Arizona Fall League 2012

So it’s November, much of America has snow at this point, yet in the great state of Arizona, the Fall League rolls into its final week of the season. I spent the last week taking in games and saw all six of the leagues teams. This article highlights some of the players that impressed me and disappointed me during the Fall League. For those new to my work, I tend to focus on observations. I don’t try to become a “scout” behind the computer screen. Nothing frustrates me more than reading articles by untrained individuals who make absurd claims without any basis, especially when they are statistically based. The current leader in batting and OBP in the Fall League is a guy who played in the Midwest (Low-A) League last year. The leading base-stealer isn’t Billy Hamilton. These are just small examples, but statistics in the Arizona Fall League aren’t quite as relevant as many people believe. They are still valid, but they aren’t a make or break stat for many evaluators. The following observations are based on what I witnessed, what I saw and what was discussed among evaluators. For the sake of privacy and respect for the industry, none of the gentlemen I spoke with will be identified.

With that said, let us begin. I’ve narrowed my notes and observations down to 33 players to cover in this piece. I will also put the organization they are from in parentheses next to their names. If you have any specific questions about any player in the AFL I will do my best to answer them. I didn’t see every player, but at one point or another have seen around 80% of the league now. Finally, as a disclaimer, I sincerely hope all of these guys become Major Leaguers. No matter what I may say or feel about certain prospects, there is no denying that these guys are the best in the world and I wish all of them nothing but the best.

Let’s start with a guy who immediately made me say WOW. George Springer (Astros). A first rounder last year, Springer stood out in 2012 in the California League. He has ridiculous bat speed and uses it to generate plus-power. Pair that with easy 65 speed and Springer is a very intriguing package. I personally witnessed him hit two of the furthest homeruns they have ever seen at Salt River Fields. Springer stands out because of the potential to be a solid outfielder, a plus baserunner and hit above .300. He took a couple interesting routes in Centerfield, but his speed and knowledge allow him to correct for those. He was rated as the Best Outfielder in the California League and long-term he should stick in Center. He put up four extremely quality at-bats in the game I watched, and drew two walks and jacked two homeruns.  He struggled in a short-stint in AA and his strikeout numbers could slow his ascent, but he just turned 23 at the end of the season and should arrive in Houston for good at some point in 2013.

Christian Yelich (Marlins) is a guy I was thrilled to actually see play. I caught his FSL team three times this season but he didn’t play in any of those games. A former Major League Hitting Coordinator couldn’t stop raving about Yelich and it was very obvious why. Yelich produces loud at-bats and makes really solid contact. He isn’t a true power-threat but he sprays the ball well to the gaps and should be able to produce 13-18 homers a season. He is an above-average runner and uses his instincts to take advantage of opposing teams. The only major question mark is if he is a Centerfielder or a Leftfielder. I didn’t get a good look at his arm, but most peg it as slightly below average. He is really fun to watch and you can see why the Marlins think they have a future #3 hitter on their hands.

Changing pace entirely, here is an arm I think has the potential to be a solid bullpen arm in the Majors, Clay Schrader (Orioles). Schrader has an interesting body, standing 5’11” and weighing 200 pounds, but he doesn’t really look out-of-shape. He has struggled with walks throughout his career, 6.91 BB/9, but misses a lot of bats, 12.18 K/9. And keeps the ball in the ballpark (3 HR in 116 career innings). He sits 92-94 with his fastball, but the pitch that generates the strikeouts is his slider, which comes in at 82-85 and has late sharp break. In fact it was rated the best slider in the Orioles system in 2012. In the game I saw he also featured a plus curveball that sat between 80-83. In fact he primarily threw the curve in this outing. He also throws a change-up at 84-85. This is a pure reach, but I think that he will make a good 7^th inning guy in a couple years. I think he’ll open 2013 in Bowie, but if he can refine his command, he’ll be in Norfolk by the middle of the year. Just to throw a name out, his batterymate, Brian Ward (Orioles) shows the potential to be a no-bat, all defense MLB backup. The undrafted Ward has a strong arm (despite a bizarre motion) and gets natural tail on his throws from both the pop position and his knees. Defensively some of the scouts felt he was the best catcher in the AFL and was a definite Major League backup.

The Rangers have an embarrassment of riches in the middle infield. Hanser Alberto (Rangers) adds to that. Despite his listed size of 5’11” 175, he is thicker than you’d expect. The ball comes of his bat loudly and he drives it to all fields well. Some of thoughts I heard on the bat were divided between, “he generates loud at-bats over and over again” and the counter of “that is because of his long-swing.” He doesn’t tend to walk but also doesn’t tend to strike out, rather favoring putting the ball in play and making things happen. He just turned 20 during the fall-league and is in a good position to open 2013 as the AA shortstop for the Rangers. In the field he uses his speed to track down balls and has extremely impressive skills in the field. He earns comparisons to Elvis Andrus at a similar age, but those are unfair as they are not as similar as they appear. For one, Alberto is a better fielder now than Andrus was (24 Errors in 100 games at SS as a 19 yr old for Alberto to 32 in 109 game for Andrus as a 19 year old). For another his approach isn’t very refined and long-term I think he is still at least two full seasons away from the Majors. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Texas move him as they have Luis Sardinas, Roughned Odor and Odubel Herrera behind him.

Another team with a wealth of shortstops is the Reds. Long term, I think Didi Gregorius (Reds) is the answer. There have been rumors that they were considering Gregorius, but this would surprise me. Gregorius will be 23 this season and Cozart will be 27. Gregorius is ready for the Majors defensively and I think the bat is coming around. Defensively Gregorius was easily the most impressive player I saw this week. He makes difficult plays look easy and shows off amazing range and cannon for an arm. He may never be a leadoff hitter, but that’s covered for the Reds anyhow, but I do think that Gregorius could be a great 7^th-8^th hitter and I think his bat isn’t as far behind as some believe. Speaking of the Reds leadoff hitter, it will be Billy Hamilton (Reds) and it will be Hamilton for a long time. I finally got a chance to see Hamilton in person and I was not disappointed. Though he only got credited for one stolen base, he scored twice during 1^st and 3^rd plays that would make you think you were watching little league. His speed also allows him to make great plays in Centerfield. While his arm may limit his throwing strength his speed will allow him to make plays you wouldn’t expect him to make. Speaking of speed, one scout (a former GM) said that he clocked him at 3.3 on a bunt and that it was easily the fastest speed he has ever seen. The havoc he creates on the bases clearly irritates pitchers and catchers and the game of cat and mouse is extremely entertaining.

When you have a pitcher with the systems best changeup and slider you’d think you have a future top of the rotation guy. When that same pitcher has had a couple major injury concerns including Tommy John Surgery, you start to worry. But thus far, despite a limited workload in 2012, Kyle Gibson (Twins) has looked strong and has regained strength, and velocity. Gibson is a big guy, standing 6’6” with a good weight (210).  In the past he sat 89-91, but in the outing I saw him he was sitting 93-94 with the fastball. He also flashes a deceptive changeup and a big wipeout slider that sits 85-86. I think Gibson could be the Twins #5 starter this season with the potential to be a solid #3 if he stays healthy. He has relatively good control and with the additional speed on his fastball, should generate a large amount of strikeouts.

On the opposite side of the prospect spectrum is a pitcher who has drawn very little in terms of praise and comments, but might start popping up on radars in 2013. The Royals Justin Marks (Royals) is that guy. He is a lefty who doesn’t have flashy stuff but he gets things done. His fastball clocks at 91-93 but it was commented and noticed that it sounds and looks much harder than that. He also features a curve, slider and change-up all that rate at around average. And while none of his pitches project as Plus-Plus, he has four pitches that work and he is left-handed. In a Royals system that has some solid arms, Marks will go under-the-radar, but I think he is a solid #5 starter option.

Fun trivia question for you, can you think of any player who over his first three years professionally has drawn more than double the amount of walks (131) as strikeouts (62). Mike O’Neill (Cardinals) has and will continue to do so. O’Neill is the dream leadoff hitter, though his utter lack of power may limit him to more 8^th hitter duty as he progresses. He isn’t really seen as a prospect due to his age (24 in 2012 and in the Florida State League) but he should make the Majors eventually and anytime a 31^st rounder makes the Majors that is seen as a major plus. For his career his OBP is .443 and his SLG is .429 (one career HR), but he puts the ball in play and tends to get hits. He led the FSL in batting average this season and walked 70 times to only 24 strikeouts. I only saw him at the plate, so I cannot make any guesses on his fielding prowess.

