The Value of Baserunning

First and foremost, I think this is my most convoluted and strangely written piece. While it makes sense to me, I think I struggle to convey the point to the mass audience, so bare with me.

There have been plenty of studies on baserunning, and plenty of controversies surrounding it. I myself fall strongly into the category of aggressive baserunning wins ballgames. That said, I decided to take a look at all of the potentially baserunning situations and determining where the value was.

As such I looked at both stolen bases and advancing on a hit.

To conduct this study I took advantage of Baseball Prospectus' amazing run expectancy charts, and utilized the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

In an effort to not bore you with a ton of numbers and to get to the point I managed to calculate the changes in run expectancy for every potential situation of a stolen base or a caught stealing (with the exception of stealing home, because well if you steal home, in my mind the run expectancy is 1...)

A double steal of second and third with one out has the highest positive change in run expectancy. In that situation, with runners on first and second and one out the run expectancy for the inning is .8936, however after the double steal that jumps to 1.29. If the lead runner is caught, you still leave a runner in scoring position, but the run expectancy of a runner on second with 2 outs is only .3137.

Now you are saying well, you just lowered the run expectancy if you were caught by more than you gained if you stole successfully. That is correct, however consider this, any time you are caught stealing the damage is worse than if you successfully steal. For example with no outs, stealing second adds .2131 to the total run expectancy for the inning but getting caught costs you .5918 runs.

That said, the cost of outs in general is relatively high. Take a look at the following:

Cost of Outs with a runner on first and NO Outs.

Batter Out: .3474

Ground Into Double Play: .7533

Caught Stealing: .5918

So yes, if you are stealing there is a risk, so if you NEVER steal a base you will not risk losing runs. And that is the argument that many make regarding not stealing. That said, I went through and calculated the percentage of successful stolen bases you'd need to justify stealing. That number is 73.5%. So if you attempt 19 steals, you better be safe 15 times or you are hurting your team.

Of the 30 teams in 2011, 13 were successful more than 73.5% of the time. 8 of those teams were in the top 13 of stolen bases on the season. But stolen base prowess didn't correlate to winning. San Diego was easily the most successful team, converting 79.4% of their attempts, whereas St. Louis was the least successful converting 59.4% of their attempts. In fact, San Diego was caught only 5 more times than St. Louis, and stole 113 more bases. If you just pretend that they only ever stole second with no outs, San Diego added 24.08 more runs than St. Louis did via the stolen base. That said, we all know how 2011 ended, St. Louis won the World Series, and San Diego finished in dead last in the NL West with 71 wins.

Now then, time to defend why I feel the stolen base is still undervalued... If you need to be successful 73.5% of the time it means that 26.5% percent of the time you are caught... 48 catchers in 2011 caught fewer than 26.5% of attempted basestealers. Sure of those catchers barely played, but 13 of them started more than 60 games on the season. Some of the "names" Jason Varitek, A.J. Pierzynski, Josh Thole, J.P. Arencibia, John Buck, Carlos Ruiz. If you are facing any of these catchers and have decent speed chances are you can benefit from running.

Now I don't believe in reckless theft. For example, Juan Pierre last year was caught 17 times, and successful only 27 times. That is bad baserunning. Jacoby Ellsbury, 39 of 54, is just below-average. Coco Crisp stole 49 bases last year, in only 59 attempts, 84.5% success rate but his team was below the success threshold. That is because Jemile Weeks and Cliff Pennington were caught 20 times and were safe only 36 times. Both finishing in the top 20 for caught stealing (technically Crisp did as well, but 49 successful steals is a plus).

On the other hand, Texas featured Elvis Andrus, 37 of 49. Ian Kinsler 30 of 34, and Craig Gentry 18 of 18. The three of them combined to account for 85 stolen bases and 16 caught stealing. An exception 84.2% success rate. The team as a whole was 143 for 188, and accounted for 59.4% of the teams total stolen bases, but only 35.6% of the teams caught stealings. In other words, those three guys made up the most powerful trio of runners last season.

