Arizona Fall League 2012

So it’s November, much of America has snow at this point, yet in the great state of Arizona, the Fall League rolls into its final week of the season. I spent the last week taking in games and saw all six of the leagues teams. This article highlights some of the players that impressed me and disappointed me during the Fall League. For those new to my work, I tend to focus on observations. I don’t try to become a “scout” behind the computer screen. Nothing frustrates me more than reading articles by untrained individuals who make absurd claims without any basis, especially when they are statistically based. The current leader in batting and OBP in the Fall League is a guy who played in the Midwest (Low-A) League last year. The leading base-stealer isn’t Billy Hamilton. These are just small examples, but statistics in the Arizona Fall League aren’t quite as relevant as many people believe. They are still valid, but they aren’t a make or break stat for many evaluators. The following observations are based on what I witnessed, what I saw and what was discussed among evaluators. For the sake of privacy and respect for the industry, none of the gentlemen I spoke with will be identified.

With that said, let us begin. I’ve narrowed my notes and observations down to 33 players to cover in this piece. I will also put the organization they are from in parentheses next to their names. If you have any specific questions about any player in the AFL I will do my best to answer them. I didn’t see every player, but at one point or another have seen around 80% of the league now. Finally, as a disclaimer, I sincerely hope all of these guys become Major Leaguers. No matter what I may say or feel about certain prospects, there is no denying that these guys are the best in the world and I wish all of them nothing but the best.

Let’s start with a guy who immediately made me say WOW. George Springer (Astros). A first rounder last year, Springer stood out in 2012 in the California League. He has ridiculous bat speed and uses it to generate plus-power. Pair that with easy 65 speed and Springer is a very intriguing package. I personally witnessed him hit two of the furthest homeruns they have ever seen at Salt River Fields. Springer stands out because of the potential to be a solid outfielder, a plus baserunner and hit above .300. He took a couple interesting routes in Centerfield, but his speed and knowledge allow him to correct for those. He was rated as the Best Outfielder in the California League and long-term he should stick in Center. He put up four extremely quality at-bats in the game I watched, and drew two walks and jacked two homeruns.  He struggled in a short-stint in AA and his strikeout numbers could slow his ascent, but he just turned 23 at the end of the season and should arrive in Houston for good at some point in 2013.

Christian Yelich (Marlins) is a guy I was thrilled to actually see play. I caught his FSL team three times this season but he didn’t play in any of those games. A former Major League Hitting Coordinator couldn’t stop raving about Yelich and it was very obvious why. Yelich produces loud at-bats and makes really solid contact. He isn’t a true power-threat but he sprays the ball well to the gaps and should be able to produce 13-18 homers a season. He is an above-average runner and uses his instincts to take advantage of opposing teams. The only major question mark is if he is a Centerfielder or a Leftfielder. I didn’t get a good look at his arm, but most peg it as slightly below average. He is really fun to watch and you can see why the Marlins think they have a future #3 hitter on their hands.

Changing pace entirely, here is an arm I think has the potential to be a solid bullpen arm in the Majors, Clay Schrader (Orioles). Schrader has an interesting body, standing 5’11” and weighing 200 pounds, but he doesn’t really look out-of-shape. He has struggled with walks throughout his career, 6.91 BB/9, but misses a lot of bats, 12.18 K/9. And keeps the ball in the ballpark (3 HR in 116 career innings). He sits 92-94 with his fastball, but the pitch that generates the strikeouts is his slider, which comes in at 82-85 and has late sharp break. In fact it was rated the best slider in the Orioles system in 2012. In the game I saw he also featured a plus curveball that sat between 80-83. In fact he primarily threw the curve in this outing. He also throws a change-up at 84-85. This is a pure reach, but I think that he will make a good 7^th inning guy in a couple years. I think he’ll open 2013 in Bowie, but if he can refine his command, he’ll be in Norfolk by the middle of the year. Just to throw a name out, his batterymate, Brian Ward (Orioles) shows the potential to be a no-bat, all defense MLB backup. The undrafted Ward has a strong arm (despite a bizarre motion) and gets natural tail on his throws from both the pop position and his knees. Defensively some of the scouts felt he was the best catcher in the AFL and was a definite Major League backup.

The Rangers have an embarrassment of riches in the middle infield. Hanser Alberto (Rangers) adds to that. Despite his listed size of 5’11” 175, he is thicker than you’d expect. The ball comes of his bat loudly and he drives it to all fields well. Some of thoughts I heard on the bat were divided between, “he generates loud at-bats over and over again” and the counter of “that is because of his long-swing.” He doesn’t tend to walk but also doesn’t tend to strike out, rather favoring putting the ball in play and making things happen. He just turned 20 during the fall-league and is in a good position to open 2013 as the AA shortstop for the Rangers. In the field he uses his speed to track down balls and has extremely impressive skills in the field. He earns comparisons to Elvis Andrus at a similar age, but those are unfair as they are not as similar as they appear. For one, Alberto is a better fielder now than Andrus was (24 Errors in 100 games at SS as a 19 yr old for Alberto to 32 in 109 game for Andrus as a 19 year old). For another his approach isn’t very refined and long-term I think he is still at least two full seasons away from the Majors. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Texas move him as they have Luis Sardinas, Roughned Odor and Odubel Herrera behind him.