Another interesting “non-prospect” due to his age is Chia-Jen Lo (Astros). Lo is  chunky right-hander who is coming off a couple of elbow injuries (red flags) and will be 27 as next year opens. That said, I think he could be a good bullpen arm for the Astros this coming season. Lo’s fastball ranges from 88-96 but typically sits around 92-93. He throws a tight slider (due to his ¾ arm slot this may actually be more of a short-break curve/slurve) at 84-85 that appears to be a strong strikeout offering. He has a change-up and it plays up due to his other offerings.

What do you get when you take a great outfielder with a great arm and a natural athlete and combine them? Jake Marisnick (Blue Jays). Marisnick has great range and a very strong arm. He also displays the potential to have above-average power though currently it is more pop than power. Managers and scouts question if his bat will ever be more than average and it has been noted that he struggles against inside pitches and breaking balls. I didn’t see that in my eight plate appearance sample, but I did see a hitter who jumped on the first opportunity he saw. He went 5-8 but only saw 3 pitches per at-bat and didn’t tend to work counts. He doesn’t strikeout excessively, but he does get beat by above-average pitching. That said: he is a smart guy and a great athlete. He’ll open 2013 in AA again and will likely do much better.

One player I’ve seen a bunch this season is Nick Franklin (Mariners) and he is a great example of sometimes you have to trust evaluators and the numbers. Franklin has never enthralled me and quite frankly I am still not sure he’ll be a solid Major League regular. I tend to think he profiles more as a backup middle infielder who can play an average short-stop and an above-average second base. I don’t think the power he displayed in 2010 as a 19 year old is his true power. I think he is more of a 10-13 homerun type guy who has doubles power. In my sample of him he has some movements in the infield, though the range isn’t fantastic. He is reliable and should be a good bench piece for the Mariners. That said, he’ll be 22 next season and could truly breakout and become a really strong Major League regular. He is just one player that I am not sure where to peg him yet.

A guy whose debut has been slowed by injuries but will likely still shine is Anthony Rendon (Nationals). For now, Rendon is blocked by Ryan Zimmerman but the fact of the matter is Rendon is a Major League caliber 3B. Rendon shows great discipline and takes the pitch where it is meant to go. His bat has the potential to be explosive and the ball takes off. He generates great bat-speed and despite his stature plays like a well-built machine. I suspect he’ll get a full-season of Minor League ball in AA and AAA in 2013 but I think he’ll be a fixture in the Nationals lineup come 2014. His bat alone is enough to make him a good Major Leaguer but add that to his defensive skills and plate recognition and you have a very solid player.

With the Diamondbacks being the local team many of their diehard fans show up to watch them play. They sent a strong class on paper, but I wasn’t that impressed by a couple of their guys. That said, I think Chase Anderson (Diamondbacks) has the potential to be a solid back-end of the rotation arm for the D-backs. Anderson sits 92-93 with his fastball and has a big and loopy curveball. While the curve is a good pitch, evaluators are afraid that the big, loopy break will be a tip off to hitters and it’ll be hit hard at higher levels.

One of the youngest players in the league was also one of the biggest surprises. Catcher Alex Monsalve (Indians) really impressed me with his bat and his approach at the plate. He is only 20, and while for his career is a .257 hitter, Monsalve is more than holding his own against advanced competition. He may not appear on many top prospect lists, but I think he may be a slow-developing play for the Indians. Especially with catchers, you are never sure what you are going to get. In my small sample size, Monsalve put together four quality at-bats and was above-average behind the plate.

Last but certainly not least among the standouts, is one Rymer Liriano (Padres). Liriano is built like a linebacker, but he is fleet of foot and produces rockets with his bat. Defensively Liriano has a very strong arm and uses it effectively. He is not particularly fast, but he is very aware and takes bases well (152 SB in his career, 492 games).  I think he is more likely to land in RF than CF but he is currently playing both and that may continue throughout his career. He is not quite there yet, but he shows signs of being a very solid future MLBer. He is still developing physically and while that may hamper his speed, it will likely boost his power, which may be an ok compromise.

That covers the “players that stood out to me” so now what about the names that “didn’t stand out.”

Let’s start with a part of Heath Bell/Chris Young trade, Yordy Cabrera (Marlins), watching him at 3B was really humorous, he looked lost, made a ton of miscues and overall looked really bad. Then I found out he was a shortstop until he was traded. That made me laugh even harder. I see that he has the arm, but his body is thick and he is not very fluid with his movement. Making matters worth, the bat is pretty far behind and at 22 I think you’ll be see him repeat high-A. Long-term I think he is a first-basemen defensively and without the bat, I don’t see him as a prospect. Sorry Marlins fans.

One of the players I was most excited to see, left him me very disappointed. Kent Matthes (Rockies) caught my eye while I was studying the Rockies system. He has great power, but that is very deceiving. The positives are that he doesn’t really strike out a ton for a power-hitter, the negatives are that I he’ll be 26 next season, he hit .214 in AA and he doesn’t walk. Oh yeah, and he isn’t exactly a good outfielder. His arm struggles and he looks a bit lost (again small sample size). For a bigger guy he does have above-average speed and that may help him transform his game. The worst think I noticed was that his bat looks slow (he has played many more games this year than at any other time in his career, but that is barely over 100) and he drops his hands before swinging (something that was confirmed by evaluators around me). I didn’t get to see the power in person but I am sure it is there, I just don’t think the package needed to surround it is.

Rays fans go ahead and log-off now, I’m about to talk about two of your favorite hitters. Tim Beckham and Hak-Ju Lee (Rays).  Let’s start with Beckham. The biggest reason he appears here is because he was the #1 overall pick. Simply put, I struggle to see him as a first-round talent. Beckham has a great arm and that will help him because his bat isn’t impressive. I read that he has great bat-speed and raw power, but I really don’t see it. In 500 games he has 30 homeruns… and 107 doubles. Most raw power guys are at least capable of doubling. I think he is definitely a second-basemen only but that isn’t a bad thing necessarily. Hak-Ju Lee on the other hand is a great fielder, he displays awesome range and a great first-step but I am not sold on his arm. He made a couple of great stops but couldn’t get the throw to first to convert the out. That said, he is a great fielder and will keep balls on the infield. He has great speed and is a very good baserunner, so why does he appear here? Probably because I had unreal expectations for him. I was hoping to see a future all-star SS with plus-plus skills, but instead saw a guy who I think will be a decent hitter but I struggle to see him as anything more than a bottom of the order batter with plus defense. Kind of like Brendan Ryan. In fact I think that’s a fair comparison.

One thing that always chaps my hide is a player who doesn’t hustle. Maybe it was just a bad day, but Matt Davidson (D-Backs) takes the cake on this one. He has great power (yes), but not running out groundballs pisses me off, especially in a prospect league. Davidson did this twice in one game and as such landed on my didn’t stand out list.

One player I’ve always been high on but I’d never seen in person is Gary Brown (Giants), I finally saw him in person and I see where some of the complaints come from. Brown is a great fielder, and makes great reads in centerfield. That is a major plus in my book. But his funky hitting mechanics look really bad. I’m all for creativity as long as it works, but I question if Brown’s are going to work at the higher levels. He had an up and down year in Richmond and I’m just not as sold as I was on Brown.

When the Braves signed Edward Salcedo (Braves) they hoped they had a Hanley Ramirez on their hands. While he is listed as 6’3”, 195, Salcedo looks overweight. And that’s not a good thing. At third base, he shows off a very strong arm, but also makes mental mistakes that just aren’t ok. He made 42 errors this season, which is alarming, but I think third base is the only spot he can stick long-term. There is a chance he moves to the corner outfield spots, but as of now I struggle to see his bat fitting at the major league level.

Lastly, and most disappointing to me was Nick Castellanos (Tigers). Castellanos is tall, but he looks like a rail, so I am hoping he will fill out some more. And while I read reports he was the best batting prospect in both the Florida State League and the Eastern League, I am not sold. He was very late on a number of pitches in the game I saw him and was being over-powered by pitchers who shouldn’t have over-powered him. He is a definite corner outfielder to me and he has been playing LF for the Solar Sox this fall. Scouts love to dream on power, but I just don’t see him developing into a major power threat. I think he has the potential to be a 10-15 homerun guy, but I just don’t see him as a future home-run derby competitor. I am still convinced he’ll be a very good player, but I am less bullish on him now.

The last two categories are guys that are still very raw and as such anything can happen, and names that were highly spoken of but I didn’t see in person, or didn’t take notes on.