The reality is, the stolen base is an extremely valuable weapon that needs to be used in appropriate situations. Ian Kinsler for example is not a fast runner, in fact many scouts consider him a 45-50 in the speed category (ML Average), but in 2011 he was successful on 30 steal attempts (88.2% of the time), he picked his battles and won and in the four games he was caught, the Rangers won all four times. 2011 wasn't an anomaly though, for his Major League career he has been successful 83.8% of the time.

Advancing on the Hit:

A completely different theory to baserunning is advancing on a hit. For example going first to third on a single or scoring on a double from first. According to the Bill James Baseball Handbook 2012, Texas was the best team in 2011 in gaining bases... the worst, St. Louis. So again, baseball baffles.

The key in moving bases is to advance successfully without being thrown out. In the 2011 season Texas took 179 bases, and were thrown out only 15 times. A 90.2% success rate. Conversely, Arizona, took 159 bases and were thrown out 45 times. A 77.9% rate. For comparisons sake, the MLB average in 2011 was 85.2%. Perhaps most interestingly here is the fact that Texas took the second most bases, but were caught the fewest amount of times.

For the sake of this article, and because I am already getting far too wordy, I decided to only look at a runner on first advancing to third on a single. To do this I again consulted the run expectancy chart and found the run expectancy for a runner on first with no outs, one out, and two outs. From there I placed runners on certain bases based on results. What I found is that on a single, a successful advance from first to third (as opposed to just going station to station for one base) added .2487 to the run expectancy when there were no outs. With one out it adds .2498 to the run expectancy, however with two outs it merely adds .0408. In other words, with two outs, it is relatively pointless to risk advancing to third on a single.

Speaking of risk, what is the cost associated with attempting to take third on a single.

Well if you are the first out (In other words, runner on first one out now instead of first and second and no outs) and you cost your team .9298 runs. If you are the second out .6762. And if you make the third out trying to advance, .4344, but the inning is over. Again, risk-reward. A little less precise on my calculations here, but if you are successful in trying to advance 11 of the 14 times you attempt to do so with no outs (78.89%) you are adding to your overall run expectancy and helping your team. In other words, 29 of the 30 MLB teams were actually helping themselves when attempting to advance. Only Arizona fell below the 78.89% success rate cut-line.

With one out you only need to be successful 73.01% of the time in order to increase your run expectancy over the span of a season. However with two outs, you better be successful 91.41% of the time to justify attempting to take that extra base with two outs.

So the old adage, never try to take an extra base with two outs, is certainly true.

What I've managed to ascertain through this glimpse at baserunning is that in general the risk-reward payout is higher with no outs (duh) but the lowest risk and most reward comes with one out in all situations. The biggest reason I can think of for this is advancing or stealing typically takes you out of a double play situation. As such by taking the extra base if the next batter hits a routine groundball to short instead of being an easy force out the base-runner now has options. With no outs, if a double play occurs the inning continues, but with one out the inning is over.


All in all baserunning is an aspect of the game that in the past was highly valued, then tapered off in the 90s and 2000s and is slowly returning to prominence. I believe that a player with plus baserunning skills (not necessarily speed) is one of the most valuable tools a player can have. Especially when it is paired with a high frequency of reaching base.

Thanks for the patience, I hope some of this made sense. Feel free to ask any questions.

A Quick Look: Bridgeport Bluefish

Continuing my viewers guide for tonight's ESPN Classic/ESPN 3 broadcast. Here is the Bridgeport Bluefish lineup for tonight.

LF: Joey Gathright, one of my all-time favorite players (I think it had something to do with the video of him jumping a car), Gathright opened this season in AAA before returning to Bridgeport, he finished last year as a pinch-runner for the Boston Red Sox. Only 12 stolen bases this year which kind of shocks me.

2B: Luis Figueroa, 38 year old infielder who has three seasons of MLB experience. The Puerto Rican began the season with the Skeeters before he was sent to the Park City (Bridgeport). Solid second-basemen.

RF: Prentice Redman, 33 year old outfielder with one season of MLB experience, Prentice Redman has good power and provides a solid skill player in the heart of the lineup. In 1402 career minor league games Redman is a .279 hitter. Leads the active roster with 12 homeruns.