Another team with a wealth of shortstops is the Reds. Long term, I think Didi Gregorius (Reds) is the answer. There have been rumors that they were considering Gregorius, but this would surprise me. Gregorius will be 23 this season and Cozart will be 27. Gregorius is ready for the Majors defensively and I think the bat is coming around. Defensively Gregorius was easily the most impressive player I saw this week. He makes difficult plays look easy and shows off amazing range and cannon for an arm. He may never be a leadoff hitter, but that’s covered for the Reds anyhow, but I do think that Gregorius could be a great 7^th-8^th hitter and I think his bat isn’t as far behind as some believe. Speaking of the Reds leadoff hitter, it will be Billy Hamilton (Reds) and it will be Hamilton for a long time. I finally got a chance to see Hamilton in person and I was not disappointed. Though he only got credited for one stolen base, he scored twice during 1^st and 3^rd plays that would make you think you were watching little league. His speed also allows him to make great plays in Centerfield. While his arm may limit his throwing strength his speed will allow him to make plays you wouldn’t expect him to make. Speaking of speed, one scout (a former GM) said that he clocked him at 3.3 on a bunt and that it was easily the fastest speed he has ever seen. The havoc he creates on the bases clearly irritates pitchers and catchers and the game of cat and mouse is extremely entertaining.

When you have a pitcher with the systems best changeup and slider you’d think you have a future top of the rotation guy. When that same pitcher has had a couple major injury concerns including Tommy John Surgery, you start to worry. But thus far, despite a limited workload in 2012, Kyle Gibson (Twins) has looked strong and has regained strength, and velocity. Gibson is a big guy, standing 6’6” with a good weight (210).  In the past he sat 89-91, but in the outing I saw him he was sitting 93-94 with the fastball. He also flashes a deceptive changeup and a big wipeout slider that sits 85-86. I think Gibson could be the Twins #5 starter this season with the potential to be a solid #3 if he stays healthy. He has relatively good control and with the additional speed on his fastball, should generate a large amount of strikeouts.

On the opposite side of the prospect spectrum is a pitcher who has drawn very little in terms of praise and comments, but might start popping up on radars in 2013. The Royals Justin Marks (Royals) is that guy. He is a lefty who doesn’t have flashy stuff but he gets things done. His fastball clocks at 91-93 but it was commented and noticed that it sounds and looks much harder than that. He also features a curve, slider and change-up all that rate at around average. And while none of his pitches project as Plus-Plus, he has four pitches that work and he is left-handed. In a Royals system that has some solid arms, Marks will go under-the-radar, but I think he is a solid #5 starter option.

Fun trivia question for you, can you think of any player who over his first three years professionally has drawn more than double the amount of walks (131) as strikeouts (62). Mike O’Neill (Cardinals) has and will continue to do so. O’Neill is the dream leadoff hitter, though his utter lack of power may limit him to more 8^th hitter duty as he progresses. He isn’t really seen as a prospect due to his age (24 in 2012 and in the Florida State League) but he should make the Majors eventually and anytime a 31^st rounder makes the Majors that is seen as a major plus. For his career his OBP is .443 and his SLG is .429 (one career HR), but he puts the ball in play and tends to get hits. He led the FSL in batting average this season and walked 70 times to only 24 strikeouts. I only saw him at the plate, so I cannot make any guesses on his fielding prowess.

Another interesting “non-prospect” due to his age is Chia-Jen Lo (Astros). Lo is  chunky right-hander who is coming off a couple of elbow injuries (red flags) and will be 27 as next year opens. That said, I think he could be a good bullpen arm for the Astros this coming season. Lo’s fastball ranges from 88-96 but typically sits around 92-93. He throws a tight slider (due to his ¾ arm slot this may actually be more of a short-break curve/slurve) at 84-85 that appears to be a strong strikeout offering. He has a change-up and it plays up due to his other offerings.

What do you get when you take a great outfielder with a great arm and a natural athlete and combine them? Jake Marisnick (Blue Jays). Marisnick has great range and a very strong arm. He also displays the potential to have above-average power though currently it is more pop than power. Managers and scouts question if his bat will ever be more than average and it has been noted that he struggles against inside pitches and breaking balls. I didn’t see that in my eight plate appearance sample, but I did see a hitter who jumped on the first opportunity he saw. He went 5-8 but only saw 3 pitches per at-bat and didn’t tend to work counts. He doesn’t strikeout excessively, but he does get beat by above-average pitching. That said: he is a smart guy and a great athlete. He’ll open 2013 in AA again and will likely do much better.

