So the title might be a bit deceiving, but I am asking this question based on the fact that poor Mike Loree still hasn't been picked up by anyone. Before we get there though, let's see how three of the other recently featured players have been fairing since I covered them.
Brian Barden
Mere days after I wrote about him, he asked for his release from the Rangers organization so that he could sign with Hiroshima in the NPB. Since joining Hiroshima in Mid-July, Barden has appeared in 13 games for the big club and hit only .209/.292/.302 1 HR 1 2B and 7 1B... Not exactly pretty, but it is still early in his tenure there, and it does take some players awhile to get acclimated with the Japanese style of play.
Jose Constanza
A month after the article the Braves made a trade to acquire Michael Bourn and also decided that they would add Constanza to both the 40-Man Roster and the MLB Roster. Since joining the Braves, Constanza has been nothing but a big-time force. He and Bourn both have legitimate 80 Speed and make up, in my mind, the fastest OF in the MLB. Oh ya, he has continued to hit since joining the Braves as well. In his first 18 games he is hitting .385/.420/.523 with 2 HR and 5 SB. He has allowed the Braves to shuffle the lineups and allows the team to occasionally rest the slumping Jason Heyward. If Hayward can find his 2010 form, and Constanza can keep reaching base, the Braves will have a pretty prolific outfield for the next couple seasons.
Jimmy Swift
Not much to say here, the Rangers listened (haha), and moved Roof back to Hickory and promoted Swift to Myrtle Beach when Garcia went down with an injury. So far it hasn't gone well...but it's only been three games.
______________________________________________________________
Now the fun part, the Mike Loree conundrum.
Mike Loree turns 27 in a month (Oh and his age is confusing me PointStreak and Newsday both say 1984, MiLB and all other sources say 1986, but alas Villanova says 1984) , so yes that is a downside. He has no Major League experience, he has never pitched above Low-A in the minors, and he got rocked last year in his first season in the Atlantic League. Those are the negatives. But lets look at this from a future value perspective, with a month left in the season and the Angels AAA affiliate Salt Lake Bees pitching staff depleted, why not dip back into the Atlantic League and pick up Loree. Instead, the Bees tonight will send Matt Oye to the mound. Now, Matt Oye isn't bad, but he is 25 and spent the entire season in High-A. He just recently became a starter and his near 5 ERA in High-A isn't exactly inspiring. Now I realize the goal is to develop players, but why call-up Oye from High-A, where he has been average (5.32 ERA as a starter, 6 starts 23.2 IP) when Mike Loree is dominating in the Atlantic League. A league widely considered to have AAA-level hitting.
It is not like the Angels don't know the Atlantic League, in fact in June they signed both Jerome Williams and Matt Cusick. So now let's compare Matt Oye and for that matter another member of the Bees staff, Bear Bay, to one Mike Loree.
Loree this season for Long Island has gone 14-3 with a 1.79 ERA in 17 starts and 5 relief appearances. In 110.2 IP he has struck out 115 batters and walked only 27. For the that matter he has only allowed 92 hits, a 1.08 WHIP.
Matt Oye, pitching in the hitter-friendly California League, 4.87 ERA, 68.1 IP, 68 H, 25 BB, 54 K. Not exactly awe-inspiring. And as a starter, 5.32 ERA, 23.2 IP, 26 H, 7 BB, 19 K. Again not exactly pretty. And that was in High-A.
How about Bear Bay? Prior to getting a minor league deal with the Angels this offseason Bear Bay had spent the past three years in the Northern League (Low to High-A level Independent League) where he had an awful first season, but then two straight excellent seasons. Still his numbers, in a worse league, were never close to what Loree is putting up. Bear Bay in the indy's average 6.88 K/9 2.18 BB/9 and 1.27 WHIP. This season for the Bees, Bay has made 22 starts and 3 relief appearances, posting a 4.70 ERA in 143.2 IP. He has struck out only 86 and walked 32. Opponents are hitting .310 off of him. And he is starting every five days for the Bees.
So Mike Loree, pitching at a level that many consider comparable to AAA, is holding opponents to a .222 average, is averaging 9.35 K/9, and has been overmatching all of his opposition, and yet he is still on Long Island, pitching every fifth day for the Ducks, while Bear Bay and now Mike Oye make starts for the Salt Lake Bees in the AAA Pacific Coast League.
This is just one team out of 30 at the Triple-A level, I guarantee that there are others who could use a starter like Loree. You could get four maybe five starts out of him if you signed him now and get an accurate idea of if you'd want him back for next season. Meanwhile Matt Oye, who is still under control for three more minor league seasons could continue to build his arm strength in High-A with the hopes of him potentially becoming a valuable contributor down the road.