First we have the raw guys, consisting of three infielders and three pitchers. Former Texas State football recruit Jason Martinson (Nationals) is one of those personal favorites. I think Martinson will develop into a very good player. He has good speed and has been very effective on the base paths, but his bat hasn’t come along that quickly. That said, he has power, (22 homers this season) and if the bat picks up he could be a 20-homer .250-.260 threat. Which paired with his speed makes him a 20-20 type player. Will that happen? It is a reach. That is why this raw shortstop makes the list.

Astros prospects Jio Mier and Jarred Cosart (Astros) are the next two on this list. Mier had some injuries this season and was limited to 51 games. He is another one of those guys who was always a SS and is trying 3B for the first time this fall. Mier has a loud swing and I think it’ll produce nicely, but I am not sure 3B is where he fits. Long term, he probably will grow into 3B and that is probably a good fit for him, but for now due to the injury and the new position, Mier is a bit of a mystery. As for Cosart, there is the good, the fastball that sits 96-98 and touched 100. And there is the bad, the inconsistent mechanics and the violent head movement that leads to the ball going all over the place. He has a great fastball in terms of velocity and his curveball is raved about (though he wasn’t getting it over for strikes in this outing). He has four pitches and long-term I think will be a starter. If he cleans up the mechanics and becomes more consistent he may soar. If he doesn’t he may flop. That said, with his velocity and two solid pitches, if he fails as a starter, he still has a shot as a back of the bullpen arm.

My favorite name in baseball Gift Ngoepe (Pirates) is an incredibly talented shortstop, but I saw him at 2B and he looked plenty comfortable there too. That said, the bat and the instincts are still very raw. He has good speed, but doesn’t utilize it well. He has some power, but just tapped it this season. And he swings and misses way too much. I think the skills in the middle infield will keep him around, but the raw bat and the raw baseball IQ may inhibit his growth. That said, I hope he succeeds! Another Pirates prospect, Vic Black (Pirates), also was incredibly disappointing. Black’s going to be Rule V eligible this season but I struggle to believe anyone will take him. He has good velocity with the fastball, 94-96, but he was pounded and has been hit hard all fall. He is also wild and when he does get it over the plate it tends to be right down the heart. His young catcher, Monsalve, was diving all over the place just to keep the balls remotely close to the batters box.

Lastly, Santos Rodriguez (White Sox) is a lefty with a 94-97 MPH fastball. That fact alone will get him some looks, and with the White Sox nearly all rookie bullpen, I wouldn’t be surprised if that look comes next season. Rodriguez is on the raw list because he just looks underdeveloped (6’5’’ 180, much like Alexi Ogando). He throw a slider at 79-82 MPH and a changeup at 84-86 but is wild with them. He also struggles to repeat his delivery and has an extremely wild follow-through. If he can harness these things, I think Rodriguez is a future bullpen arm with nasty left-handed stuff.

Finally, lets touch on five names that evaluators were raving about.

Starting with two Marlins prospects. Jake Realmuto and Kyle Jensen (Marlins), one evaluator who has experience as a Major League Hitting Coach, said that Jensen and Realmuto are both talents that are undervalued. Realmuto he says has a chance to be really special and Jensen displays a great approach and seems to be really willing to learn.

How about two Padres guys now. Cory Spangenberg and Nate Freiman (Padres). One evaluator said if he had to build a system around a player in the AFL currently he said it would be Spangenberg (that is high praise). Nate Freiman gets the scouts excited just based on his size and great power stroke.

To close, here is one prospect who isn’t in the AFL, but nonetheless scouts spent an inning discussing, Jorge Alfaro (Rangers). Alfaro is a catcher with great power and 70 speed. One evaluator said that he felt Alfaro compared well to Miguel Olivo at the same age and as such that is good praise. Another said he may well be the best running catcher in baseball currently.

The Pioneer League Top 20

Well here is is! The culmination of the season I spent covering the Pioneer League. During the season I attend and captured video during 23 Pioneer League games. I want to thank Brett Crane and the Orem Owlz for being fantastic hosts, and keeping things always entertaining.

With that said let's talk a little about this upcoming list. The following list is my take on the league's top 20 prospects. The caveat behind it is that I had to witness every player in person and capture video of his outing (as such all twenty of these guys I have footage of, which I will get posted later). There were only four players I considered that I didn't see, Damien Magnifico (Brewers), Chase Stevens (Diamondbacks), Diego Goris (Royals), and Kyle Robinson (White Sox). Magnifico, I missed because the game was the fourth of a series that I had already attended three games consecutively of. Stevens, I actually saw twice, but both times were after I had packed the camera away for the night and was preparing to leave. Robinson was promoted by the time Great Falls rolled through Orem, and Goris hadn't been promoted by the time Idaho Falls had finished in Orem.

I based my evaluations off a combination of things: personal observations, industry analysis (through the great work of Baseball America, John Sickels, the Baseball Prospectus and Jonathan Mayo, I encourage you all to check out all the stuff they do, it is awesome), coaches feedback, age, and statistics. Pioneer League statistics are not really a great evaluator but they do prove some things and as such I feel they are relavent.

There will be controversy, and that is the point! The following list is my opinion and I hope you enjoy my analysis. With that, here is the 6000 word, Top 20 Prospect List for the Pioneer League 2012.

The Pioneer League Top 20 Prospects

20: Eric Smith, Catcher, Dodgers

Smith spent the entire season with the Ogden Raptors after being drafted in the 18^th round out of Stanford. At Stanford he was an honorable all-Pac 12 mention this season, and had started only 13 games in his first two seasons. He blossomed in his first full season as a starter both professionally and collegiately. While I saw Smith play four times, I only caught him behind the plate twice. He was a shortstop in High School and started his career at Stanford as an infrequent backup infielder. He transitioned behind the plate this year and caught Mark Appel and friends as Cardinal’s everyday catcher. He is still raw at the position, and that is seen in his inconsistent pop-times, which I clocked between 1.88 and 2.23. Realistically I put his arm in the “40” range, meaning it is below average, but as he grows into the position I see him becoming more valuable. He is a solid hitter who posted a career average above .300 at Stanford (albeit in a small sample size outside of this past year), and followed it up with a very solid season in the Pioneer League. As a left-handed bat, Smith’s future is strong, especially given that he hits lefties pretty well. Most impressively in my mind is the fact that this was truly his first season of frequent action since high school.

19: Jose Pena, Outfielder, Brewers

In my mind Pena is probably my most controversial pick, he is incredibly raw and that shows especially in the outfield where he looks miserably lost. Watching him track routine fly balls was similar to watching a little leaguer track the same balls. However, Pena blossomed in his first season stateside. Still only 19 he has a chance to develop to continue to develop. In his first two seasons in the DSL, Pena looked miserable. But he displayed decent patience relative to the league and managed to keep his K’s in check. He didn’t hit at all in those first two years though, hitting .194 over two seasons. In his first season in America things seem to have matured a little. Facing better talent, Pena has hit .300 for the season and displays the potential to have some good power numbers as he grows. Physically, Pena looks close to developed which is a promising sign. He is ranked here more on the basis of growth potential and power potential and less that of current skills.

18: Ryan Warner, Right-Handed Starter, Rockies

This is the time of the show where I remind you that while I may reference statistics to justify certain things, they are not always a good indicator of future talent. Ryan Warner is the perfect example. The 18-year old Warner was the Rockies 3^rd rounder this season and posted a 7.00 ERA for the Pioneer League Rockies. He also allowed 63 hits in 45 innings. But the positives for Warner far outshine the negatives; he is 6-7 but only 195 pounds. His build reminds you of another former Colorado-native, Brandon McCarthy, though I’d wish that injury history on no one.  Warner, like McCarthy, is not a power-arm, sitting in the high 80s with his fastball. He also flashed a promising curveball that has the potential to grade out as an above-average major league offering. For an 18-year old, Warner displays a really consistent motion and is able to repeat his delivery for the most part, which is also promising. While the results weren’t there in his first full-season, I could see Warner being one of the most promising players in the system if he can develop a third offering. Currently he works almost entirely off the Fastball and Curveball, and that will not cut it at the higher-levels. I suspect he’ll open 2013 in extended ball before finishing his season with Tri-City in the Short-Season Northwest League.