One player I’ve seen a bunch this season is Nick Franklin (Mariners) and he is a great example of sometimes you have to trust evaluators and the numbers. Franklin has never enthralled me and quite frankly I am still not sure he’ll be a solid Major League regular. I tend to think he profiles more as a backup middle infielder who can play an average short-stop and an above-average second base. I don’t think the power he displayed in 2010 as a 19 year old is his true power. I think he is more of a 10-13 homerun type guy who has doubles power. In my sample of him he has some movements in the infield, though the range isn’t fantastic. He is reliable and should be a good bench piece for the Mariners. That said, he’ll be 22 next season and could truly breakout and become a really strong Major League regular. He is just one player that I am not sure where to peg him yet.

A guy whose debut has been slowed by injuries but will likely still shine is Anthony Rendon (Nationals). For now, Rendon is blocked by Ryan Zimmerman but the fact of the matter is Rendon is a Major League caliber 3B. Rendon shows great discipline and takes the pitch where it is meant to go. His bat has the potential to be explosive and the ball takes off. He generates great bat-speed and despite his stature plays like a well-built machine. I suspect he’ll get a full-season of Minor League ball in AA and AAA in 2013 but I think he’ll be a fixture in the Nationals lineup come 2014. His bat alone is enough to make him a good Major Leaguer but add that to his defensive skills and plate recognition and you have a very solid player.

With the Diamondbacks being the local team many of their diehard fans show up to watch them play. They sent a strong class on paper, but I wasn’t that impressed by a couple of their guys. That said, I think Chase Anderson (Diamondbacks) has the potential to be a solid back-end of the rotation arm for the D-backs. Anderson sits 92-93 with his fastball and has a big and loopy curveball. While the curve is a good pitch, evaluators are afraid that the big, loopy break will be a tip off to hitters and it’ll be hit hard at higher levels.

One of the youngest players in the league was also one of the biggest surprises. Catcher Alex Monsalve (Indians) really impressed me with his bat and his approach at the plate. He is only 20, and while for his career is a .257 hitter, Monsalve is more than holding his own against advanced competition. He may not appear on many top prospect lists, but I think he may be a slow-developing play for the Indians. Especially with catchers, you are never sure what you are going to get. In my small sample size, Monsalve put together four quality at-bats and was above-average behind the plate.

Last but certainly not least among the standouts, is one Rymer Liriano (Padres). Liriano is built like a linebacker, but he is fleet of foot and produces rockets with his bat. Defensively Liriano has a very strong arm and uses it effectively. He is not particularly fast, but he is very aware and takes bases well (152 SB in his career, 492 games).  I think he is more likely to land in RF than CF but he is currently playing both and that may continue throughout his career. He is not quite there yet, but he shows signs of being a very solid future MLBer. He is still developing physically and while that may hamper his speed, it will likely boost his power, which may be an ok compromise.

That covers the “players that stood out to me” so now what about the names that “didn’t stand out.”

Let’s start with a part of Heath Bell/Chris Young trade, Yordy Cabrera (Marlins), watching him at 3B was really humorous, he looked lost, made a ton of miscues and overall looked really bad. Then I found out he was a shortstop until he was traded. That made me laugh even harder. I see that he has the arm, but his body is thick and he is not very fluid with his movement. Making matters worth, the bat is pretty far behind and at 22 I think you’ll be see him repeat high-A. Long-term I think he is a first-basemen defensively and without the bat, I don’t see him as a prospect. Sorry Marlins fans.

One of the players I was most excited to see, left him me very disappointed. Kent Matthes (Rockies) caught my eye while I was studying the Rockies system. He has great power, but that is very deceiving. The positives are that he doesn’t really strike out a ton for a power-hitter, the negatives are that I he’ll be 26 next season, he hit .214 in AA and he doesn’t walk. Oh yeah, and he isn’t exactly a good outfielder. His arm struggles and he looks a bit lost (again small sample size). For a bigger guy he does have above-average speed and that may help him transform his game. The worst think I noticed was that his bat looks slow (he has played many more games this year than at any other time in his career, but that is barely over 100) and he drops his hands before swinging (something that was confirmed by evaluators around me). I didn’t get to see the power in person but I am sure it is there, I just don’t think the package needed to surround it is.