I'm never out to push one player being signed at the expense of another's career but I believe that many of the Atlantic League's players deserve more of a look than that get.
Comments?
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Feast or Famine: Joey Butler
Another quick post to start today.
Joey Butler, playing for the Texas Rangers AAA affiliate Round Rock, has been on a tear this season. His slash line looks awesome, .333/.391/.511, but much like Jai Miller, Butler's numbers are deceiving. In 97 games he has 119 strikeouts. Furthermore in only three games this season (at AAA) Butler hasn't either A) had a hit or B) Struck-out. That is nuts. Prior to last night, during a 17-game strikeout streak Butler was hitting .703 when he actually made contact with the ball. The striking difference between Butler and Miller is that while Miller has been crushing homeruns, Butler only has 10. Still though, for the season, when he actually puts the ball in play Butler is hitting .494. Not quite Miller-like, but still quite impressive.
(Credit: Scott Lucas from the Rangers Minor League Report for the inspiration and the numbers from the last 17 games).
Joey Butler, playing for the Texas Rangers AAA affiliate Round Rock, has been on a tear this season. His slash line looks awesome, .333/.391/.511, but much like Jai Miller, Butler's numbers are deceiving. In 97 games he has 119 strikeouts. Furthermore in only three games this season (at AAA) Butler hasn't either A) had a hit or B) Struck-out. That is nuts. Prior to last night, during a 17-game strikeout streak Butler was hitting .703 when he actually made contact with the ball. The striking difference between Butler and Miller is that while Miller has been crushing homeruns, Butler only has 10. Still though, for the season, when he actually puts the ball in play Butler is hitting .494. Not quite Miller-like, but still quite impressive.
(Credit: Scott Lucas from the Rangers Minor League Report for the inspiration and the numbers from the last 17 games).
Monday, August 8, 2011
Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics
I read a blog post recently that got me thinking...
"Is a leadoff walk worse than a leadoff single? Nope. They're the same. Leadoff singles score 38 percent of the time, same as leadoff walks. The average number of runs are the same too, .902 runs per inning after a leadoff single."
In essence, I understand what the author is saying, but I feel like he is missing the KEY component. That component is the fact that the batter didn't have to swing the bat to reach base. Meanwhile in order to get a single you must first put the ball in play. Which statistics show happens between 29-30% of the time (BABIP).
Maybe I am way off track, but the way I see it, a walk is much more deadly than a leadoff single, because simply, there is nothing the hitter has to do to influence it. Whereas the single must actually be contacted by the hitter.
Thoughts?
"Is a leadoff walk worse than a leadoff single? Nope. They're the same. Leadoff singles score 38 percent of the time, same as leadoff walks. The average number of runs are the same too, .902 runs per inning after a leadoff single."
In essence, I understand what the author is saying, but I feel like he is missing the KEY component. That component is the fact that the batter didn't have to swing the bat to reach base. Meanwhile in order to get a single you must first put the ball in play. Which statistics show happens between 29-30% of the time (BABIP).
Maybe I am way off track, but the way I see it, a walk is much more deadly than a leadoff single, because simply, there is nothing the hitter has to do to influence it. Whereas the single must actually be contacted by the hitter.
Thoughts?
The Undrafted Player Paradigm
Question: Why is a player who is hitting .472/.562/.764 in 23 games still in Complex Rookie ball. Answer: He was undrafted. In this case, 23 year old Jimmy Swift of the Rangers organization. Yes, he was a 5-yr senior sign, yes, he is much older than the league average, but still... He is hitting nearly .500. Now as a four-year player at Creighton, Swift was never the star. In fact in his senior year he hit only .274/.350/.371. Still, i'm going way outside the box with this thought. In my opinion, if the player is undrafted, he is worth the risk to move up and play at a higher, more challenging level.
I feel this way because simply put you have nothing to lose. Swift for example is a middle infielder. And while he may not be a star, he has nothing left to prove in Surprise. Why not challenge him, see if there is any potential in there. Realistically he can be replaced next season if nothing appears positive. That said, if something does click, then perhaps you have a solid investment on your hands.
