The Atlantic League vs. AAA

So the title might be a bit deceiving, but I am asking this question based on the fact that poor Mike Loree still hasn't been picked up by anyone. Before we get there though, let's see how three of the other recently featured players have been fairing since I covered them.

Brian Barden
Mere days after I wrote about him, he asked for his release from the Rangers organization so that he could sign with Hiroshima in the NPB. Since joining Hiroshima in Mid-July, Barden has appeared in 13 games for the big club and hit only .209/.292/.302 1 HR 1 2B and 7 1B... Not exactly pretty, but it is still early in his tenure there, and it does take some players awhile to get acclimated with the Japanese style of play.

Jose Constanza
A month after the article the Braves made a trade to acquire Michael Bourn and also decided that they would add Constanza to both the 40-Man Roster and the MLB Roster. Since joining the Braves, Constanza has been nothing but a big-time force. He and Bourn both have legitimate 80 Speed and make up, in my mind, the fastest OF in the MLB. Oh ya, he has continued to hit since joining the Braves as well. In his first 18 games he is hitting .385/.420/.523 with 2 HR and 5 SB. He has allowed the Braves to shuffle the lineups and allows the team to occasionally rest the slumping Jason Heyward. If Hayward can find his 2010 form, and Constanza can keep reaching base, the Braves will have a pretty prolific outfield for the next couple seasons.

Jimmy Swift
Not much to say here, the Rangers listened (haha), and moved Roof back to Hickory and promoted Swift to Myrtle Beach when Garcia went down with an injury. So far it hasn't gone well...but it's only been three games.

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Now the fun part, the Mike Loree conundrum.

Mike Loree turns 27 in a month (Oh and his age is confusing me PointStreak and Newsday both say 1984, MiLB and all other sources say 1986, but alas Villanova says 1984) , so yes that is a downside. He has no Major League experience, he has never pitched above Low-A in the minors, and he got rocked last year in his first season in the Atlantic League. Those are the negatives. But lets look at this from a future value perspective, with a month left in the season and the Angels AAA affiliate Salt Lake Bees pitching staff depleted, why not dip back into the Atlantic League and pick up Loree. Instead, the Bees tonight will send Matt Oye to the mound. Now, Matt Oye isn't bad, but he is 25 and spent the entire season in High-A. He just recently became a starter and his near 5 ERA in High-A isn't exactly inspiring. Now I realize the goal is to develop players, but why call-up Oye from High-A, where he has been average (5.32 ERA as a starter, 6 starts 23.2 IP) when Mike Loree is dominating in the Atlantic League. A league widely considered to have AAA-level hitting.

It is not like the Angels don't know the Atlantic League, in fact in June they signed both Jerome Williams and Matt Cusick. So now let's compare Matt Oye and for that matter another member of the Bees staff, Bear Bay, to one Mike Loree.

Loree this season for Long Island has gone 14-3 with a 1.79 ERA in 17 starts and 5 relief appearances. In 110.2 IP he has struck out 115 batters and walked only 27. For the that matter he has only allowed 92 hits, a 1.08 WHIP.

Matt Oye, pitching in the hitter-friendly California League, 4.87 ERA, 68.1 IP, 68 H, 25 BB, 54 K. Not exactly awe-inspiring. And as a starter, 5.32 ERA, 23.2 IP, 26 H, 7 BB, 19 K. Again not exactly pretty. And that was in High-A.

How about Bear Bay? Prior to getting a minor league deal with the Angels this offseason Bear Bay had spent the past three years in the Northern League (Low to High-A level Independent League) where he had an awful first season, but then two straight excellent seasons. Still his numbers, in a worse league, were never close to what Loree is putting up. Bear Bay in the indy's average 6.88 K/9 2.18 BB/9 and 1.27 WHIP. This season for the Bees, Bay has made 22 starts and 3 relief appearances, posting a 4.70 ERA in 143.2 IP. He has struck out only 86 and walked 32. Opponents are hitting .310 off of him. And he is starting every five days for the Bees.

So Mike Loree, pitching at a level that many consider comparable to AAA, is holding opponents to a .222 average, is averaging 9.35 K/9, and has been overmatching all of his opposition, and yet he is still on Long Island, pitching every fifth day for the Ducks, while Bear Bay and now Mike Oye make starts for the Salt Lake Bees in the AAA Pacific Coast League.

This is just one team out of 30 at the Triple-A level, I guarantee that there are others who could use a starter like Loree. You could get four maybe five starts out of him if you signed him now and get an accurate idea of if you'd want him back for next season. Meanwhile Matt Oye, who is still under control for three more minor league seasons could continue to build his arm strength in High-A with the hopes of him potentially becoming a valuable contributor down the road.

I'm never out to push one player being signed at the expense of another's career but I believe that many of the Atlantic League's players deserve more of a look than that get.

Comments?

Feast or Famine: Joey Butler

Another quick post to start today.