1B: Willis Otanez, 39 year old cleanup hitter who hasn't been in the majors since 1999 but spent parts of 1998 and 1999 in the majors. Otanez is in his seventh season with the Bluefish (10 years of Atlantic League experience), but started the year in Mexico where he blasted 16 home-runs and hit .275.

3B: Luis Lopez, 38 year old infielder who is in his fifth season in the Park City. Lopez last appeared in the Majors in 2004, and all his MLB experience was with the two canadian franchises. According to the Bluefish, Lopez ranks in the top five of many of the major hitting categories for the history club.

CF: James Simmons, 26 year old outfielder who spent parts of last year in AAA with the Giants. He started this season in the Frontier League (which is arguably the most developmental of the Independent Leagues), Simmons provides good pop and good speed and is the first player in the line-up without MLB experience. Has 11 homers this season in 69 games, he is also 10 for 10 stealing this year.

CA: Luis Rodriguez, 38 year old catcher is a player/coach for the Bluefish and has had eight stints at the AAA level. His nickname is "The Machete" and reports say he has the strongest arm among the Atlantic League's Catchers. An average hitter, and an above-average catcher.

DH: Kennard Jones, 30 year old is the son-in-law of Tony Gwynn. This is his fifth season in the Atlantic League and coming into this season he has a career average in the league of .298. He has plus speed and makes for a deadly baserunning pair with leadoff hitter Joey Gathright and ninth hitter Ed Rogers. Leads the team with 24 SB.

SS: Ed Rogers, 33 for four more days, Rogers has MLB experience over three seasons with the Baltimore Orioles. Rogers is a below average middle-infielder but does have plus-plus speed and spent the past two seasons with the AAA affiliate of the Diamondbacks. Rogers is 19 for 20 this season stealing bases.

SP: Brad Thompson, 30 year old starter Thompson last appeared in the majors in 2010, and has six years of MLB experience. Thompson went to camp this year with the Twins and made four appearances in AA before joining the Fish. Out of the bullpen in 2006, Thompson won a World Series ring with the Cardinals.

A Quick Look: Sugar Land Skeeters

This is going to set the record for shortest post. But I figured since I love independent baseball and I love the Atlantic League I thought it might be appropriate to talk briefly about the Sugar Land Skeeters and the lineup that will be playing with Roger Clemens tonight.

So without further adieu, the lineup:

3B: Ofilio Castro, a 29 year old Nicaraguan national who reached AA last season with the Nationals organization. He is the teams leading hitting, hitting .301 through 97 games. He is a solid defender and provides reliable support for Clemens on the hot-corner. He walks as frequently as he strikes-out and is the perfect leadoff hitter to set the table. His one downside is the lack of speed but he is a solid hitter nonetheless.

2B: Dominic Ramos, 29 year old who has spent the past years in other independent leagues. He was a 17th rounder of the Red Sox in 2005, but spent the past season with the Bill Buckner managed Brockton Rox of the Can-Am League. Ramos is second on the team with 11 homeruns and is also a good defender at second.

CF: Bubba Bell, the third 29 year old in a row in the lineup has a career minor league line that is impressive, .287 Avg, 374 runs, 664 hits, 130 doubles, 61 home runs and 341 RBIs in 642 affiliated games from 2005 through 2011 (when he reached AAA with the Mets).

DH: Jason Lane, the designated hitter needs know introduction, Lane was an extremely solid Major League outfield in the mid-2000s and clubbed a homerun in the 2005 World Series for the Astros. Recently Lane has converted to pitching and acts as the DH for Skeeters in other days. But has made 12 starts for the Skeeters and may piggy-back Clemens tonight.

RF: Dionys Cesar, 35 year old switch hitting utility infielder/outfielder. Was in the Atlantic League in 2007 before bouncing overseas to Japan (Chunchi Dragons) and returning to play in the Mexican League. Just recently joined the Skeeters and provides critical versatility.

LF: Steve Moss, 28 year old who was a back-to-back all-star with the Bluefish the past two seasons. He clocked 41 homers over that span. He was a 29th rounder out of high school in 2002. He is having a major down season by all standards, but still is a major threat to pop one out.