For example, assigning him to Myrtle Beach where he would back up Santiago Chirino and Leury Garcia (he of 32 errors). The current backups for these two are Andres James (one month older than Swift) and Jonathan Roof (13 months younger than Swift). Roof was promoted last month to back up Garcia, after hitting .265/.299/.365 for Low-A Hickory, not exactly awe-inspiring numbers. Especially once we take into consideration the fact that last season (as a rookie) he hit .256/.333/.288 for the same Hickory club. So now a month into his stay in Myrtle Beach, Roof is doing two things: Not playing frequently, and not playing well when he does play. Both of which damage his growth potential. Considering he was an 8th rounder last year as a Junior out of Michigan State, the Rangers have a lot more invested in him than they do Swift, and as such shouldn't be wasting his chance to grow. With Swift, the team took a flyer on him out of college and he is shining. If you place him in Myrtle Beach, even if he fails, at least you aren't costing yourself a large chunk of change. If he succeeds, you are in fact boosting his stock and making value on an undrafted player. Meanwhile, Jonathan Roof (the 8th rounder) has spent a month in Myrtle Beach, where he has played in 10 games, and had 36 at-bats, racking up a solid...four hits.
As for Andres James, the other backup infielder in Myrtle, he is repeating the high-A level, and isn't doing it well. He has appeared in 61 games, hitting a pathetic .221 and walking only 4 times in 195 at-bats. For someone the same age as Swift (in fact older), James is doing nothing that Swift couldn't do himself. In fact, in his career James has done nothing to inspire confidence in his bat. He has never once had an OBP over .300... at any level. His career high in walks in 11. And that season he hit .199.
So why are James and Roof playing in Myrtle Beach, while Jimmy Swift toils away in 110 degree Arizona heat? Simple, the Rangers, like many organizations hate to see wasted investments. Yet in reality they need to see this as a two-way investment. They've given six seasons to Andres James to prove himself in those six seasons he has put up the following slash line .235/.258/.277. He has a whopping 39 walks to 287 strike outs. And a career fielding % coming in at .930. He'll be a free agent at the end of the season so why not cut your losses now and give Jimmy Swift a month to show he has value. As for Jonathan Roof, he is still young (22) and has spent his entire career (save a week) in full season ball. He has a ton of value left, but currently is being short-changed development time by playing maybe once a series in Myrtle Beach. Send him back to Hickory and let him play and develop, as well as be prepared for next season.
In the end, it is all about perceived value. In my mind, Major League organizations short-change a lot of players with skill based on the fact that they were undrafted, or had be released, or were found in the independent leagues. The fact of the matter is, they need to treat these kind of players like penny stocks. Buy them low, and give them a chance to play/shine, if they succeed you've made a huge profit, if not you lose very little.
Monday, July 18, 2011
Feast or Famine: Jai Miller
While working on the next major piece, "Speed Kills" I came upon one of my favorite Minor Leaguers, Jai Miller. Jai is one of those freak athletes, he had committed to Stanford to play Wide Receiver and Point Guard (not baseball) before signing with the Marlins after being drafted in the fourth round in 2003. Jai has made the Majors twice, and struggled, but he is what I like to call the perfect bipolar statistical star. Especially here in 2011 where he is playing with the Sacramento River Cats.
On the surface his slashline .291/.396/.672 looks quite impressive. The issue is the 105 strikeouts in 247 ABs (42.5%). Contrast though to the fact that when he puts the ball in play he is (72/142) batting .507. YES, a BABIP of .507. And how about this fact, 44 of his 72 hits are for extra bases, a whopping 61.1%. Oh ya, he is also 11 for 11 at steal attempts.
Just a quick post, but I hope you enjoy these freakish numbers.
On the surface his slashline .291/.396/.672 looks quite impressive. The issue is the 105 strikeouts in 247 ABs (42.5%). Contrast though to the fact that when he puts the ball in play he is (72/142) batting .507. YES, a BABIP of .507. And how about this fact, 44 of his 72 hits are for extra bases, a whopping 61.1%. Oh ya, he is also 11 for 11 at steal attempts.
Just a quick post, but I hope you enjoy these freakish numbers.
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Summer Leagues
Well it has been a busy week, so I apologize for the delay. Tonight I'm just throwing out a proposal/idea for a future college summer league.
A little background, I know the area pretty well, and have a couple connections that helped me along the way.
Without further adieu, the Altitude Baseball League (sidenote, yes, the blog is AltitudeSports, but the leagues name comes from the state being "high-altitude")
College summer leagues are a popular diversion in the midwest (Northwoods League), New England (Cape Cod/NECBL), Southeast (CPL) and even Alaska. Yet one region that is really devoid of summer league baseball is Mountain West. Specifically speaking, UTAH is devoid of Summer League baseball.
Currently players from Utah who wish to play summer league baseball and stay in Utah wind up in the Wasatch Wood Bat League... which is essentially a twice a week adult league for college and future college players. Decent concept, awful execution. Utah plays right into the perfect summer league model. The state of Utah features some beautiful ballparks that go underutilized. So for the first season I'd target 4 teams playing a 45 game schedule (15 vs. each team). Now here is where Utah becomes beneficial...the distance between the majority of the population is no greater than an hour in any direction from the capital, Salt Lake City. As such here are some potential venues...