Joey Butler, playing for the Texas Rangers AAA affiliate Round Rock, has been on a tear this season. His slash line looks awesome, .333/.391/.511, but much like Jai Miller, Butler's numbers are deceiving. In 97 games he has 119 strikeouts. Furthermore in only three games this season (at AAA) Butler hasn't either A) had a hit or B) Struck-out. That is nuts. Prior to last night, during a 17-game strikeout streak Butler was hitting .703 when he actually made contact with the ball. The striking difference between Butler and Miller is that while Miller has been crushing homeruns, Butler only has 10. Still though, for the season, when he actually puts the ball in play Butler is hitting .494. Not quite Miller-like, but still quite impressive.

(Credit: Scott Lucas from the Rangers Minor League Report for the inspiration and the numbers from the last 17 games).

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

I read a blog post recently that got me thinking...


"Is a leadoff walk worse than a leadoff single? Nope. They're the same. Leadoff singles score 38 percent of the time, same as leadoff walks. The average number of runs are the same too, .902 runs per inning after a leadoff single."


In essence, I understand what the author is saying, but I feel like he is missing the KEY component. That component is the fact that the batter didn't have to swing the bat to reach base. Meanwhile in order to get a single you must first put the ball in play. Which statistics show happens between 29-30% of the time (BABIP). 


Maybe I am way off track, but the way I see it, a walk is much more deadly than a leadoff single, because simply, there is nothing the hitter has to do to influence it. Whereas the single must actually be contacted by the hitter.


Thoughts?

The Undrafted Player Paradigm

Question: Why is a player who is hitting .472/.562/.764 in 23 games still in Complex Rookie ball. Answer: He was undrafted. In this case, 23 year old Jimmy Swift of the Rangers organization. Yes, he was a 5-yr senior sign, yes, he is much older than the league average, but still... He is hitting nearly .500. Now as a four-year player at Creighton, Swift was never the star. In fact in his senior year he hit only .274/.350/.371. Still, i'm going way outside the box with this thought. In my opinion, if the player is undrafted, he is worth the risk to move up and play at a higher, more challenging level.

I feel this way because simply put you have nothing to lose. Swift for example is a middle infielder. And while he may not be a star, he has nothing left to prove in Surprise. Why not challenge him, see if there is any potential in there. Realistically he can be replaced next season if nothing appears positive. That said, if something does click, then perhaps you have a solid investment on your hands.

For example, assigning him to Myrtle Beach where he would back up Santiago Chirino and Leury Garcia (he of 32 errors). The current backups for these two are Andres James (one month older than Swift) and Jonathan Roof (13 months younger than Swift). Roof was promoted last month to back up Garcia, after hitting .265/.299/.365 for Low-A Hickory, not exactly awe-inspiring numbers. Especially once we take into consideration the fact that last season (as a rookie) he hit .256/.333/.288 for the same Hickory club. So now a month into his stay in Myrtle Beach, Roof is doing two things: Not playing frequently, and not playing well when he does play. Both of which damage his growth potential. Considering he was an 8th rounder last year as a Junior out of Michigan State, the Rangers have a lot more invested in him than they do Swift, and as such shouldn't be wasting his chance to grow. With Swift, the team took a flyer on him out of college and he is shining. If you place him in Myrtle Beach, even if he fails, at least you aren't costing yourself a large chunk of change. If he succeeds, you are in fact boosting his stock and making value on an undrafted player. Meanwhile, Jonathan Roof (the 8th rounder) has spent a month in Myrtle Beach, where he has played in 10 games, and had 36 at-bats, racking up a solid...four hits. 

As for Andres James, the other backup infielder in Myrtle, he is repeating the high-A level, and isn't doing it well. He has appeared in 61 games, hitting a pathetic .221 and walking only 4 times in 195 at-bats. For someone the same age as Swift (in fact older), James is doing nothing that Swift couldn't do himself. In fact, in his career James has done nothing to inspire confidence in his bat. He has never once had an OBP over .300... at any level. His career high in walks in 11. And that season he hit .199. 

So why are James and Roof playing in Myrtle Beach, while Jimmy Swift toils away in 110 degree Arizona heat? Simple, the Rangers, like many organizations hate to see wasted investments. Yet in reality they need to see this as a two-way investment. They've given six seasons to Andres James to prove himself in those six seasons he has put up the following slash line .235/.258/.277. He has a whopping 39 walks to 287 strike outs. And a career fielding % coming in at .930. He'll be a free agent at the end of the season so why not cut your losses now and give Jimmy Swift a month to show he has value. As for Jonathan Roof, he is still young (22) and has spent his entire career (save a week) in full season ball. He has a ton of value left, but currently is being short-changed development time by playing maybe once a series in Myrtle Beach. Send him back to Hickory and let him play and develop, as well as be prepared for next season.

In the end, it is all about perceived value. In my mind, Major League organizations short-change a lot of players with skill based on the fact that they were undrafted, or had be released, or were found in the independent leagues. The fact of the matter is, they need to treat these kind of players like penny stocks. Buy them low, and give them a chance to play/shine, if they succeed you've made a huge profit, if not you lose very little.