17: Beau Amaral, Outfielder, Reds

Amaral and his teammate at UCLA, Jeff Gelalich were both drafted by the Reds this season (1^st Round and 7^th Round), they are separated by a mere month age-wise and both reported to Billings. Gelalich, the first rounder, struggled mightily. Amaral meanwhile blossomed and began to develop as an all-around player. Amaral has good speed and an above-average IQ on the base paths, which allows his speed to play up. One of his biggest weaknesses at UCLA was his strike-zone discipline as a lead-off hitter, but in his first year pro he struck out only 27 times total, in 230 at-bats. To counter that point though, he only walked 16 times. So the patience is not exactly there. The lefty made good use of his speed this season and has a great background, his father, Rich, was a 10-year major leaguer. Amaral did spend two seasons in the Cape Cod League and while he didn’t hit well, the experience served him well. The big knocks on Amaral are that he has no power, and despite above average range has a below-average arm. He hit well in his first professional season and during his three years at UCLA was arguably the best hitter for average. That said, he does drop his hands and winds up upper-cutting at the ball. It might work in the lower-levels, but being that he has no power, the uppercut approach will likely have to change to succeed at higher levels and produce more line drive results. He isn’t a big guy (5-11, 170) but he could gain a little muscle mass without sacrificing speed. I could see him staying in center-field, but time will tell if he stays in center, or becomes a left-fielder.

16: Jonathan Walsh, Outfielder, Angels

Jonathan Walsh was highly thought of as an offensive-minded catcher when he enrolled at Texas. During his three years he turned into a reliable left-fielder for the Longhorns.  Then came his pro-career, starting in right-field (something he didn’t do in college) Walsh made three errors in his first professional game. He added another the next night. By the end of his first week as a pro, he had made five errors in his first five games. He finished the year with ten errors, but nine of those came in right field. For the last month of the season the team moved him back to his natural left field and he showed talent there and his arm plays up in left field. Walsh has a mature approach at the plate and walked as frequently as he struck out. Furthermore, he displays a great ability of adapting the situation. He has average power potential, but I could see him being an average to above-average hitter as he progresses. Walsh is very athletic, and runs pretty well for a big guy. Overall the athleticism might be the biggest help for the switch-hitter. Angels fans may see this ranking as controversial, especially if they read other prospect lists that still consider Chevy Clarke a prospect. The fact about Clarke is that he is still missing hittable pitches and just spent his third season in rookie ball. Fans dream of Clarke’s potential to be a 20/20 player. Get that out of your mind, I spent the summer watching him and I didn’t come away impressed. If you are a Clarke fanatic, shoot for a more realistic target, High-A. That’s not to say he won’t turn it around, but so far the reviews are positive. Walsh meanwhile will never be a 20/20 guy. But I think he does have the ability to put together solid seasons and projects as a future 4^th outfielder. Which in this case, is good enough for top 20 consideration.

15: Pedro Ruiz, 2B/SS, Diamondbacks

I went back and forth with this slot a lot. Ruiz has the potential to be a solid middle infield option, and in the end I remember the adage, he can play in the dirt. He is a switch-hitter, and is undersized. He also made 30 errors in short-season ball. No one else on his entire team made more than 8. Oh and he strikes out a little above average. So what do I like about this guy? Simple, he gets on. He is a switch-hitter, but hits both lefties and righties effectively. He has a simple approach and displays well above average patience. He is the kind of player who could consistently put up a high on-base percentage. He has slightly above-average speed, but he looks like he has the ability to get more out of it. He just turned 21 at the end of the season, which is a slight hindrance in some views, but he’ll spend the entire 2013 season as a 21 year old, I could see him starting in South Bend. That said, the fielding is an issue still, and that may result in an extending spring stay.

14: Elier Hernandez, OF, Royals

If you are a big Dominican prospect fan, you’ll know this name. Elier Hernandez was widely considered the top J2 signing in the class last year. Most scouts loved his raw tools. He is pretty fast, has a good arm, displays great raw power and has a huge body. At least that is what the reports said. When you look at him, you don’t see a 17-year old. He looks fully developed. He is 6-3, 200, and looks like he is made of granite. One thing that stood out to me is that his hands are monstrous. That may mean he’ll grow even more. Now then, why is he rated so poorly? Simple, he didn’t display the tools you’d expect to see. Even in the rawest of forms. His arm, I found, was average by league standard, though it was accurate, which is a plus. He also doesn’t appear to have the greatest IQ for the game. One situation stood out to me in particular. He was in RF on a routine flyball, with runners on 1^st and 2^nd and no outs. He caught the ball just fine, but the runners were tagging and rather than even making a play at them merely tossed the ball into the cut-off men. He also was pulled from a game I attended after slamming his helmet against the dugout wall after striking out with the bases loaded. I did see the good and the bad of his hitting abilities though. The good, he has top-notch bat speed. The bad, he has no recognition. He has speed, but really never used it this season, which I found to be a surprise. He also struggled at the level, hitting .204 and striking out 66 times in 250 ABs. The most disappointing part of the season was his absolute lack of power. Hernandez is a big guy, with huge bat speed, yet he failed to even go yard once this season, playing in the hitter-friendly Pioneer League. He will be only 18 next year, so certainly don’t write him off, but this season was a disappointing one. He makes the list based more on the fact that he has four full seasons left to develop before he reaches the same age as most college juniors currently. While players like Jonathan Walsh, Jeremy Rathjen and Evan Marzilli show much more polish they all have much less “potential” than Hernandez.

13: Ross Stripling, Right-Handed Starter, Dodgers

The righty, Stripling, was babied a bit by the Dodgers this season. He appeared in 14 games, but was limited to 36.1 Innings. Then again he did spend the entire season as part of Texas A&M’s dominant 1-2 punch with Michael Wacha. Stripling has good size (6-3, 190) and used it in college to pitch a ton including 125 innings this season for A&M. Stripling led or was tied for the NCAA lead in wins his last two seasons, and is a proven winner. That carried over into the Pioneer League where he tended to toy with hitters. He isn’t overpowering, and currently is more of a two-pitch pitcher (Fastball, Curveball) but he mixes the two well and isn’t afraid to throw his curve in any count. The fastball comes in between 88-91, he uses it effectively though and sets up his big 12-6 curveball that has great tight break. He K’d more than 1 an inning and walked only 6 guys total. If you followed him at all in college you’d know that he is in general a control pitcher, walking only 19 this season. His body actually looks like he could add some size, which could bump the fastball, but who knows. He has had no injury problems as a pitcher, but he turned his focus to baseball in high school after injuries halted his promising football career. His third pitch is a change-up, which he currently has below-average feel for. He is aggressive and gets right after hitters, which is a great skill. Some like him more as a reliever because the fastball may bump into the low-mid 90s and the curve is a big-time pitch, but I see him continuing to develop as a starter, and moving pretty quickly. Given his advanced age (he’ll be 23 next season), I would like to see the Dodgers challenge him with an assignment to AA Chattanooga, and I think he can handle it. His ceiling isn’t that high, but his floor isn’t that low either.

12: Jon Moscot, Right-Handed Starter, Reds

Moscot led the Cape Cod League in strikeouts last season, and carried that through his Junior Year at Pepperdine University. Young for his class, Moscot turned 21 in August, which means he’ll spend most of next year as a 21 year old (a plus). I only saw him for two innings, in his second Pioneer League start, but I was intrigued nonetheless. His fastball isn’t that special, it sits 88-91 MPH, but it does have some good sink and he generates a lot of groundballs with it. He is a big guy, 6-4, 205, but comes off as lanky instead of built. His slider is hit or miss and the start I saw it was primarily miss. As in miss the zone. He spent his two innings bouncing the slider and went with the fastball most of the way. Scouts say he throws a change and splitter but I didn’t see either pitch during his start. His delivery is max effort, and actually looks violent. His future will depend on how he develops in the future. If he stays healthy, he has the ability to have the four-pitch mix and could be a big-time ground ball pitcher. Major League teams have a role for guys like that and I could see him in the backend of a rotation in a couple seasons.

11: Jake Lamb, 3B, Diamondbacks

Lamb is a well-built third basemen with a thick lower half. He has above-average skills for a third basemen and displays a strong arm to go along with average range. He has the potential to stick at 3B, though with his arm strength and build, I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if the Diamondbacks tried him behind the plate at some point. He is a left-handed hitter and will need to get better versus lefties in order to be anything more than a platoon option. He struck out 51 times this year in 280 at-bats (well below league average (average was 26.7%), a positive) but 21 of those came in 66 at-bats vs lefties (a negative). He doesn’t run particularly well, but he does have above-average power and took advantage of his ability to find the gaps this season. He finished the year in the top-five in slugging and showed a very advanced approach to hitting. He is a good hitter and I believe showed enough progress this season to justify his placing in the ranking. He turns 22 in the off-season and should be tested next year at South Bend or potentially in the California League with Visalia.