Kearns, UT (Gates Field) (2500 Capacity) (Designed specifically for high school/college level play, perfect facility).
Murray, UT (Ken Price Ballpark) (5000 Capacity) (Renovated in the mid-2000s for the Babe Ruth World Series, currently used for high school baseball).
South
West Jordan, UT (Cate Field) (1000's Capacity) (Cate Field was also renovated in the 2000s and is home to the Salt Lake Community College Bruins).
Provo, UT (Larry H. Miller Field) (2,710 Capacity) (Built in 2001 for the Pioneer League Provo Angels, who ultimately moved 15 minutes up the road to Orem. The stadium is now used as BYUs home field).
The benefits to a summer league is Utah extend well beyond the logistical simplicity. Growth for example would be easy. Many of the high schools in Utah have gorgeous ballfields with grandstands, and while they may not hold 1000 people they could certainly draw 250-500 with no issues. Even the ski-town of Park City (though it's field has no seating) could be the perfect draw for college kids looking to have a little fun and play some ball (at 7000' feet).
Furthermore, head six hours south of Salt Lake and you have St. George (90 minutes from Las Vegas), and easily could host a Southern division, with teams in locations like Mesquite, Henderson, Cedar City, St. George, and even Las Vegas. Head north and you could expand to Logan, Idaho Falls, and Pocatello. For now though, I figure the key is to keep the cost down. As such, the longest trip a team would have to make in 45 minutes at the moment. By doing this, you eliminate many major expenses (hotels, buses) and allow the players to return "home" nightly.
Primarily you would expect the league to draw players from six states, Utah, Idaho, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada. Even if they only come from Idaho and Utah you will still be getting some decent talents. College of Southern Idaho is a former national champion for NJCAA, Salt Lake Community College was the #1 team this season, Dixie State is a former NAIA National Champion, Utah is a Pac-12 program, BYU is a WCC program. Currently, many of the states top players are either leaving the state or playing in low-level summer leagues. While certainly some of the best players will go to the Cape Cod League or Alaska or even the WCL, but on that same accord many players from those areas would love to come to Utah or see what it has to offer.
In talking with a coach from the top 5A program (largest high schools in Utah) that has produced 5 drafted players in the last three seasons, and put over 20 players onto college programs in the last four years, he agreed that Utah is the perfect market for a new summer league. The advertisers are out there, the infrastructure is there, the only thing missing is the teams and ultimately the community support.
Thoughts? Questions? Comments?
A little background, I know the area pretty well, and have a couple connections that helped me along the way.
Without further adieu, the Altitude Baseball League (sidenote, yes, the blog is AltitudeSports, but the leagues name comes from the state being "high-altitude")
College summer leagues are a popular diversion in the midwest (Northwoods League), New England (Cape Cod/NECBL), Southeast (CPL) and even Alaska. Yet one region that is really devoid of summer league baseball is Mountain West. Specifically speaking, UTAH is devoid of Summer League baseball.
Currently players from Utah who wish to play summer league baseball and stay in Utah wind up in the Wasatch Wood Bat League... which is essentially a twice a week adult league for college and future college players. Decent concept, awful execution. Utah plays right into the perfect summer league model. The state of Utah features some beautiful ballparks that go underutilized. So for the first season I'd target 4 teams playing a 45 game schedule (15 vs. each team). Now here is where Utah becomes beneficial...the distance between the majority of the population is no greater than an hour in any direction from the capital, Salt Lake City. As such here are some potential venues...
Kearns, UT (Gates Field) (2500 Capacity) (Designed specifically for high school/college level play, perfect facility).
Murray, UT (Ken Price Ballpark) (5000 Capacity) (Renovated in the mid-2000s for the Babe Ruth World Series, currently used for high school baseball).
South
West Jordan, UT (Cate Field) (1000's Capacity) (Cate Field was also renovated in the 2000s and is home to the Salt Lake Community College Bruins).
Provo, UT (Larry H. Miller Field) (2,710 Capacity) (Built in 2001 for the Pioneer League Provo Angels, who ultimately moved 15 minutes up the road to Orem. The stadium is now used as BYUs home field).
The benefits to a summer league is Utah extend well beyond the logistical simplicity. Growth for example would be easy. Many of the high schools in Utah have gorgeous ballfields with grandstands, and while they may not hold 1000 people they could certainly draw 250-500 with no issues. Even the ski-town of Park City (though it's field has no seating) could be the perfect draw for college kids looking to have a little fun and play some ball (at 7000' feet).
