaning his WHIP (for his CAREER) is 1.13. Impressive.
This season though, has been even more impressive. 26 outings, 31.1 IP, 14 HITS, 1 ER, 44 K's/8 BB's. In AA and AAA.
He'll be 24 for the entire season and Rule V eligible if not added to the 40-man this off-season for the second consecutive season, but this time I expect he might get some looks.
So what about his "stuff".
I watched his game on 6/14/12 and he hit 96 MPH out of the bullpen, but for the most part sat 91-93. I wasn't behind home for this game so I couldn't actually tell you what he was throwing breaking wise, but it came in at around the low 80's and was effective at keeping the Fresno hitters off balance. Hopefully later this month i'll catch him again from behind home and be able to update this.
Thus far this season he has faced 117 hitters, 44 have struck out. That's a 37.6% K Rate.
With the Angels bullpen needing reinforcement I could see Geltz making his way into the bullpen this season. Yes he is undersized, yes he had disciplinary issues (reportedly), and yes...he has dominated.
Wednesday, June 6, 2012
Draft Sleeper Day 3
Yesterday I touched on Parker Morin, the Royals 14th Round selection. Today I am touching on another catcher, Chris Cowell, the 1038 pick in the 34th from the University of Richmond by the Colorado Rockies.
Cowell is immediately different from Morin in the sense that he is a senior and spent all four years at the NCAA D1 Level.
He is also different in the size category. Cowell stands 6'4" and weighs in at 215. Height wise that puts him in line with Jarrod Saltalamacchia. In other words, he is tall, and for the most part catchers aren't nearly that tall.
Cowell finished second in the nation with 20 homeruns this season. He did that in 7 games fewer than the overall leader. The biggest hole in the game though is clearly the swing and miss percentage. He finished this season with 74 strikeouts in 210 at-bats (35.2%). That percentage does not bode well for Cowell. To put it in perspective, Mark Reynolds in college struck out in only 25.3% of his at-bats. In general players who swing and miss that frequently in college do not succeed in the pro game.
The fact of the matter though is he does generate a ton of power. This season when he wasn't striking out, he was mashing the ball all over the country. 38 XBH's out of 57 hits. In other words, 66.6% of his hits were either a double or a homer. 19 singles. 20 homers. 18 doubles. Add in his walks, which he had 40 of this season, and you get an interesting outlook on his skill... In 250 Plate Appearances Cowell, reached base and advanced any runners (in other words had a base hit or walked) in 38.8% of his appearances.
38.8% Reached Via Hit or Walk
29.6% Struckout (Failed to put ball into play)
31.6% Created an out with the ball in play
What this goes to show is that Cowell can have value as a hitter. Despite the high-rate of strike outs, 15.2% of his 250 Plate Appearances resulted in extra bases. In other words, he was putting himself into scoring position with one swing 15.2% of his appearances.
To compare this to the whiff-king in the Majors, Mark Reynolds during his final season at UVA.
Reynolds and Cowell had identical .387 OBP's in the final season of college ball, so it makes for an interesting comparison.
Reynolds
34.7% Reached Via Hit or Walk
20.3% Struckout (Failed to put ball into play)
45% Created an out with the ball in play
Furthermore, only 9.3% of his at-bats resulted in extra bases.
Now, Cowell and Reynolds are not the same player. Richmond is a small A10 school. They play one ACC game a season. UVA is one of the strongest baseball programs in the nation, in one of the best conferences. But what this goes to show is that Cowell can produce at a good clip, despite the high-rate of strikeouts.
Defensively he has never been a top-notch receiver, but he is a solid catcher. He threw out a total of 22.4% of potential base runners over his four year career. That average was consistant throughout his career at Richmond, and leads me to believe that it is relatively accurate. That said, because of his size and arm strength, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rockies move him to 1B or LF where his skills may play up a little better.
Needless to say, if you are a Rockies fan, Chris Cowell is a solid 34th rounder. And if the strikeouts can be minimized the Rockies may have a steal.
Cowell is immediately different from Morin in the sense that he is a senior and spent all four years at the NCAA D1 Level.
He is also different in the size category. Cowell stands 6'4" and weighs in at 215. Height wise that puts him in line with Jarrod Saltalamacchia. In other words, he is tall, and for the most part catchers aren't nearly that tall.