1B: Aaron Bates, 28 year old who is probably the second-most recognizable name in the batting order. Bates had 11 Plate Appearances with the Red Sox in 2009 and spent the first-half of 2012 with the Cardinals and Twins AAA affiliates.

SS: Iggy Suarez, 31 year old infielder who was a Red Sox draftee in the early 2000s but has spent the last few years bouncing around the Atlantic League. Suarez is a relatively weak hitter, though he shows flashes of power. In the infield Suarez is good, but not great.

CA: Octavio Martinez, 33 year old catcher draws the start and will catch Clemens. Martinez was the starting catcher last season for the Atlantic League Champion York Revolution. In 2000 Martinez was an All-Star in Rookie Ball, but since then has bounced around. He is an overall solid catcher, but provides little with the bat. He is hitting over .250, but has only 8 extra base hits this season.

I expect Clemens will go 2-3 innings tonight, but I think he'll hold his own. The Bridgeport Bluefish have a ton of Major League Experience (17 players on the roster, active and inactive) and will likely set the table with speedster Joey Gathright. Other Bluefish names you may recognize include Shea Hillenbrand (7-year MLB vet) and Luis Lopez (2-year MLB vet).

Let's enjoy this, live on ESPN3 and ESPN Classic.

Pittsburgh's Dream Season Is Too Flawed To Continue

If you are a Pittsburgh Pirates fan, I know what your thinking, this is the season we finally breakthrough, we are going to make the playoffs. I hate to break it to you, come October 1st you won't be one of the Top 5 in the NL. Do I expect McCutchen to regress? No, I think he'll be one of the top 10 OFs for years to come. Do I expect A.J. Burnett to pitch more like A.J. Burnett, nah... I just simply realize the Pirates are playing above their talent level, and without a couple small changes are in for a rude awakening.

Realization 1: The Pirates are 8th best team in the NL.

Coming into today, August 15th, there are 46 Pirates games remaining. As of this writing they sit 4th overall in the National League... But 5th, 6th, and 7th are all within one game of them. 5th. 7th Place is where I see them finishing up, and while it'll be close, I cannot envision this years Pirates club as a playoff team.

As you know, I am a huge stat geek, but I tend to balance my statistical preference with an eye towards reality. In other words, just because stats say so and so is awful, I'm not one to jump right into it. That said, when looking through Baseball Prospectus' wonderful Adjusted Standings tool (check it out here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/) I came to realize the Pirates are really not that good. Good yes, playoff bound, no.

Taking a look at the Adjusted Standings the Pirates are third in the NL Central in all three major adjusted standing categories (accounting for things like equivalent runs and averages throughout a season). In fact using the 3rd Order Win Percentage, which Baseball Prospectus describes as: "A team's projected winning percentage, based on underlying statistics and adjusted for quality of opponents." the Pirates aren't even a .500 team. Basing things off the 1st Order Win Percentage which takes into account the how many times a team should have won based on their run differential the Pirates should be 60-56 (they are actually 64-52). That record would leave them in eighth overall based on 1st Order win percentage. Using 3rd Order Win Percentage, the Pirates would be sitting in eighth as well, and only a game out of ninth. Making things even worse, they are only a game better than the Phillies according to 3rd order. Philadelphia is 11 games under 500.

Realization 2: The everyday lineup for the Pirates has a critical flaw, production.

The Pirates prior to the trading deadline were getting the worst production out of the RF position of any team in baseball. They did a nice job acquiring some pieces to temporarily stop the bleeding, but as with any short-term fix within a long-term plan...temporary won't win the pennant. 

But that is only the tip of the iceberg. The Pirates as a team are hitting .246/.302/.406, only the Cubs and Mariners are worse as a whole... To make things even worse, let's take Andrew McCutchen out of the equation... 

TRUE: .246/.302/.406
W/O CUTCH: .232/.283/.382

.232/.283/.382 (Note for the purpose of this OBP was quick-computed, and therefore may vary from the true total). Those totals would put them in 29th in Average, 30th in OBP, and 23rd in Slugging. Overall it makes them the worst offense.