Furthermore, head six hours south of Salt Lake and you have St. George (90 minutes from Las Vegas), and easily could host a Southern division, with teams in locations like Mesquite, Henderson, Cedar City, St. George, and even Las Vegas. Head north and you could expand to Logan, Idaho Falls, and Pocatello. For now though, I figure the key is to keep the cost down. As such, the longest trip a team would have to make in 45 minutes at the moment. By doing this, you eliminate many major expenses (hotels, buses) and allow the players to return "home" nightly.
Primarily you would expect the league to draw players from six states, Utah, Idaho, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada. Even if they only come from Idaho and Utah you will still be getting some decent talents. College of Southern Idaho is a former national champion for NJCAA, Salt Lake Community College was the #1 team this season, Dixie State is a former NAIA National Champion, Utah is a Pac-12 program, BYU is a WCC program. Currently, many of the states top players are either leaving the state or playing in low-level summer leagues. While certainly some of the best players will go to the Cape Cod League or Alaska or even the WCL, but on that same accord many players from those areas would love to come to Utah or see what it has to offer.
In talking with a coach from the top 5A program (largest high schools in Utah) that has produced 5 drafted players in the last three seasons, and put over 20 players onto college programs in the last four years, he agreed that Utah is the perfect market for a new summer league. The advertisers are out there, the infrastructure is there, the only thing missing is the teams and ultimately the community support.
Thoughts? Questions? Comments?
Sunday, July 3, 2011
Independent Outlook
In this series I'll focus on players from the Independent Leagues who could use a shot with an affiliate. Some of these guys have played affiliated ball before, but none will have MLB experience. The reason behind this is that I want to highlight players who you may not know about. I'll have another feature on former MLBers now in Indy Ball another day. There are five main independent leagues, the North American League, the Can-Am League, the American Association, the Frontier League, and the top league, the Atlantic League. To start we will look at a player from two of the leagues starting with the Atlantic League.
Mike Loree
Position: RHP
Team: Long Island Ducks (Atlantic League)
Age: 24
Height/Weight: 6'6"-220
MLB Draft: 2007, 50th Round (SFG)
Loree is not the typical "prospect" but that's what this series is about. He was one of the final draft picks of the 2007 draft coming out of Villonova University where he won 20 games over four years, graduating as a 20 year-old (yep, you read that right, a September 1987 birthday graduated in 2007). As such he was young coming up, but was still pushed by the Giants after signing. He posted great numbers for the Giants Rookie ball team in 2007, and great numbers as a 21 year old in the Northwest League (SS-A) (4-3, 2.44 ERA, 15 Starts). In fact in his first two seasons Loree walked a whopping 8 guys in 97 innings while striking out 95. Yeah 11.875 K's per 1 BB, and he was only 21. At one point during his 2008 campaign Loree started the year by recording outs on 62 of the first 63 batters he faced. His manager during that time was Tom Trebelhorn (a Major League vet) who was quoted as saying:
"It's the most phenomenal pitching I've ever seen in my life. I don't know if anybody's ever pitched this good. I don't care if you're talking about the Northwest League, the Gulf Coast League or the Major Leagues. He has good command of his fastball, he pitches ahead in the count. If someone exposes a weakness, he exploits it. I don't know that anybody's ever pitched this good." --Tom Trebelhorn
So 2009 rolls around and Loree arrives in Augusta for Low-A ball. He goes 8-9 in 21 starts and posts a 4.67 ERA, but still strikes out 70 to 26 walks (so not quite as impressive) but he is only 22 years old, yet during spring 2010 he is released by the Giants and latches on with the Newark Bears of the Atlantic League (widely compared to between AA-AAA). While things were not pretty, the team was 53-86 and Loree went 6-9 (quite impressive actually) but overall was hit hard, in 130 IP he allowed 170 hits, 21 HR and walked a career high 43. But the positives were still there, despite allowing 108 runs, 20 were unearned meaning he was frequently hurt by his defense. Furthermore, he struck out 119 (also a career high), and keep in mind he was only 23 playing at a level much higher than he had in the past.
For 2011 he signed with the Long Island Ducks and has flourished. Thus far after starting primarily as a reliever, Loree has transitioned back to the rotation where he has dominated. He has won 7 starts in a row, and is 9-1 overall. He has posted an incredible 1.73 ERA, and has a 1.09 WHIP. He has struck out 68 over 62.1 innings and walked only 15. He is also only 24 years old, and seems to have perfectly adjusted to the Atlantic League. At only 24, Loree is in the perfect position to join a team at the AA level now, and test the waters. If he performs well I suspect he'd be able to adjust to the AAA-level and potentially be a Major League contributor by 2012.
