Trade Deadline Insanity

The trade deadline is always one of my favorite times of the year. I love the frantic nature of it, and I love the fans of teams going wild, or getting upset about players being moved.

Earlier today I listened to Philly Sports Radio and heard fans wanting to trade Amaro Jr (the GM) for Pat Gillick (the retired Hall of Fame GM). I heard those same fans bemoaning losing the two most athletic players on the team. Yet the simple fact is the Phillies needed to get younger, and they needed a change. That team wasn't going anywhere this season, and in adding five prospects they were able to build towards the future. They kept the rotation intact and if the team is healthy next-year they may be the favorite in the NL East.

Overall the Phillies added five players and strengthen the system. In adding Tommy Joseph they added a solid catcher (in fact both of the USA's futures game catchers were dealt, Rob Brantly is the other) who has the potential to develop into a 15-20 HR a season guy. I've heard some projections saying he has 20-25 HR power but I don't buy that. Nate Schierholtz isn't a prospect but he is a solid platoon bat for the corner outfield. Seth Rosin, is a nice arm to develop. From the Dodgers they added Ethan Martin, who with a little luck could become a #2-#3 starter down the road. And Josh Lindbolm who can jump into the bullpen right now and help bridge the gap to Papelbon.

The Pirates came into the deadline with an AWFUL situation in RF. They made two moves that I feel strengthen that position in adding Travis Snider (from Toronto) and Gaby Sanchez (from Miami). Neither have had much success at the Major League level but both are better solutions for the playoff push than Starling Marte or Alex Presley.

The Reds had the NLs best bullpen, and then they added Kansas City closer Jonathan Broxton. Nasty bullpen, simple as that. They sent the Royals two pitching prospects, J.C. Sulbaran (Eric Hosmer's HS Teammate) and Donnie Joseph.

The Cubs wanted to get younger, and they did. They dealt Geovany Soto and Ryan Dempster to Texas for Jake Brigham (AA Starter, up and down results), Kyle Hendricks (A+ Starter with a 7-1 K-BB Ratio) and Christian Villanueva (3B Prospect with solid OBP, buried behind Mike Olt and now Joey Gallo). Not a ton of upside, but all three are all potential roster fits. They also dealt Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson to the Braves acquring Arodys Vizcaino and Jaye Chapman. Vizcaino is out for the season with Tommy John but last season was considered one of the Braves big three prospects at SP. Chapman profiles as a good bullpen arm for the future but that is about it.

The Rangers added Soto and they added Dempster, the hope is that Soto solidifies the defense at Catcher, and by also acquiring Dempster they kept the battery together. I expect to see Soto 4 times out of 10 games in a week catching all of Dempster's starts.

The Angels added Zach Grienke and took a big risk by sacrificing three of their best prospects in an already weakened system. But they seem to have some bright spots coming through that system in CJ Cron and Nick Maronde (both college picks last season), and the opportunity to get better this season was there. So they took it.

The Blue Jays bullpen was incredibly beaten up, so they added Steve Delabar (from Seattle) and Brad Lincoln (from Pittsburgh) for two outfielders who were buried at the Major League level. In losing Eric Thames and Travis Snider the Blue Jays lost two players who needed an opportunity elsewhere and this gives them that. More importantly the bullpen added two very solid pieces.

The Braves got Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson from the Cubs, Maholm has been the best starter in the MLB over the last month, people just don't realize it. Johnson is the perfect bench-bat for the Braves, and I like this move.

The Red Sox wanted a left-handed reliever, so they added Craig Breslow from the Diamondbacks for overweight righty, Matt Albers and the speedy Scott Podsednik. Overall this move gives the Sox the opportunity to move Franklin Morales into the rotation full-time and gives them a solid left-handed option in the pen without sacrificing much. Sadly for them, they had the opportunity to move Cody Ross or Ryan Sweeney but when Sweeney hurt his hand punching the wall yesterday that ended that thought.

The Marlins continued the firesale of the past week and dealt, Edward Mujica to the Cardinals for former first-rounder Zack Cox (3B), in Mujica the Cardinals get a solid bullpen arm. They also acquired Gorkys Hernandez from the Pirates (for Sanchez) and the competitive balance pick from the Pirates (I believe it's #32). Earlier in the week they added Nate Eovaldi from the Dodgers (for Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate) and Eovaldi profiles as a good #4-#5 starter. They also made a big move to start the week adding Jacob Turner, Rob Brantly and Brian Flynn from the Tigers for Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez.

The Dodgers added Shane Victorino which immediately strengthens that outfield (Kemp, Ethier and Victorino) and gives the Dodgers a nice influx of defense and speed. They also bolstered the bullpen with Brandon League (former All-Star closer from Seattle) and Randy Choate (lefty veteran from the Marlins). Most importantly they added Hanley Ramirez and got him out of the mess that was developing in Miami.

The Giants matched the Dodgers outfield addition by adding Hunter Pence. Pence is a solid outfielder and I think with the Giants Pence will have a solid final two months.

The Mariners are in the constant rebuilding mode and made up for the AWFUL haul for Ichiro by adding a couple prospects one of whom will get a chance to spend the next two months in the majors. Eric Thames is a solid 4th outfielder, and has the potential to be an average starter. Logan Bawcom is a reliever who I think could develop for the Mariners and Leon Landry is a High-A outfielder who was a very solid college player at LSU and will now develop with the Mariners.