Things get scary after Neil Walker and Garrett Jones, the other 5 primary players in that line-up, aren't capable of carrying the team anywhere. Starling Marte is one of my favorite prospects, but he isn't Major League ready. 20 Ks in his first 80 ABs, 3 walks. He's got the power, but the rest of the skills aren't quite there. In the future, I think he'll be a good player with a high K% and low OBP. For most teams this kind of player projects as a 7-8 hitter. His speed might help him out, but he is currently leading off for the Pirates, and not reaching base nearly enough...

I'm hoping Travis Snider is the real deal, I've always been high on him and I think he is the perfect Lefty Corner Outfielder for the Pirates, so there is a plus. Furthermore, I think his platoon-mate, Gaby Sanchez will perform much better now that he is out of his hometown, Miami.

Realization 3: A good bullpen is only as good as its weakest link

The Pirates bullpen has been a great story this year, but lets just say there are some scary peripherals hiding when you look deeper. Take for example this nugget, Tony Watson is the only lefty in bullpen, and lefties are hitting .242 against him. 

Jason Grilli has been great this season, but what gives, prior to this year Grilli had one great year, 2008 with the Rockies and then a solid end to 2011 with the Pirates. The key this year has been an unreal, and unsustainable K rate (14.03) compared to his career MLB Average (7.61) and MiLB Average (6.71). As the K-rate fall the contact rate will grow this becomes problematic because of the fact that despite his success he is still allowing 1.06 HR per 9. In his dominant year in Colorado (COORS FIELD PEOPLE) he allowed .15 per 9. He isn't getting many ground balls, and 13.2% of his fly balls are leaving the yard. So if the K-rate drops the ERA and the HRs will grow. One explanation for his success is the fact that he is throwing harder than he ever has before and his slider is slower than before. For his career Grilli sat around 92.5 with the fastball and 84.5 with the slider. This season he is averaging 93.8 with the fastball and 82.6 with the slider. An 11 MPH drop. Furthermore those are the only two pitches he is throwing after previously throwing a Curveball and a Change-up. 

Jared Hughes another bright bullpen arm is a rookie and while he has been successful this season, he risks overexposure and must adapt. This is witnessed currently as he has been rocked in August. Allowing 6 ER (the same amount he allowed in April/May and one more than he allowed in June/July). He's been good, but recently it has been bad, and I suspect that is just the season and the action wearing him down.

So right there we have three critical flaws in the bullpen from three pitchers that have pitched in 47, 47, and 46 games respectively (the top 3 on the team, along with Hanrahan at 47 as well).

It gets uglier as we go deeper into the Pen, Juan Cruz somehow has a below 3 ERA despite having a 1.64 WHIP. To put that WHIP into perspective, the other 5 pitchers with an identical WHIP have the following ERAs: 7.36, 6.44, 8.18, 6.14, 8.44. Yup, in other words Cruz has been really damn lucky.

So what is the solution for the bullpen? Risk-taking. As with the success Jared Hughes had earlier this year and Jason Grilli is having both are new looks to opponents. Hughes is a rookie who hadn't been overexposed at the Major League level, he succeeded early and has faltered late. Grilli has become a totally different pitcher than he was in the past and has had season-long success. In order to help these guys and add a critical left-handed arm to the bullpen the Pirates need to make two moves.

First promote Justin Wilson. Wilson is a starting pitcher, and is considered the closest to the majors of the Pirates young arms (he turns 25 this month so I don't consider him a high-level prospect), but Wilson is left-handed, has been stretched out all season and has dominated Triple-A Lefties. In 39 innings vs lefties this season Wilson has allowed 17 hits, 26 walks and struck out 35. They are hitting .131 against him. In other words, perfect for the one out, focus on just the lefty role. Adding him to the roster is going to happen this year, but in needs to happen this week. He is already on the 40-man so it'll be a straight up transaction.

Secondly, purchase the contract of Tim Wood. Wood is a name familiar to Pirates fans and has plenty of Major League Experience, 57 games. He was recently named the Best Reliever in the International League and has been extremely effective against AAA hitters. Honestly, he is a better solution than Juan Cruz. Yes he has struggled in the Majors before, but the simple fact is the bullpen needs a quick make-over to protect the strong back-end.