Mike Loree
Position: RHP
Team: Long Island Ducks (Atlantic League)
Age: 24
Height/Weight: 6'6"-220
MLB Draft: 2007, 50th Round (SFG)
Loree is not the typical "prospect" but that's what this series is about. He was one of the final draft picks of the 2007 draft coming out of Villonova University where he won 20 games over four years, graduating as a 20 year-old (yep, you read that right, a September 1987 birthday graduated in 2007). As such he was young coming up, but was still pushed by the Giants after signing. He posted great numbers for the Giants Rookie ball team in 2007, and great numbers as a 21 year old in the Northwest League (SS-A) (4-3, 2.44 ERA, 15 Starts). In fact in his first two seasons Loree walked a whopping 8 guys in 97 innings while striking out 95. Yeah 11.875 K's per 1 BB, and he was only 21. At one point during his 2008 campaign Loree started the year by recording outs on 62 of the first 63 batters he faced. His manager during that time was Tom Trebelhorn (a Major League vet) who was quoted as saying:
"It's the most phenomenal pitching I've ever seen in my life. I don't know if anybody's ever pitched this good. I don't care if you're talking about the Northwest League, the Gulf Coast League or the Major Leagues. He has good command of his fastball, he pitches ahead in the count. If someone exposes a weakness, he exploits it. I don't know that anybody's ever pitched this good." --Tom Trebelhorn
So 2009 rolls around and Loree arrives in Augusta for Low-A ball. He goes 8-9 in 21 starts and posts a 4.67 ERA, but still strikes out 70 to 26 walks (so not quite as impressive) but he is only 22 years old, yet during spring 2010 he is released by the Giants and latches on with the Newark Bears of the Atlantic League (widely compared to between AA-AAA). While things were not pretty, the team was 53-86 and Loree went 6-9 (quite impressive actually) but overall was hit hard, in 130 IP he allowed 170 hits, 21 HR and walked a career high 43. But the positives were still there, despite allowing 108 runs, 20 were unearned meaning he was frequently hurt by his defense. Furthermore, he struck out 119 (also a career high), and keep in mind he was only 23 playing at a level much higher than he had in the past.
For 2011 he signed with the Long Island Ducks and has flourished. Thus far after starting primarily as a reliever, Loree has transitioned back to the rotation where he has dominated. He has won 7 starts in a row, and is 9-1 overall. He has posted an incredible 1.73 ERA, and has a 1.09 WHIP. He has struck out 68 over 62.1 innings and walked only 15. He is also only 24 years old, and seems to have perfectly adjusted to the Atlantic League. At only 24, Loree is in the perfect position to join a team at the AA level now, and test the waters. If he performs well I suspect he'd be able to adjust to the AAA-level and potentially be a Major League contributor by 2012.
Sign me up as a believer in Mike Loree, I can think of a ton of organizations that could use a Triple-A or Double-A starter that could mature into a MLB Back-end rotation guy.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Give 'Em A Shot: AAAA Players
So most die-hard fans know their team's top prospects, but what about the forgotten guys, the guys who are role-players, fillers, the like. Fact of the matter is some of these role-players for one team, could be a true contributer to a different major league club. In this weekly feature we will look at two "AAAA" players who could be a help to your big-league club.
Brian Barden
Age: 30
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 200
Organization: Rangers
Bats/Throws: R/R
Position: 3B/INF
Barden was drafted in the 6th round in 2002, and while he does have 119 games of MLB Experience, the guy has spent parts of the last EIGHT years at the AAA-level. He has played over 100 games at 2B, SS, and 3B. Barden is a reliable fielder, and is a career .300 hitter in the minors. He isn't a huge power-threat but he has a career .805 OPS in the minors, and can hit a bit. His time in the majors hasn't been great, .211 in 175 ABs. But he has also shown that he can have a role. I think of Andres Blanco when I see Barden, they are about the same build, and I think he could fit a Blanco-esque role quite nicely with the right-team. In fact they have nearly identical fielding percentages in the minors, with Barden holding a slight edge. Barden is a better hitter, and while he may not have the range of Blanco, I think he has greater value than Blanco. He does swing and miss more frequently than the average Major Leaguer, and this could be a hinderance, his career (combined MLB/MiLB) K rate is 20.8%.
Barden is the perfect utility infielder for a team that could use an above average fielder, and a decent hitter. He is tearing up AAA at the moment, (as of 6/28/11: .360/.405/.557) and really deserves a full-time MLB Bench gig. Surely there is some-team willing to flip a AAA-Reliever or low-level prospect for some quick and easy bench help.