Cowell finished second in the nation with 20 homeruns this season. He did that in 7 games fewer than the overall leader. The biggest hole in the game though is clearly the swing and miss percentage. He finished this season with 74 strikeouts in 210 at-bats (35.2%). That percentage does not bode well for Cowell. To put it in perspective, Mark Reynolds in college struck out in only 25.3% of his at-bats. In general players who swing and miss that frequently in college do not succeed in the pro game.
The fact of the matter though is he does generate a ton of power. This season when he wasn't striking out, he was mashing the ball all over the country. 38 XBH's out of 57 hits. In other words, 66.6% of his hits were either a double or a homer. 19 singles. 20 homers. 18 doubles. Add in his walks, which he had 40 of this season, and you get an interesting outlook on his skill... In 250 Plate Appearances Cowell, reached base and advanced any runners (in other words had a base hit or walked) in 38.8% of his appearances.
38.8% Reached Via Hit or Walk
29.6% Struckout (Failed to put ball into play)
31.6% Created an out with the ball in play
What this goes to show is that Cowell can have value as a hitter. Despite the high-rate of strike outs, 15.2% of his 250 Plate Appearances resulted in extra bases. In other words, he was putting himself into scoring position with one swing 15.2% of his appearances.
To compare this to the whiff-king in the Majors, Mark Reynolds during his final season at UVA.
Reynolds and Cowell had identical .387 OBP's in the final season of college ball, so it makes for an interesting comparison.
Reynolds
34.7% Reached Via Hit or Walk
20.3% Struckout (Failed to put ball into play)
45% Created an out with the ball in play
Furthermore, only 9.3% of his at-bats resulted in extra bases.
Now, Cowell and Reynolds are not the same player. Richmond is a small A10 school. They play one ACC game a season. UVA is one of the strongest baseball programs in the nation, in one of the best conferences. But what this goes to show is that Cowell can produce at a good clip, despite the high-rate of strikeouts.
Defensively he has never been a top-notch receiver, but he is a solid catcher. He threw out a total of 22.4% of potential base runners over his four year career. That average was consistant throughout his career at Richmond, and leads me to believe that it is relatively accurate. That said, because of his size and arm strength, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rockies move him to 1B or LF where his skills may play up a little better.
Needless to say, if you are a Rockies fan, Chris Cowell is a solid 34th rounder. And if the strikeouts can be minimized the Rockies may have a steal.
Tuesday, June 5, 2012
Draft Sleepers
June 4-6, 2012. Three of my favorite days of the year... Or in my case, more so, June 5th and 6th. The second and third days of the MLB Rule 4 Amateur Draft. The days when college and high school baseball players get to finally pursue a lifelong dream of professional baseball and the days that scouting departments around the country countdown to. Here at AltitudeSportsGroup, I try to always focus on the things that don't always get coverage. The little details, the unknowns, the independent stars. Things that mainstream media may not consider. I don't usually tread on the yellow line. I try to always make my own path. With my assessment of the MLB Draft, that is no different.
For example this year, before the draft began I tweeted (@AltitudeSports) the following:
I tend to say what I feel. And in this case, I was thrilled to see the Astros agreed with me.
That said, I tend to avoid the first round entirely. The major media outlets will cover that MUCH better than I can.
That said yesterday I also tweeted the following.
For example this year, before the draft began I tweeted (@AltitudeSports) the following:
- If it isn't Appel, I'm going with Correa. Slick big SS. Correa also dominated in Perfect Game showcases against other first rounders.
- I'll go ahead and make this prediction. Albert Almora will be a better player than Byron Buxton. Furthermore I think Correa is best of HS.
I tend to say what I feel. And in this case, I was thrilled to see the Astros agreed with me.
That said, I tend to avoid the first round entirely. The major media outlets will cover that MUCH better than I can.
That said yesterday I also tweeted the following.
- In a draft short on catchers here are two names to think about later in the draft. Parker Morin out of U Utah. And Chris Cowell of Richmond.
- Cowell is a big power bat. Top 10 HRs in nation this season. Tons of swing and miss though. Solid defensively. Senior, wasn't drafted in '11.
- Morin is a Left-handed bat who was a switch hitter up until this season. Was PAC-12 honorable mention this season. Best hitter on a bad team.
Today in the 14th round, with the 433 selection, the Kansas City Royals selected Parker Morin. Great pick-up in my mind, and here is my reasoning.