10: Seth Mejias-Brean, 3B, Reds

The star of the Wildcats run to the top of Omaha, Mejias-Brean got attention late in the season and wound up as a eighth rounder to the Reds. Mejias-Brean doesn’t look like a typical baseball player, but he does produce. Everything he does looks a little off, yet when you go back and look at it, everything works out fine. He was the best 3B at the level, with good range and great defensive skills. His arm is only average, but it is accurate and that is all that matters. He has well above average Baseball IQ and comes from a winning program. As a hitter he sprays the entire field well, and uses a line-drive stroke to strike the ball well. He displayed surprising power for the season, blasting 8 out of the park in only 46 games. Some of that has to do with the environment and some of it has to do with the fact that he does the little things right. He takes advantage of situations and helps his team win. As he develops a little more with the wood bat I suspect the homeruns will stay between 10-15 a season but the average will be solid and he’ll produce a lot of line drive base hits. He is a gamer, and I enjoyed watching him play.

9: Eddie Butler, Right-Handed Starter, Rockies

Talk about Doctor Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. I saw Butler start three games. In the first two he went 7 innings total, walking 5, striking out 6 and allowing 11 hits and 8 earned runs. Why is this relevant? Well for the rest of the entire season Butler went 60 innings allowing 48 hits 8 walks, striking out 49 and allowing 8 earned runs. Yep. He also only walked more than two batters twice in 13 appearances; I was there for both. Physically he is developing, he is listed at 6-3, 180, but he looks closer to 170. He is skinny and could stand to add a little weight. He throws a ton of variations on his pitches and sits anywhere between 88-96 with his fastball. He throws the four-seam in the upper velocities and the pitch is generally straight, the two-seam comes in the lower 90s and has good darting movement towards the end. He also throws a cutter in the upper 80s but it is very hit or miss. He cranks it up in bigger situations and tones it down in others to extend the life of his outing. He also throws a slider and curve. The slider tends to be in the low to mid 80s, but the velocities vary and the results do as well. When on the slider had great tilt and moved quickly from right to left. When the velocity picked up though it tended to sit and not move much at all. He also displayed a curveball in the bullpen and in one of the starts I witnessed. The curve sat in the mid-70s and has sharp break, but it tended to not reach the strike zone. Call it a work in progress. Scouts say he has a change-up but I didn’t see it at any point during his three outings. Though generally in the strike zone, I did notice that in his first start he was beginning his wind-up without picking up the catchers target. He was plastered in this start and was wildly erratic, allowing a ton of hard hit balls up the middle. Butler when he is cruising seems to be in control of every situation. But when things start going wrong they go downhill quickly. He is very much a work in progress. He displays essentially five pitches, and has the potential to be a very solid pitcher. He still needs to mature and develop physically though. As such, he is definitely a prospect to watch.

8: Michael Perez, Catcher, Diamondbacks

When you first see Perez, you don’t think catcher. He is built much more like a middle infielder. But behind the plate he holds his own. Perez has a slightly above-average arm behind the plate with the pop times coming in between 1.95-1.98. He is a left-handed hitter with a short swing and good bat speed. He does have some good pop for a smaller guy (5-11, 180), and he profiles as a guy who could be an average hitter with average power as he progresses. He still swings and misses too much to be ready for a big jump, and it seems that he wore down at the end of the season. There are concerns about his size, and his ability to control the game behind the plate, but he is a good hitter, and he just turned 20 in August. I liked what I saw, and while he is raw I am comfortable with this spot.

7: Socrates Brito, Outfielder, Diamondbacks

Besides having an awesome name, Brito is a big left-handed outfielder with good skills in the outfield and decent, though unrefined, approach to hitting. He comes in at number seven more on the fact that he is younger than the guys in spots 8-12 but I could easily have flipped any of them. He spent the entire season as a 19-year old, and turned 20 in September. He is built like a bull and looks like he could hold his own in a bar fight (though I don’t recommend testing that). Even better, I feel like he could easily add a lot more weight. He did fail a steroid test in 2010 (major red flag), but hasn’t had any issues since. He has good speed but tends to get a little lost on the basepaths, but that is a skill that can be fixed. The Diamondbacks have let him play all three outfield positions but with his arm (which is strong but inaccurate) and his build, I see him as a definite corner outfielder. Coaches praise his baseball IQ and that should help him develop. As a hitter he shows a ton of batting practice power, but the game power isn’t there yet. As he continues to grow and develop I think the power will come. You don’t see many guys with his build who aren’t capable of mashing a couple monster shots.

6: Sam Selman, Left-Handed Pitcher, Royals

Coming into the season, Sam Selman was touted as a top-pitching prospect. His stock fell a little after a rough season at Vanderbilt, but after his first pro season it certainly looks like Selman is back on track. His teammates call him Crazy Legs and it is easy to see why. I cannot even begin to describe his delivery other than to say it looks violent. He hooks his arm behind his body on his follow through and it looks like nothing I’ve seen before. That said, it works for him and as such it works for me. I had read reports that he can touch the upper 90s but he sat 91-93 the entire outing. He features a good overhand curve that drops in around 78-81. He is a tall lefty who looks incredibly undersized. Vanderbilt said he was 160 his freshman year but got up to 190 by his senior year… I don’t buy it, especially because Idaho Falls and the Royals list him as 165. Needless to say, he looks like he could fill out which may help that velocity reach its full potential.  He also throws a change-up that consistently came in at 82 throughout his outing. He dominated the Pioneer League this season on his way to winning pitcher of the year, striking out 13.28 per nine and allowing 45 hits in 60.1 innings. He did walk 3.28 per nine, which was to be expected given his bizarre wind-up and arm wrap. His manager loves to talk about how confident he is, and he pitches like it. I could see Selman developing more and more with a major league weight program and professional coaching and turning into a top-of-the line starter. I could also see him struggling to make the adjustments needed and falling off the map. That said, his first glance at the professional level was a massive success and Selman will likely open 2012 in the High-A rotation.

5: Jesse Winker, Outfielder, Reds

Winker was older for his class, turning 19 during his rookie season. And while that tends to not be a good sign for high schoolers in the first round, Winker went out and had a great first season professionally. Joining the outfield with the two UCLA teammates (Gelalich and Amaral), Winker made a very solid impression on the organization and on me. His competitiveness is off the charts, but that also tends to leading to him coming off as immature. For example, there was a questionable call at second base (Winker was in LF) and Winker was visibly upset with the umpires, shouting from left field. I don’t mind emotion but this wasn’t his only outburst. He frequently displayed vocal displeasure with his failings at the plate (which weren’t that common) and will need to get those under control to avoid pissing off the wrong people. Again, I don’t mind frustration, but swearing and slamming your helmet after a big out isn’t always needed. He was a member of the US U-18 team in 2011 going into his junior year and led the team in the field and on the mound. He is a lefty who will be a corner outfielder as he progresses. He isn’t the most athletic of guys and some people feel he might end up at first base. I personally don’t see that happening and he does have a good arm and I think it has value in the outfield. As a hitter Winker displays a well above-average approach for his age. He hit only three homers as a senior in high school, but put five out in his first year pro. While I don’t see him as a major power threat, he does get under the ball well and that could help him develop his power stroke. For a young lefty he also uses the entire field evenly and that approach should help him as he starts to face tougher pitching. He also hits lefties as well as he hits righties, which is a good sign for the future development of his game. He reminds me a lot of David Murphy in both his size and his approach to hitting. The biggest difference is that Murphy is a solid outfielder and for now Winker is still developing in left. The Reds have no need to rush him, and I think he’ll be challenged in Dayton next season.

4: Adalberto Mondesi, Shortstop, Royals

I think most years the son of Raul would have a good claim to the #1 spot. This year though, he is #4. He spent the first half of the season as a 16 year old (easily the youngest player in the league) and more than held his own. He is currently 6-1, 165 but being that he just turned 17, I suspect we could see him grow in the next few years. Furthermore, unlike many Dominican players there are absolutely no questions about his age (he was born in Los Angeles), which can be seen as a plus. Mondesi has great range, a strong arm (any surprise???), and soft hands. He did make 23 errors this season in 50 games, but again, he was 16 months younger than the second youngest player in the LEAGUE. I expect mistakes! Some analysts will criticize the fact that we had a small sample with him, but again I think his bloodlines and his age outweigh that fact. Put it to you this way, if he were in the American High School System he would be either in the young side of the class of 2013 or the older side of the Class of 2014. Within the first few innings of watching him you can tell he gets it. With runners on second and third and him playing deep at short, I witnessed the best play I saw all year. Mondesi fielding the ball cleaning while ranging slightly to his right, planted and fired home and got the out. He really is a joy to watch in the field. He does have a long way to refine his game as a hitter, but he held his own in the Pioneer League, hitting .290 this season. That said the majority of his hits are singles and despite great speed he doesn’t get many extra base hits. He is an above-average baserunner and I suspect that he’ll get better. He comes from a great background and will spend almost all of next season as a 17-year old in a full-season league where a couple other young developing teammates in Elier Hernandez and Bubba Starling should surround him.