That's all i've got for now, later I'll be discussing Jeff Luhnow and what he has done with the Astros in his first seven months on the job!

Blown Saves: The Effect on Closers, and Your Team

Sat down to enjoy a mid-afternoon game yesterday. While I enjoyed the game I was baffled by the managerial decisions of the manager. Furthermore, I was even more baffled by the defense of the decision from local beat writers and local fans. Texas' Ron Washington failed to use his All-Star Closer in the bottom of the Ninth inning in a tie-game. Hell, he didn't even use his solid set-up man. Instead he used a pitcher who will for an intents and purposes will be back at AAA Round Rock later this month. Three pitches into the ninth inning, walk-off home-run for Oakland's Brandon Hicks.


So the outcry began, many fans wanted to know why Nathan wasn't used? Why Adams wasn't used? But then the foolish statements began. A sampling (twitter feeds redacted):

• "a blown save would have been more devastating than the walkoff we suffered, adams was the right move"
• "For us to win today, we needed a pitcher to get 3 outs with a lead, that is the situation for Nathan"
• "why wouldn't he use Adams to get to the 10th? Oh yea, he gave up a walk off not to long ago also."
• "Nathan wouldn't pitch on road in tie."

Before I even get into the statistical part of the study, let me ask you this hypothetical. 


Tie-Game Top 9, two on, no outs. You have a Triple-A level hitter up, but on the bench is your star player who also happens to be the best defensive player in the league. You don't bring the star player in, because you only want to use him when you have a lead on the road for defensive purposes. Your team fails to score, and loses in the bottom half of the ninth.


Think of the outrage, you would be seeing comments like "Fire Manager So-So for not playing star in the top of the ninth" Yet when a team doesn't bring its best bullpen arm into a tied game in the ninth inning, people come up with excuses. "Closer wouldn't pitch on the road in a tie" "Gotta save him for the save", give me a break, use your best available pitcher in the situation. The risk, you won't have him for the save in extra innings... Yeah exactly, you gotta get the lead first, and having the lead is pretty important...at least if you want to win the game.


Well I hate to break it to you, the save is merely a stat. No different than a win, it quantifies something sure, but in the end the value to a team of a win is much greater than the value of saving the closer in case there is a save.


So now to the fun part, debunking the myth that closers perform poorly after a blown save.


QUESTION: Do Closers Perform Worse In The Game After a Blown-Save?


For this study I took the 19 closer who have spent nearly the entire season as the teams closer (as such Washington and the Dodgers for example were not included, but Milwaukee, who just replaced Axford and the Giants, who appear to be close to replacing Casilla, were). I went through and compiled every blown save for these pitchers this season. In this case there were 53 Blown-Saves by the 19 pitchers in the study. I also compiled how many innings they lasted in the blown save, how many earned runs were allowed, and how many controllable base-runners reached during the outing (via hit, walk, intentional BB, and HBP). After that I looked at the game they pitched immediately following the blown-save and compiled the same statistics. If it wasn't a save opportunity I also looked if they converted the next save.


So the question is, does a blown-save have a negative effect on the "closers" next appearance?


Here is the data first for blown saves, followed by the outing immediately after a blown save:


Game in which blown-save occurred

• 53 Blown-Saves
• 47 IP
• 87 ER
• 164 BR (base-runners)
• 16.65 ERA
• 3.49 BRIP (base-runners per inning pitched)

Post-Blown Save

• 51 Games Pitched (2 pitchers have yet to pitch since the last BSv)
• 47.33 IP
• 14 ER
• 47 BR
• 2.66 ERA
• 0.99 BRIP

Overall Statistics For Sample Closers Regardless of Saves

• 353 Saves
• 53 Blown Saves
• 86.9% Conversion Rate
• 670.33 IP
• 227 ER
• 809 BR
• 3.05 ERA
• 1.21 BRIP

Let's take this a little deeper,


In those outings immediately post-blown save how many were save opportunities?

• 31 Post-BSv Save Opportunities
• 29 Saves
• 93.5% Conversion Rate

Meaning 20 of the appearances were not in save situations. But the 31 that were resulted in a conversion rate of 93.5% which is higher than the closers overall save percentage which was 86.9% (353 saves, 53 blown saves).


Furthermore in those 51 outings, 22 of them were clean outings (meaning no one reached base). 43.1% clean outings.


Lastly, how many saves were converted in the next save opportunity regardless of when in came for the closer? 

• 50 Save Opportunities (3 pitchers have yet to have a save op since the last BSv)
• 47 Saves
• 94% Conversion Rate

Almost directly in line with the statistic above. In other words, the next save opportunity you should expect a bump in performance from your everyday closer.


CONCLUSION:


A closer blowing a save does not have an overall negative effect on his next performance. In fact, statistically he performs at a higher level after a blown-save. Therefore, the cost of a blown-save to a team should not be considered when making game-based decisions.


If you are a fantasy owner and see your closer got a blown-save, don't sit him for the next game, chances are he'll get the save and chances are he'll perform at a higher level than before.


For comparison sake, the 19 closers in this study as a whole have put up the following "averages" throughout the season.

• ERA: 3.05
• BRIP: 1.21

Whereas immediately post-blown save

• ERA: 2.66
• BRIP: .99

So after a blown-save we have statistical evidence that the next outing they will actually outperform the average they could be expected to produce.