Overall Analysis:
The Pirates are one of the best stories of the season. Andrew McCutchen has been so critical to the team that without him this team is worthless. He would be my likely vote for MVP because he truly embodies the Most Valuable Player to his team. Unfortunately the offense outside of him is anemic and needs a boost. That just won't happen this season. There is an outside chance that the platoon of Snider and Sanchez helps them win a couple games and stay in the race through September but this is still the 8th best team in the National League. The rotation has been solid all year and I suspect will continue to give the team a good 6 innings night in and night out, the bullpen however is WAY over-performing and this will be the undoing of the team. There is a chance they can add the bullpen pieces needed to hold onto a couple games, but realistically I think the bullpen's above to regress to the mean and perform like what they are, an average bullpen.


I see them finishing above .500 (YAY!!!) and Clint Hurdle winning Manager of the Year. I also see A.J Burnett getting a shot at comeback player of the year. Sadly though, the Pirates will be missing the playoffs by 4-5 games. I honestly hope I am wrong, but I just don't see it happening.

Pioneer League First-Half Prospect Update

Over the past two months, I've seen six of the eight Pioneer League teams 3+ times. I've shot video, compiled reports, and taken a look at the stats of the players. Now you may be wondering why the Pioneer League? Simple, the Pioneer (Rookie) League is the starting point for many guys who will ultimately go on to become Major prospects. Names like Prince Fielder and K-Rod have passed through the league in the past ten years. This year First Rounders like Robert Stephenson, David Dahl and Corey Seager began their professional journey in the Pioneer League. 


So with that, let's look at some of the stars and some of the flops of the first-half of the Pioneer League season. In doing so, keep in mind, the statistics from the Rookie-level are rarely the perfect indication of future skills, but some of the metrics are an indication of ability.


The first half (38 games) was taken easily in Montana by the Great Falls Voyagers (White Sox) and taken in the final game down south by the Ogden Raptors (Dodgers). That said teams like Orem (Angels) came on strong late (and they have made the playoffs 11 straight seasons) and teams like Idaho Falls (Royals) overachieved despite having to share prospects with two other rookie level affiliates.


So who performed at the top of the leagues and the bottom in some of these metrics?


To find "Qualifiers" I took only hitters who have played in at least half of their teams games (19).


The leagues worst strikeout victims are as follows:

Strikeout Percentage

Tyler Williams 53.8%

Max White 42.5%

Justin Bianco 40.8%

Raul Mondesi Jr. 36.8%

Julian Yan 36.4%

Tyler Linton 36.3%

Ryan Garvey 35.2%

T-H Nam 33.0%

Gabriel Rosa 32.1%

Of these players seven of the nine are identified as true prospects, and the other two (Garvey and Williams) have some Major League Bloodlines. Tyler Williams is White Sox GM Kenny Williams son, simply put he has absolutely no business taking a roster spot from anyone. Counting last season Williams has had184 professional at-bats all at the rookie league level and struck out in 98 of them. 53.2%. Former NL MVP Steve Garvey's son Ryan is another interesting case. Ryan was mid-teens pick last season but didn't sign and enrolled at USC, he withdrew from USC and went the JuCo route, winding up drafted around the 32nd round this year. Signed and began his professional career. Some things have been positive for Garvey, he has hit 5 homeruns (league lead is 9), and started off hot with the bat, but as July progressed the Ks did as well, 35.2% is way too high to be successful, but I wouldn't write him off yet due to the bloodlines.

As for the prospects in this group the most disappointing thus far are easily Max White, and Gabriel Rosa. Rosa was the Reds #20 prospect coming into the season and did a decent job of not striking out a ton in his first pro exposure last summer, but the second rounder has regressed as the talent level stepped up. Most disappointing is the fact that he has had 76 ABs and struck out in 25 of them...and only walked once. OUCH. He has 14 total hits. Last year in 108 ABs Rosa walked 8 times to 28 strike outs. I'd take that any day over what he is putting up this season.

As for Max White, buyer beware, White was the Rockies 2nd rounder this year and he got off to a decent start in June going 7 for 25 with 5 walks and 9 strikeouts. Not great but not awful... July on the other hand... UGLY at the end of the first half White had gone 4 for 48 in July with 9 walks and 22 strikeouts... Put those together and you get an ugly picture. 