3: Corey Seager, Shortstop, Dodgers

Seager is the little brother of Mariners infielder Kyle Seager. Little in age only though, Corey is 6-3 and close to 200, just one look at him and you see that he is built to play baseball. He is currently a shortstop for the Dodgers but scouts tend to think he’ll end up at third base. I would tend to agree. He has a strong arm and good hands, but the range isn’t there, and I struggle to see him sticking at short. He has a short and simple stroke and used it to take advantage of the Pioneer League this season. He is also a mature hitter and doesn’t tend to chase pitches that are outside of the zone. He knows what he has to do to make the plays and he makes the players around him better. He is patient and swings at his pitch which tends to lead him to working counts, which is a great trait that really cannot be taught to the average 18-year old. As he moves up the ladder, I think he’ll be challenged but I think he has the skills and ability to get through the challenges. He is still probably three years off but I do certainly think he will join his brother in the Majors around 2015-2016.

2: Robert Stephenson, Right-Handed Pitcher, Reds

The Reds first rounder last year made his debut this season in Billings. I was fortunate enough to catch his final start of his Pioneer League career and boy is he special. I also caught one of his Midwest League starts and again he confirmed that while still young, Stephenson does have the potential to be a top of the line starter in the future. Baseball America rated Stephenson the Reds #7 prospect before he even threw a pitch. He should be #2 this year and a likely top 50 MLB prospect as well. Standing only 6-2, 180, the 19-year old unleashes heat. During the starts I saw Stephenson touched 100, but for the most part sat 94-97. He maintains his velocity through his starts thanks to his repeatable over the top delivery. He features a huge curveball that comes in at 74-77 and misses bats though it also tends to miss the strikezone. He has a change-up that is 85-87 but it is a below-average pitch at the moment. In the Pioneer League start I witnessed he allowed a homerun and also knocked a guy out with a fastball to the head, but he bounced back nicely after each incident and was more than effective. Currently he is more of a thrower than a pitcher, but he was still easily the best pitcher in the league. He has a solid pick-off move, and shows flashes of three plus pitches. Currently he has a Major League fastball, and a curve that shows glimpses of glory, if the change develops I think those three are all he’ll need to succeed. He does tend to miss the zone a lot but gets away with it due to the sheer nastiness of his stuff and the level of his competition. As he develops and gets a better feel for pitching I see him as having some big-time stuff. That said, best-case scenario is that he develops into an ace. Worst-case scenario (barring injury) is that he turns into an effective reliever at the upper level. He does feature the inverted W in his delivery, which is a cause for concern to some people.

1: David Dahl, Outfielder, Rockies

Dahl was considered the fourth-best high-school bat in the draft by most analysts, I personally pegged him at number three, and after seeing him play I’m not sure I wouldn’t peg him as the best bat (though I’d still take Correa over him). I had the sheer pleasure of watching Dahl play in five games and all I can say is wow. He is a well-above average centerfield and gets great reads. He also has good speed and great instincts, which allow him to track down balls all over the place. In the five games I saw he went 5-19 as a hitter (which was one of his lesser showings considering he hit over .370 for the season), but I was left in awe by many of his at-bats. He has a great stroke that tends to lead him to being a doubles hitter. He’ll benefit from altitude as well as he does get some nice loft behind many of his balls. I witnessed his first career professional homerun (an opposite field laser just over the wall) and it confirmed the fact that he has great opposite field power. In fact of his five base hits I saw 3 were to Center or Left Field (including the homerun and a line drive down the left field line that he turned into a triple).  He doesn’t hit lefties nearly as well as righties, but for now that isn’t a worry. I had read reports that he is a low-energy guy but I never saw that. I took his demeanor as much more of a quiet confidence. His teammates hold him in high regard and he plays with a visible competitiveness that comes off as confident to me. He looks like he has what it takes to be a great player and I am firmly behind him as the top prospect on the circuit. He cruised to the batting title and the league MVP this year and quite frankly wasn’t really challenged much. I’d like to see him challenged next season because I think he would truly benefit from the challenge. Watching Dahl live, and talking to people around the league, he was easily the best hitter in the league and was always a threat to dominant. Long-term I suspect he will stick in Center, but I could see him as a part-time center fielder part-time corner guy. He may never win a gold-glove but he is a good defensive outfielder and I am sold on his skill-set.

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I am always available for comments and critiques and inspiration. 

Drop me a line at kevin.p.walsh@me.com or via twitter @AltitudeSports

The Value of Baserunning

First and foremost, I think this is my most convoluted and strangely written piece. While it makes sense to me, I think I struggle to convey the point to the mass audience, so bare with me.

There have been plenty of studies on baserunning, and plenty of controversies surrounding it. I myself fall strongly into the category of aggressive baserunning wins ballgames. That said, I decided to take a look at all of the potentially baserunning situations and determining where the value was.

As such I looked at both stolen bases and advancing on a hit.

To conduct this study I took advantage of Baseball Prospectus' amazing run expectancy charts, and utilized the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

In an effort to not bore you with a ton of numbers and to get to the point I managed to calculate the changes in run expectancy for every potential situation of a stolen base or a caught stealing (with the exception of stealing home, because well if you steal home, in my mind the run expectancy is 1...)

A double steal of second and third with one out has the highest positive change in run expectancy. In that situation, with runners on first and second and one out the run expectancy for the inning is .8936, however after the double steal that jumps to 1.29. If the lead runner is caught, you still leave a runner in scoring position, but the run expectancy of a runner on second with 2 outs is only .3137.

Now you are saying well, you just lowered the run expectancy if you were caught by more than you gained if you stole successfully. That is correct, however consider this, any time you are caught stealing the damage is worse than if you successfully steal. For example with no outs, stealing second adds .2131 to the total run expectancy for the inning but getting caught costs you .5918 runs.

That said, the cost of outs in general is relatively high. Take a look at the following:

Cost of Outs with a runner on first and NO Outs.

Batter Out: .3474

Ground Into Double Play: .7533

Caught Stealing: .5918

So yes, if you are stealing there is a risk, so if you NEVER steal a base you will not risk losing runs. And that is the argument that many make regarding not stealing. That said, I went through and calculated the percentage of successful stolen bases you'd need to justify stealing. That number is 73.5%. So if you attempt 19 steals, you better be safe 15 times or you are hurting your team.

Of the 30 teams in 2011, 13 were successful more than 73.5% of the time. 8 of those teams were in the top 13 of stolen bases on the season. But stolen base prowess didn't correlate to winning. San Diego was easily the most successful team, converting 79.4% of their attempts, whereas St. Louis was the least successful converting 59.4% of their attempts. In fact, San Diego was caught only 5 more times than St. Louis, and stole 113 more bases. If you just pretend that they only ever stole second with no outs, San Diego added 24.08 more runs than St. Louis did via the stolen base. That said, we all know how 2011 ended, St. Louis won the World Series, and San Diego finished in dead last in the NL West with 71 wins.

Now then, time to defend why I feel the stolen base is still undervalued... If you need to be successful 73.5% of the time it means that 26.5% percent of the time you are caught... 48 catchers in 2011 caught fewer than 26.5% of attempted basestealers. Sure of those catchers barely played, but 13 of them started more than 60 games on the season. Some of the "names" Jason Varitek, A.J. Pierzynski, Josh Thole, J.P. Arencibia, John Buck, Carlos Ruiz. If you are facing any of these catchers and have decent speed chances are you can benefit from running.

Now I don't believe in reckless theft. For example, Juan Pierre last year was caught 17 times, and successful only 27 times. That is bad baserunning. Jacoby Ellsbury, 39 of 54, is just below-average. Coco Crisp stole 49 bases last year, in only 59 attempts, 84.5% success rate but his team was below the success threshold. That is because Jemile Weeks and Cliff Pennington were caught 20 times and were safe only 36 times. Both finishing in the top 20 for caught stealing (technically Crisp did as well, but 49 successful steals is a plus).

On the other hand, Texas featured Elvis Andrus, 37 of 49. Ian Kinsler 30 of 34, and Craig Gentry 18 of 18. The three of them combined to account for 85 stolen bases and 16 caught stealing. An exception 84.2% success rate. The team as a whole was 143 for 188, and accounted for 59.4% of the teams total stolen bases, but only 35.6% of the teams caught stealings. In other words, those three guys made up the most powerful trio of runners last season.