Brian Barden
Age: 30
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 200
Organization: Rangers
Bats/Throws: R/R
Position: 3B/INF
Barden was drafted in the 6th round in 2002, and while he does have 119 games of MLB Experience, the guy has spent parts of the last EIGHT years at the AAA-level. He has played over 100 games at 2B, SS, and 3B. Barden is a reliable fielder, and is a career .300 hitter in the minors. He isn't a huge power-threat but he has a career .805 OPS in the minors, and can hit a bit. His time in the majors hasn't been great, .211 in 175 ABs. But he has also shown that he can have a role. I think of Andres Blanco when I see Barden, they are about the same build, and I think he could fit a Blanco-esque role quite nicely with the right-team. In fact they have nearly identical fielding percentages in the minors, with Barden holding a slight edge. Barden is a better hitter, and while he may not have the range of Blanco, I think he has greater value than Blanco. He does swing and miss more frequently than the average Major Leaguer, and this could be a hinderance, his career (combined MLB/MiLB) K rate is 20.8%.
Barden is the perfect utility infielder for a team that could use an above average fielder, and a decent hitter. He is tearing up AAA at the moment, (as of 6/28/11: .360/.405/.557) and really deserves a full-time MLB Bench gig. Surely there is some-team willing to flip a AAA-Reliever or low-level prospect for some quick and easy bench help.
Jose Constanza
Age: 27
Height: 5'9"
Weight: 150
Organization: Braves
Bats/Throws: L/L
Position: CF/OF
Ok, so looking at him, Constanza doesn't look like a ballplayer. But all he has done so far in 2011 is PRODUCE. He started 2011 as a Caribbean World Series All-Star, and has kept it rolling. Even historically Constanza produces, he was the DSL MVP in 2004, was an NYPL All-Star in 2005, and was an International League all-star in 2010, and repeating in 2011. His game is built around speed, in fact he was named the International League's fastest player last season. He made his AAA debut last season with Columbus (Indians AAA) and raked at a .319 clip. This season he isn't slowing down, through June 28th he is hitting .339/.386/.392. He has no power to speak of (his OBP is actually HIGHER than his slugging for his career, .367 vs. .360), so far he has a TOTAL of 7 extra base hits...and 76 singles. But he hits for average no denying that and can make things happen with his speed, 224 SB in 6+ professional seasons and an 80% success rate. His success rate has been 81.5% in AAA, and overall he has the potential to swipe one at anytime. He is a good OF, with good instincts, and great closing speed. He has a decent arm, recording 7 assists in 110 games last season, and doesn't make many mistakes (2 errors in 110 games).
He could be a valuable late season add for a team looking for a speed-boost and a good defensive replacement. That likely won't happen with the Braves, though I wouldn't count it out as they only have 5 OF on the 40-man roster and only Matt Young isn't with the MLB-team now. Instead Young is teaming with Constanza in Gwinnett and is hitting .310. Both Young and Constanza are similar players, but Constanza has the speed advantage and in my mind that makes him more valuable. Young being on the 40-man though will likely keep him with the Braves.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
The Forgotten Verlander
With all the hype surrounding Justin Verlander it is easy to forget that he wasn't highly regarded out of high-school. In fact his senior year he was topping out in the mid-80s. Old Dominion University gave him a shot, and within a year Justin was topping the high-90s. Now ten years later another Verlander is climbing atop the mound in Norfolk. Ben Verlander was drafted by the Tigers in the late rounds of the 2010 draft, but ultimately decided to attend ODU, where his brother has a strangle-hold on the majority of the pitching records. Size-wise there is some good projection on Ben, he is 6'4" and only weighs 180 pounds, and the bloodlines certainly point to Ben having some growth.
His first season at ODU was actually semi-successful, he made 21 appearances, and posted a 4.83 ERA 31.2 IP. That said the numbers aren't that pretty. 23 walks to only 18 K's, though he only allowed 30 hits. Opponents only hit .254 against him, and he only gave up 7 XB hits, which is impressive for a freshman with little to no velocity. He was second on the team in one category, hit batsman, with 7 (aka a little over 2 a game...) So let's take a look at his "true" value in terms of potential threats. In 31.2 IP Ben put 30 baserunners on via Walk or Hit Batsmen, he also allowed 30 hits. That's 60 baserunners in 31.2 IP, adjusted BRPIP (Baserunners per IP, WHIP with HBP included) is 1.90, UGLY. Especially when you compare it to his statistical WHIP, which was only 1.67). Other disturbing trends. Of his 95 outs, only 18 (18.9% came via K). The reason I find this disturbing is the fact that this means 81.1% of his outs he does record come on balls-in-play. The fact that he only allowed 18 runs (17 earned) shows that he definitely had some luck, especially when you consider nearly two baserunners per inning reached base.