Morin is 5'10 195. I suspect he will continue to bulk up as he has a short stocky build. I'd project him to round out at around Brayan Pena's size. When you see Morin you know immediately he is a catcher.
He spent two years at the JuCo College of Southern Idaho where as a freshman he hit .255/.383/.396 and as a sophomore hit an impressive, .372/.416/.534. Keep in mind the JuCo league that Southern Idaho plays in, is a wood-bat league. The kid can hit.
In 2012, he began his stay at the University of Utah, the Pac-12's weakest team. Parker started every single game of the season for the University of Utah and was an All-Pac12 Honorable Mention this season. With the Utes, Morin led the team in hitting by batting .314/.353/.414. The talent stepped up in his league, and Morin batted clean-up for a very bad team. In other words, he wasn't given the best pitches to hit.
He is a pretty solid contact hitter, but doesn't exactly have great speed or power. As such his future may be as more of a defensive-minded contact hitting catcher. One issue he will run into is that he doesn't walk a ton. That said, he also isn't a big swing and miss guy. Again though this plays up the fact that he is a contact-hitter.
Take a look at some of these break downs from his three college seasons.
Strikeouts/Walks
2010: 20/21 (106 AB) 18.8% of AB's resulted in K.
2011: 11/16 (191 AB) 5.7% of AB's resulted in K.
2012: 29/13 (212 AB) 13.7% of AB's resulted in K.
XBHits (2B/3B/HR)
2010: 5/2/2 (27 H/106 AB) 8.5% of AB's resulted in XBHits. 33.3% of Hits XB.
2011: 14/4/3 (71 H/191 AB) 11.0% of AB's resulted in XBHits. 29.5% of Hits XB.
2012: 11/1/3 (69 H/212 AB) 7.1% of AB's resulted in XBHits. 21.7% of Hits XB.
The biggest issue that stands out to me here is that while Morin doesn't strike out frequently, 11.8% for his college career, he doesn't have gap power either, 8.8% of his AB's resulted in XBs. That singles contact has to turn into Gap Power in order for Morin to sustain a career. Over the past three seasons he has regressed in terms of XBHits, but has shown signs that he can he the ball well. One fear I have is that both the University of Utah and College of Southern Idaho are high-altitude parks. As such the ball should fly better there.
So if the hitting isn't awesome, what will make him a valuable player? DEFENSE!
I briefly mentioned defense early, so here is where I think the Royals got a good steal in Morin. I've managed to scout a couple of his games in both High School and College and was always impressed by what he brought to the table. This past year with the University of Utah he displayed a pop time of 1.9, which is right in the middle of the Major League Average. He displays great footwork and seems to have a great grasp of the game.
He committed a total of 8 errors in his college career in 918 chances. A .991% Fielding%.
Most impressively base-stealers were caught at an improving clip each season and at a total percentage of 35.3%. His best season behind the plate was with the University of Utah, facing the top talents in the Pac-12.
2010: 12/40 (30.0%) Caught Stealing (Fun, albeit worthless, fact, As a freshman Morin was 0 for 2 at attempting to catch Bryce Harper stealing...)
2011: 27/80 (33.8%)
2012: 33/84 (39.3%)
Totals: 72/204 (35.3%)
He is an incredibly down to earth kid and he gets it. Hard work and determination go a long way in this game and I think that Morin will be a great value pick for the Royals in the 14th Round.
Consider this, the Royals past 14th rounders have produced a total of 6 Major Leaguers. The most recent, Devon Lowery. Who has managed 4 innings in the Majors. Since Lowery the highest level a 14th Round Royals selection has reached was Steve Kent who reached AAA in 2010 for Seattle. And lasted only three years in the Royals system. Other than him, only one player has reached High-A. Morin is already at the Low-A level, so I'll go out on a limb and say he will be the first player since Kent to reach AA. That said, I don't expect that before the 2014 season. At the earliest I foresee a late 2015 arrival at the Major League Level if things progress the way they have been for Morin.
Now, let's tap the breaks a little. Do I foresee him as a future Major League All-Star, no. Do I think he'll be an everyday starter in the Majors, again, no. Do I think he has the potential to be a solid Major League backup. Definitely. Think of him along the lines of Matt Treanor, a solid defensive minded back-up catcher who can play at the Major League Level. Now ask yourself, would you take that out of your 14th round selection?
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