The reality is, the stolen base is an extremely valuable weapon that needs to be used in appropriate situations. Ian Kinsler for example is not a fast runner, in fact many scouts consider him a 45-50 in the speed category (ML Average), but in 2011 he was successful on 30 steal attempts (88.2% of the time), he picked his battles and won and in the four games he was caught, the Rangers won all four times. 2011 wasn't an anomaly though, for his Major League career he has been successful 83.8% of the time.

Advancing on the Hit:

A completely different theory to baserunning is advancing on a hit. For example going first to third on a single or scoring on a double from first. According to the Bill James Baseball Handbook 2012, Texas was the best team in 2011 in gaining bases... the worst, St. Louis. So again, baseball baffles.

The key in moving bases is to advance successfully without being thrown out. In the 2011 season Texas took 179 bases, and were thrown out only 15 times. A 90.2% success rate. Conversely, Arizona, took 159 bases and were thrown out 45 times. A 77.9% rate. For comparisons sake, the MLB average in 2011 was 85.2%. Perhaps most interestingly here is the fact that Texas took the second most bases, but were caught the fewest amount of times.

For the sake of this article, and because I am already getting far too wordy, I decided to only look at a runner on first advancing to third on a single. To do this I again consulted the run expectancy chart and found the run expectancy for a runner on first with no outs, one out, and two outs. From there I placed runners on certain bases based on results. What I found is that on a single, a successful advance from first to third (as opposed to just going station to station for one base) added .2487 to the run expectancy when there were no outs. With one out it adds .2498 to the run expectancy, however with two outs it merely adds .0408. In other words, with two outs, it is relatively pointless to risk advancing to third on a single.

Speaking of risk, what is the cost associated with attempting to take third on a single.

Well if you are the first out (In other words, runner on first one out now instead of first and second and no outs) and you cost your team .9298 runs. If you are the second out .6762. And if you make the third out trying to advance, .4344, but the inning is over. Again, risk-reward. A little less precise on my calculations here, but if you are successful in trying to advance 11 of the 14 times you attempt to do so with no outs (78.89%) you are adding to your overall run expectancy and helping your team. In other words, 29 of the 30 MLB teams were actually helping themselves when attempting to advance. Only Arizona fell below the 78.89% success rate cut-line.

With one out you only need to be successful 73.01% of the time in order to increase your run expectancy over the span of a season. However with two outs, you better be successful 91.41% of the time to justify attempting to take that extra base with two outs.

So the old adage, never try to take an extra base with two outs, is certainly true.

What I've managed to ascertain through this glimpse at baserunning is that in general the risk-reward payout is higher with no outs (duh) but the lowest risk and most reward comes with one out in all situations. The biggest reason I can think of for this is advancing or stealing typically takes you out of a double play situation. As such by taking the extra base if the next batter hits a routine groundball to short instead of being an easy force out the base-runner now has options. With no outs, if a double play occurs the inning continues, but with one out the inning is over.


All in all baserunning is an aspect of the game that in the past was highly valued, then tapered off in the 90s and 2000s and is slowly returning to prominence. I believe that a player with plus baserunning skills (not necessarily speed) is one of the most valuable tools a player can have. Especially when it is paired with a high frequency of reaching base.

Thanks for the patience, I hope some of this made sense. Feel free to ask any questions.

A Quick Look: Bridgeport Bluefish

Continuing my viewers guide for tonight's ESPN Classic/ESPN 3 broadcast. Here is the Bridgeport Bluefish lineup for tonight.

LF: Joey Gathright, one of my all-time favorite players (I think it had something to do with the video of him jumping a car), Gathright opened this season in AAA before returning to Bridgeport, he finished last year as a pinch-runner for the Boston Red Sox. Only 12 stolen bases this year which kind of shocks me.

2B: Luis Figueroa, 38 year old infielder who has three seasons of MLB experience. The Puerto Rican began the season with the Skeeters before he was sent to the Park City (Bridgeport). Solid second-basemen.

RF: Prentice Redman, 33 year old outfielder with one season of MLB experience, Prentice Redman has good power and provides a solid skill player in the heart of the lineup. In 1402 career minor league games Redman is a .279 hitter. Leads the active roster with 12 homeruns.

1B: Willis Otanez, 39 year old cleanup hitter who hasn't been in the majors since 1999 but spent parts of 1998 and 1999 in the majors. Otanez is in his seventh season with the Bluefish (10 years of Atlantic League experience), but started the year in Mexico where he blasted 16 home-runs and hit .275.

3B: Luis Lopez, 38 year old infielder who is in his fifth season in the Park City. Lopez last appeared in the Majors in 2004, and all his MLB experience was with the two canadian franchises. According to the Bluefish, Lopez ranks in the top five of many of the major hitting categories for the history club.

CF: James Simmons, 26 year old outfielder who spent parts of last year in AAA with the Giants. He started this season in the Frontier League (which is arguably the most developmental of the Independent Leagues), Simmons provides good pop and good speed and is the first player in the line-up without MLB experience. Has 11 homers this season in 69 games, he is also 10 for 10 stealing this year.

CA: Luis Rodriguez, 38 year old catcher is a player/coach for the Bluefish and has had eight stints at the AAA level. His nickname is "The Machete" and reports say he has the strongest arm among the Atlantic League's Catchers. An average hitter, and an above-average catcher.

DH: Kennard Jones, 30 year old is the son-in-law of Tony Gwynn. This is his fifth season in the Atlantic League and coming into this season he has a career average in the league of .298. He has plus speed and makes for a deadly baserunning pair with leadoff hitter Joey Gathright and ninth hitter Ed Rogers. Leads the team with 24 SB.

SS: Ed Rogers, 33 for four more days, Rogers has MLB experience over three seasons with the Baltimore Orioles. Rogers is a below average middle-infielder but does have plus-plus speed and spent the past two seasons with the AAA affiliate of the Diamondbacks. Rogers is 19 for 20 this season stealing bases.

SP: Brad Thompson, 30 year old starter Thompson last appeared in the majors in 2010, and has six years of MLB experience. Thompson went to camp this year with the Twins and made four appearances in AA before joining the Fish. Out of the bullpen in 2006, Thompson won a World Series ring with the Cardinals.

A Quick Look: Sugar Land Skeeters

This is going to set the record for shortest post. But I figured since I love independent baseball and I love the Atlantic League I thought it might be appropriate to talk briefly about the Sugar Land Skeeters and the lineup that will be playing with Roger Clemens tonight.

So without further adieu, the lineup:

3B: Ofilio Castro, a 29 year old Nicaraguan national who reached AA last season with the Nationals organization. He is the teams leading hitting, hitting .301 through 97 games. He is a solid defender and provides reliable support for Clemens on the hot-corner. He walks as frequently as he strikes-out and is the perfect leadoff hitter to set the table. His one downside is the lack of speed but he is a solid hitter nonetheless.

2B: Dominic Ramos, 29 year old who has spent the past years in other independent leagues. He was a 17th rounder of the Red Sox in 2005, but spent the past season with the Bill Buckner managed Brockton Rox of the Can-Am League. Ramos is second on the team with 11 homeruns and is also a good defender at second.

CF: Bubba Bell, the third 29 year old in a row in the lineup has a career minor league line that is impressive, .287 Avg, 374 runs, 664 hits, 130 doubles, 61 home runs and 341 RBIs in 642 affiliated games from 2005 through 2011 (when he reached AAA with the Mets).

DH: Jason Lane, the designated hitter needs know introduction, Lane was an extremely solid Major League outfield in the mid-2000s and clubbed a homerun in the 2005 World Series for the Astros. Recently Lane has converted to pitching and acts as the DH for Skeeters in other days. But has made 12 starts for the Skeeters and may piggy-back Clemens tonight.

RF: Dionys Cesar, 35 year old switch hitting utility infielder/outfielder. Was in the Atlantic League in 2007 before bouncing overseas to Japan (Chunchi Dragons) and returning to play in the Mexican League. Just recently joined the Skeeters and provides critical versatility.

LF: Steve Moss, 28 year old who was a back-to-back all-star with the Bluefish the past two seasons. He clocked 41 homers over that span. He was a 29th rounder out of high school in 2002. He is having a major down season by all standards, but still is a major threat to pop one out.

1B: Aaron Bates, 28 year old who is probably the second-most recognizable name in the batting order. Bates had 11 Plate Appearances with the Red Sox in 2009 and spent the first-half of 2012 with the Cardinals and Twins AAA affiliates.

SS: Iggy Suarez, 31 year old infielder who was a Red Sox draftee in the early 2000s but has spent the last few years bouncing around the Atlantic League. Suarez is a relatively weak hitter, though he shows flashes of power. In the infield Suarez is good, but not great.