Opponent's hit .276 against ODU meaning that taking this as the "baseline" for every 100 AB, 27.6 will be hits, futhermore, including Ben's K numbers, of the 72.4 "non" hits, 18.9 will be K's, meaning 53.5 balls will be put into play but result in outs. So on balls in play opponents should be hitting .340. When in reality against Verlander they were hitting, .313.
More fun, created on the spot numbers for you... ODU this season allowed 303 runs in 497.2 IP, they also allowed a total of 804 baserunners (via BB+HBP+base hit). So 1,493 outs were recorded by ODU. As a team they struck out 26.8% of those outs. The teams BRPIP was 1.62, so Ben was allowing baserunners at a rate of 2.52 more PER GAME than his teammates, yet his ERA, 4.83, was only slightly above his teams ERA of 4.58 (.35 more per game). So Ben was getting lucky.
Overall his Mid-80s fastball, and mid-range secondary pitch will get him by, but he isn't to be considered a serious prospect... At least yet. If there is one thing I wouldn't count out is him growing, gaining velocity, and becoming a stronger pitcher... That said, if it doesn't happen, I expect him to regress in 2012.
*Please note, all these numbers and my analysis is more for the fun of it. I'm not a sabermetrician, nor a mathematician, so I bet some of these are WAY off...but that said, I will say that as I expand this, i'll get more into the numbers.
I've captured some pretty low quality footage of Ben, but I might as well post it.
http://www.vimeo.com/20264123
His first season at ODU was actually semi-successful, he made 21 appearances, and posted a 4.83 ERA 31.2 IP. That said the numbers aren't that pretty. 23 walks to only 18 K's, though he only allowed 30 hits. Opponents only hit .254 against him, and he only gave up 7 XB hits, which is impressive for a freshman with little to no velocity. He was second on the team in one category, hit batsman, with 7 (aka a little over 2 a game...) So let's take a look at his "true" value in terms of potential threats. In 31.2 IP Ben put 30 baserunners on via Walk or Hit Batsmen, he also allowed 30 hits. That's 60 baserunners in 31.2 IP, adjusted BRPIP (Baserunners per IP, WHIP with HBP included) is 1.90, UGLY. Especially when you compare it to his statistical WHIP, which was only 1.67). Other disturbing trends. Of his 95 outs, only 18 (18.9% came via K). The reason I find this disturbing is the fact that this means 81.1% of his outs he does record come on balls-in-play. The fact that he only allowed 18 runs (17 earned) shows that he definitely had some luck, especially when you consider nearly two baserunners per inning reached base.
Opponent's hit .276 against ODU meaning that taking this as the "baseline" for every 100 AB, 27.6 will be hits, futhermore, including Ben's K numbers, of the 72.4 "non" hits, 18.9 will be K's, meaning 53.5 balls will be put into play but result in outs. So on balls in play opponents should be hitting .340. When in reality against Verlander they were hitting, .313.
More fun, created on the spot numbers for you... ODU this season allowed 303 runs in 497.2 IP, they also allowed a total of 804 baserunners (via BB+HBP+base hit). So 1,493 outs were recorded by ODU. As a team they struck out 26.8% of those outs. The teams BRPIP was 1.62, so Ben was allowing baserunners at a rate of 2.52 more PER GAME than his teammates, yet his ERA, 4.83, was only slightly above his teams ERA of 4.58 (.35 more per game). So Ben was getting lucky.
Overall his Mid-80s fastball, and mid-range secondary pitch will get him by, but he isn't to be considered a serious prospect... At least yet. If there is one thing I wouldn't count out is him growing, gaining velocity, and becoming a stronger pitcher... That said, if it doesn't happen, I expect him to regress in 2012.
*Please note, all these numbers and my analysis is more for the fun of it. I'm not a sabermetrician, nor a mathematician, so I bet some of these are WAY off...but that said, I will say that as I expand this, i'll get more into the numbers.
I've captured some pretty low quality footage of Ben, but I might as well post it.
http://www.vimeo.com/20264123
Introduction
Well long promised, finally delivered. The AltitudeSports blog is going to focus on all things baseball. My biggest goal is to not cover the typical, Major League news, Top Prospect news, and the like, but rather focus on the stories that may go untold, the players unseen, and the leagues you don't follow regularly. I'll regularly feature stories/updates on the "AAAA" player who may be able to help your team, or the Independent player who deserves a shot. I'll also take time to cover the NPB, KBO, and on occasion the Euro Leagues. During Winterball season I'll definitely be covering the teams and players who are tearing it up.
For the most part this blog will be for fun, but you never know what'll develop.
So without further ado, welcome to AltitudeSports.
For the most part this blog will be for fun, but you never know what'll develop.
So without further ado, welcome to AltitudeSports.
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