The last two guys I wanted to expand upon in this section are Justin Bianco and Tyler Linton, both D-Backs OFers. And both struggling. Linton was the D-Backs #22 prospect coming into the season, but his THIRD trip to the Pioneer League hasn't changed much, in fact his average is down (and this is an extremely hitter-friendly league). Linton was an incredibly talented athlete in North Carolina and was bought out of a football scholarship to UNC to play baseball. While he has the speed and the raw-power he has yet to convert it to a game situation. The whiff rate is just far too high still to consider him a top-tier prospect and the fielding is almost comical to watch at times. That said, Linton does rank in the top ten of extra base hits, 46% of his hits have been for extra bases, so the power is seen when he makes contact. As for Bianco, well he has now had nearly 300 at-bats in the Pioneer League and managed 60 hits and 121 strikeouts... Ok... Ouch.

How about some positives now?

I took all of the measurable metrics (things like BB%, K%, K/BB, BABIP, etc...) and created a formula to determine which players were the sharpest overall at the level. In some cases this is because the player is more talented than the league, or in other cases the player is much younger than the league and is still developing. Needless to say, the closer to the number one (1) the better. The highest possible score was 80, and in this case that is not a good thing.

This number i've deemed the Average Rating of Player Productivity (ARPP).

The leaders (the lower the number the better the results)

Joel Capote (12.4)

Seth Meijas-Brean (14.2)

Kyle Robinson (20.2)

Jonathan Walsh (23)

Alfredo Rodriguez (23.4)

Jesse Winker (24.6)

Adam Heisler (26)

Rudy Flores (26.4)

David Dahl (26.6)

Micah Johnson (26.6)

Beau Amaral (26.6)

Of the top 11, 9 of the players were college juniors or seniors when drafted. Only David Dahl and Jesse Winker, both first rounders this season were not. As such it should come as no surprise that some of these guys lead the way in terms of their ability compared to their peers at the Pioneer League level. Furthermore the results of players like Winker and Dahl are even more impressive when you consider that they are nearly three years younger than the leagues average age. In fact in my first half top ten prospects both Dahl and Winker are in the top five (the final list i'll publish in September once I've seen every team). Of those nine college players the majority of them are from "BCS" baseball schools, Meijas-Brean (Arizona), Robinson (Arkansas), Walsh (Texas), Rodriguez (Maryland), Johnson (Indiana) and Amaral (UCLA). Capote (Started his career at Miami-Dade JC, then transferred to FIU before finishing at St. Thomas), Heisler (South Alabama) and Flores (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi) were all senior-signs. Of the three, Capote has been the most impressive, in fact I'm tempted to include Capote on my top prospects list. He runs well, he gets on-base, he walks more than he strikes out and he is an impressive fielder. He started the year in the Arizona League and was quickly bumped to Orem (Angels) where he has been the lead-off hitter, setting the table for two of the leagues top three home-run hitters (Wade Hinkle and Michael Snyder) and then Jonathan Walsh (on this list).

And the laggards (The higher the number the worse the results)

Tyler Williams (69.2)

Raul Mondesi Jr. (67.4)

Gabriel Rosa (64.4)

Kevin Thompson (62.4)

Justin Bianco (61.4)

Tyler Linton (60.2)

Julian Yan (59.8)

Elier Hernandez (59)

Jon Matthews (58.4)

Ben Waldrip (56.2) 

As for this grouping... Tyler Williams we've touched on. Raul Mondesi Jr, beside being Raul's son is most famous for failing to touch home after hitting what should have been a game-tying homer. Gabriel Rosa we've talked about, same with Linton and Bianco. Kevin Thompson is a roster-filler for Ogden (he even pitched in a game). That leaves Ben Waldrip (a towering first-basemen), Jon Matthews (an OF for Billings that just cannot get playing time on a team that features Amaral, Winker and Jeff Gelalich as it's traditional OF. Elier Hernandez (last seasons top Dominican prospect according to many), and Julian Yan (another former highly-ranked J2 signing). Of those three Hernandez has been the most disappointing. 