CA: Octavio Martinez, 33 year old catcher draws the start and will catch Clemens. Martinez was the starting catcher last season for the Atlantic League Champion York Revolution. In 2000 Martinez was an All-Star in Rookie Ball, but since then has bounced around. He is an overall solid catcher, but provides little with the bat. He is hitting over .250, but has only 8 extra base hits this season.

I expect Clemens will go 2-3 innings tonight, but I think he'll hold his own. The Bridgeport Bluefish have a ton of Major League Experience (17 players on the roster, active and inactive) and will likely set the table with speedster Joey Gathright. Other Bluefish names you may recognize include Shea Hillenbrand (7-year MLB vet) and Luis Lopez (2-year MLB vet).

Let's enjoy this, live on ESPN3 and ESPN Classic.

Pittsburgh's Dream Season Is Too Flawed To Continue

If you are a Pittsburgh Pirates fan, I know what your thinking, this is the season we finally breakthrough, we are going to make the playoffs. I hate to break it to you, come October 1st you won't be one of the Top 5 in the NL. Do I expect McCutchen to regress? No, I think he'll be one of the top 10 OFs for years to come. Do I expect A.J. Burnett to pitch more like A.J. Burnett, nah... I just simply realize the Pirates are playing above their talent level, and without a couple small changes are in for a rude awakening.

Realization 1: The Pirates are 8th best team in the NL.

Coming into today, August 15th, there are 46 Pirates games remaining. As of this writing they sit 4th overall in the National League... But 5th, 6th, and 7th are all within one game of them. 5th. 7th Place is where I see them finishing up, and while it'll be close, I cannot envision this years Pirates club as a playoff team.

As you know, I am a huge stat geek, but I tend to balance my statistical preference with an eye towards reality. In other words, just because stats say so and so is awful, I'm not one to jump right into it. That said, when looking through Baseball Prospectus' wonderful Adjusted Standings tool (check it out here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/) I came to realize the Pirates are really not that good. Good yes, playoff bound, no.

Taking a look at the Adjusted Standings the Pirates are third in the NL Central in all three major adjusted standing categories (accounting for things like equivalent runs and averages throughout a season). In fact using the 3rd Order Win Percentage, which Baseball Prospectus describes as: "A team's projected winning percentage, based on underlying statistics and adjusted for quality of opponents." the Pirates aren't even a .500 team. Basing things off the 1st Order Win Percentage which takes into account the how many times a team should have won based on their run differential the Pirates should be 60-56 (they are actually 64-52). That record would leave them in eighth overall based on 1st Order win percentage. Using 3rd Order Win Percentage, the Pirates would be sitting in eighth as well, and only a game out of ninth. Making things even worse, they are only a game better than the Phillies according to 3rd order. Philadelphia is 11 games under 500.

Realization 2: The everyday lineup for the Pirates has a critical flaw, production.

The Pirates prior to the trading deadline were getting the worst production out of the RF position of any team in baseball. They did a nice job acquiring some pieces to temporarily stop the bleeding, but as with any short-term fix within a long-term plan...temporary won't win the pennant. 

But that is only the tip of the iceberg. The Pirates as a team are hitting .246/.302/.406, only the Cubs and Mariners are worse as a whole... To make things even worse, let's take Andrew McCutchen out of the equation... 

TRUE: .246/.302/.406
W/O CUTCH: .232/.283/.382

.232/.283/.382 (Note for the purpose of this OBP was quick-computed, and therefore may vary from the true total). Those totals would put them in 29th in Average, 30th in OBP, and 23rd in Slugging. Overall it makes them the worst offense.

Things get scary after Neil Walker and Garrett Jones, the other 5 primary players in that line-up, aren't capable of carrying the team anywhere. Starling Marte is one of my favorite prospects, but he isn't Major League ready. 20 Ks in his first 80 ABs, 3 walks. He's got the power, but the rest of the skills aren't quite there. In the future, I think he'll be a good player with a high K% and low OBP. For most teams this kind of player projects as a 7-8 hitter. His speed might help him out, but he is currently leading off for the Pirates, and not reaching base nearly enough...

I'm hoping Travis Snider is the real deal, I've always been high on him and I think he is the perfect Lefty Corner Outfielder for the Pirates, so there is a plus. Furthermore, I think his platoon-mate, Gaby Sanchez will perform much better now that he is out of his hometown, Miami.

Realization 3: A good bullpen is only as good as its weakest link

The Pirates bullpen has been a great story this year, but lets just say there are some scary peripherals hiding when you look deeper. Take for example this nugget, Tony Watson is the only lefty in bullpen, and lefties are hitting .242 against him. 

Jason Grilli has been great this season, but what gives, prior to this year Grilli had one great year, 2008 with the Rockies and then a solid end to 2011 with the Pirates. The key this year has been an unreal, and unsustainable K rate (14.03) compared to his career MLB Average (7.61) and MiLB Average (6.71). As the K-rate fall the contact rate will grow this becomes problematic because of the fact that despite his success he is still allowing 1.06 HR per 9. In his dominant year in Colorado (COORS FIELD PEOPLE) he allowed .15 per 9. He isn't getting many ground balls, and 13.2% of his fly balls are leaving the yard. So if the K-rate drops the ERA and the HRs will grow. One explanation for his success is the fact that he is throwing harder than he ever has before and his slider is slower than before. For his career Grilli sat around 92.5 with the fastball and 84.5 with the slider. This season he is averaging 93.8 with the fastball and 82.6 with the slider. An 11 MPH drop. Furthermore those are the only two pitches he is throwing after previously throwing a Curveball and a Change-up. 

Jared Hughes another bright bullpen arm is a rookie and while he has been successful this season, he risks overexposure and must adapt. This is witnessed currently as he has been rocked in August. Allowing 6 ER (the same amount he allowed in April/May and one more than he allowed in June/July). He's been good, but recently it has been bad, and I suspect that is just the season and the action wearing him down.

So right there we have three critical flaws in the bullpen from three pitchers that have pitched in 47, 47, and 46 games respectively (the top 3 on the team, along with Hanrahan at 47 as well).

It gets uglier as we go deeper into the Pen, Juan Cruz somehow has a below 3 ERA despite having a 1.64 WHIP. To put that WHIP into perspective, the other 5 pitchers with an identical WHIP have the following ERAs: 7.36, 6.44, 8.18, 6.14, 8.44. Yup, in other words Cruz has been really damn lucky.

So what is the solution for the bullpen? Risk-taking. As with the success Jared Hughes had earlier this year and Jason Grilli is having both are new looks to opponents. Hughes is a rookie who hadn't been overexposed at the Major League level, he succeeded early and has faltered late. Grilli has become a totally different pitcher than he was in the past and has had season-long success. In order to help these guys and add a critical left-handed arm to the bullpen the Pirates need to make two moves.

First promote Justin Wilson. Wilson is a starting pitcher, and is considered the closest to the majors of the Pirates young arms (he turns 25 this month so I don't consider him a high-level prospect), but Wilson is left-handed, has been stretched out all season and has dominated Triple-A Lefties. In 39 innings vs lefties this season Wilson has allowed 17 hits, 26 walks and struck out 35. They are hitting .131 against him. In other words, perfect for the one out, focus on just the lefty role. Adding him to the roster is going to happen this year, but in needs to happen this week. He is already on the 40-man so it'll be a straight up transaction.

Secondly, purchase the contract of Tim Wood. Wood is a name familiar to Pirates fans and has plenty of Major League Experience, 57 games. He was recently named the Best Reliever in the International League and has been extremely effective against AAA hitters. Honestly, he is a better solution than Juan Cruz. Yes he has struggled in the Majors before, but the simple fact is the bullpen needs a quick make-over to protect the strong back-end.

Overall Analysis:
The Pirates are one of the best stories of the season. Andrew McCutchen has been so critical to the team that without him this team is worthless. He would be my likely vote for MVP because he truly embodies the Most Valuable Player to his team. Unfortunately the offense outside of him is anemic and needs a boost. That just won't happen this season. There is an outside chance that the platoon of Snider and Sanchez helps them win a couple games and stay in the race through September but this is still the 8th best team in the National League. The rotation has been solid all year and I suspect will continue to give the team a good 6 innings night in and night out, the bullpen however is WAY over-performing and this will be the undoing of the team. There is a chance they can add the bullpen pieces needed to hold onto a couple games, but realistically I think the bullpen's above to regress to the mean and perform like what they are, an average bullpen.


I see them finishing above .500 (YAY!!!) and Clint Hurdle winning Manager of the Year. I also see A.J Burnett getting a shot at comeback player of the year. Sadly though, the Pirates will be missing the playoffs by 4-5 games. I honestly hope I am wrong, but I just don't see it happening.