In the last 5 months Major League Baseball has been rocked by two age-scandals involving star players. In September, the Miami Marlins placed Leo Nunez on the restricted list. Later in the month it was revealed that Leo Nunez was actually Juan Carlos Oviedo, and was 18 months older than originally thought. Then just today January 19th, the Cleveland Indians learn, Fausto Carmona, wasn't actually Fausto Carmona, but rather, Roberto Hernandez Heredia. On top of that, he wasn't 28 but rather 31.
No then here comes the interesting twist... Why would a player falsify his information? Simple answer, money.
Take it from Edward Mujica (Oviedo's good friend and teammate with the Marlins) "[a]t 17 years old, you maybe lose $100,000 or $150,000 when you sign [compared to a 16-year-old with the same skills]. And if you're like 18, you might sign for $5,000 and maybe they give you an opportunity."
He is completely right, teams love taking risks on 16-year olds, pumping millions a year into the international free agent market, but they also rarely pay much for 18-year olds, despite the fact that they are essentially the same age as a high school player.
Now with the new CBA spending in the international market may be curtailed. And within the next few years we may see an international draft. That said, the international draft may have some major consequences (I personally am not a fan of the International Draft), especially because of the 18-year old age and high school graduation rules put in place in the 1990's when the MLB added Puerto Rico to the Rule 4 draft.
So with that said, what is the easiest solution?
In my mind the solution will come when teams begin to realie a couple things: Dominican players (and all foreign players) are currently being signed at 16-years of age. Fausto Carmona signed when the Indians thought he was 16, in 2000. Now it has been revealed he was 19. That said, his development speed was very similar to a college junior draftee. He reached the majors at 25, and dominated the AL at 26. Five years later he is still a pretty decent pitcher but is he worth the $8 million dollar option the Indians just picked up? Well that's tricky, I didn't think he was before I knew he was 31, so now that he is actually 31 it definitely seems flawed.
Oviedo on the other hand is a different story, in the same year (2000) that the Indians signed the 19-year old Heredia (nee Carmona), the Pirates signed the 17-year old Oviedo (nee Nunez). Oviedo reached the majors in 2005 as a 22 year old (essentially the same route most high-round, successful high-school picks take), and broke through as a 25 year old. He'll be 29 this season and is still expected to be an effective closer for the Marlins (Assuming he gets a Visa).
There is no simple answer to the dilemma. The new CBA will limit the overall spending, but that coupled with the potential international draft could create even more age-issues and tampering. My solution is merely to continue to provide Dominican kids with the opportunity to be seen. The Dominican Summer League is a great place for MLB teams to develop Dominican talent, but what is missing is teams that are unaffiliated.
If you asked a scout how much he'd be willing to sign a 19-year old who as a 26-year old would go 19-7 with a 3.06 ERA in the MLB you'd almost certainly hear first round numbers. After all 19 is the age of a college freshman.
Or how about a 17-year old who by 28 would have 317 MLB Appearances and 92 saves. His value may be a little less, but nonetheless he'd be worth top round money.
But if you told the same scout it was a Dominican kid who no one signed as a 16-year old, and he didn't know the future results you'd hear offers similar to that of a late round college senior.
As such my solution is simply, add two teams to the DSL that are sponsored by the MLB and feature talent that is under 20, but unsigned. Any MLB club can sign the players at anytime for $25,000 (5X greater than the average over 16-year old in the Dominican). What this does is it allows these players to continue to play under the watchful eye of Major League Baseball and helps lessen the burden of falsifying information. Is this solution perfect? No, it is far from it. But what other options are out there? I want to hear your ideas.
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