Elier Hernandez (Royals): Playing on Idaho Falls along with Mondesi's younger brother Adalberto, Elier has yet to breakout (though he is only 17, so I am not concerned there) The great John Sickles said that Elier has "excellent raw power" and that may be true but it hasn't been seen yet. In the Pioneer League even weak hitter pop homeruns, and Hernandez has yet to do that. In my mind the bigger disappointment is not the stats (they will come as he grows) but the fact that he is outshone on a  daily basis by the 16 (just turned 17) year old Adalberto Mondesi. That said, Hernandez also hasn't shown the speed that was rumored (hasn't even stolen a base), and has been erratic at the plate (35 Ks to 7 BB). He has however showed the plus arm and the plus accuracy in the outfield. If the bat comes around he has the potential to be a pretty solid corner outfielder, and I think the bat is coming! We shall see... The best thing about a 17-year old in the Pioneer League is that he still has 5+ years of development left. These things take time. Julian Yan frustrates me the most on this list. The tools are there, the power is there, but things are missing. In the three games I caught in July featuring Yan he displayed three totally different batting stances and approaches to pitches. He uses a double-tap load mechanism, then his coach yells at him and he goes to a high leg-kick, then with two strike, the lower-body stays perfectly still. It is almost disturbing. He'll be 21 this off-season so he needs to figure it out to have even a remote chance.

That is all for the hitters, and while pitchers in the league are a bit tough to figure out I will say that three of them truly stood out in the first half.

Robert Stephenson (Reds): In my mind he is probably the #2 prospect in the Reds entire system, and he has moved up to Dayton, so he will be tested even more. Stephenson features a Mid-High 90s fastball and a power 12-6 curve-ball to induce really weak contact and many swings and misses. I currently see him as more of a thrower than a pitcher, but he shows great poise, and makes adjustments well. The control is erratic, which leads to the thrower analogy, but that said at the lower-levels he didn't walk many, and struck out a ton. As a high-school first rounder last season, Stephenson has proven his worth early this year. Here we have a rare pitcher that I would consider a potential ace. As with any high-schooler it is extremely difficult to project how the next few years will go, but with his fastball and curveball alone he could be successful. If he manages to add even an average change-up he'll be a #2-#3, and if that can become a plus pitch you've got a starter with overpowering velocity and two plus off-speed pitches. That in my mind gives you an ace potential. That said, buyer beware, Stephenson does display the dreaded inverted W, which more often than not has been leading to pitchers injuring elbows or shoulders.

Sam Selman (Royals): The Vanderbilt product was seen as a top pick coming into the season, but various concerns slowed him down and caused him to fall to round two. He has been healthy thus far in the Pioneer League and dominating. In 32 innings the lefty has struck out 44 and walked only 8. Opponents are hitting a mere .209 against him. His wind-up is a herky-jerky mess (to the point where people openly call him Crazy Legs), and I suspect that has lead to some of his injury problems (but I am not a coach or a doctor) so all I care about in this case are the results. He is incredibly wiry (6'3" 165) and as he fills out (if he fills out) he may add velocity to what is already a 92-94 MPH fastball. Selman features some great velocity for a lefty and has the secondary pitches to succeed. I suspect his absolute ceiling is that of a #2 starter, but that realistically I see him as a #4-#5 starter at his floor. If he adds some muscle and stays healthy he'll move quickly.

Ross Stripling (Dodgers): Texas A&M this season was lucky to have both Ross Stripling and Michael Wacha in the rotation. As Stripling has begun his pro career in the Pioneer League, hitters see why Texas A&M had a dominant regular season. Stripling was senior sign, and needs to move quickly, but he has been dominating the Pioneer League while the Dodgers manage his innings. I suspect you'll see him open next season in AA and that is why I am ranking him here. He features an average fastball and is a major control pitcher, sat right around 8.5 K's per walk in college and is at 11 K's per walk professionally. This is attributed to his curveball which is a major plus pitch. It sits in the mid 70's with good hard break and has the potential to truly get pathetic swings. He also features an average change-up that if it develops gives him three usable pitches. He will be a major leaguer one day, and I suspect that'll be in late 2013, or early 2014. His peak is probably that of a #3 starter but the floor is that of a #5. As such, he's one to watch.