Rays fans go ahead and log-off now, I’m about to talk about two of your favorite hitters. Tim Beckham and Hak-Ju Lee (Rays).  Let’s start with Beckham. The biggest reason he appears here is because he was the #1 overall pick. Simply put, I struggle to see him as a first-round talent. Beckham has a great arm and that will help him because his bat isn’t impressive. I read that he has great bat-speed and raw power, but I really don’t see it. In 500 games he has 30 homeruns… and 107 doubles. Most raw power guys are at least capable of doubling. I think he is definitely a second-basemen only but that isn’t a bad thing necessarily. Hak-Ju Lee on the other hand is a great fielder, he displays awesome range and a great first-step but I am not sold on his arm. He made a couple of great stops but couldn’t get the throw to first to convert the out. That said, he is a great fielder and will keep balls on the infield. He has great speed and is a very good baserunner, so why does he appear here? Probably because I had unreal expectations for him. I was hoping to see a future all-star SS with plus-plus skills, but instead saw a guy who I think will be a decent hitter but I struggle to see him as anything more than a bottom of the order batter with plus defense. Kind of like Brendan Ryan. In fact I think that’s a fair comparison.

One thing that always chaps my hide is a player who doesn’t hustle. Maybe it was just a bad day, but Matt Davidson (D-Backs) takes the cake on this one. He has great power (yes), but not running out groundballs pisses me off, especially in a prospect league. Davidson did this twice in one game and as such landed on my didn’t stand out list.

One player I’ve always been high on but I’d never seen in person is Gary Brown (Giants), I finally saw him in person and I see where some of the complaints come from. Brown is a great fielder, and makes great reads in centerfield. That is a major plus in my book. But his funky hitting mechanics look really bad. I’m all for creativity as long as it works, but I question if Brown’s are going to work at the higher levels. He had an up and down year in Richmond and I’m just not as sold as I was on Brown.

When the Braves signed Edward Salcedo (Braves) they hoped they had a Hanley Ramirez on their hands. While he is listed as 6’3”, 195, Salcedo looks overweight. And that’s not a good thing. At third base, he shows off a very strong arm, but also makes mental mistakes that just aren’t ok. He made 42 errors this season, which is alarming, but I think third base is the only spot he can stick long-term. There is a chance he moves to the corner outfield spots, but as of now I struggle to see his bat fitting at the major league level.

Lastly, and most disappointing to me was Nick Castellanos (Tigers). Castellanos is tall, but he looks like a rail, so I am hoping he will fill out some more. And while I read reports he was the best batting prospect in both the Florida State League and the Eastern League, I am not sold. He was very late on a number of pitches in the game I saw him and was being over-powered by pitchers who shouldn’t have over-powered him. He is a definite corner outfielder to me and he has been playing LF for the Solar Sox this fall. Scouts love to dream on power, but I just don’t see him developing into a major power threat. I think he has the potential to be a 10-15 homerun guy, but I just don’t see him as a future home-run derby competitor. I am still convinced he’ll be a very good player, but I am less bullish on him now.

The last two categories are guys that are still very raw and as such anything can happen, and names that were highly spoken of but I didn’t see in person, or didn’t take notes on.

First we have the raw guys, consisting of three infielders and three pitchers. Former Texas State football recruit Jason Martinson (Nationals) is one of those personal favorites. I think Martinson will develop into a very good player. He has good speed and has been very effective on the base paths, but his bat hasn’t come along that quickly. That said, he has power, (22 homers this season) and if the bat picks up he could be a 20-homer .250-.260 threat. Which paired with his speed makes him a 20-20 type player. Will that happen? It is a reach. That is why this raw shortstop makes the list.

Astros prospects Jio Mier and Jarred Cosart (Astros) are the next two on this list. Mier had some injuries this season and was limited to 51 games. He is another one of those guys who was always a SS and is trying 3B for the first time this fall. Mier has a loud swing and I think it’ll produce nicely, but I am not sure 3B is where he fits. Long term, he probably will grow into 3B and that is probably a good fit for him, but for now due to the injury and the new position, Mier is a bit of a mystery. As for Cosart, there is the good, the fastball that sits 96-98 and touched 100. And there is the bad, the inconsistent mechanics and the violent head movement that leads to the ball going all over the place. He has a great fastball in terms of velocity and his curveball is raved about (though he wasn’t getting it over for strikes in this outing). He has four pitches and long-term I think will be a starter. If he cleans up the mechanics and becomes more consistent he may soar. If he doesn’t he may flop. That said, with his velocity and two solid pitches, if he fails as a starter, he still has a shot as a back of the bullpen arm.

My favorite name in baseball Gift Ngoepe (Pirates) is an incredibly talented shortstop, but I saw him at 2B and he looked plenty comfortable there too. That said, the bat and the instincts are still very raw. He has good speed, but doesn’t utilize it well. He has some power, but just tapped it this season. And he swings and misses way too much. I think the skills in the middle infield will keep him around, but the raw bat and the raw baseball IQ may inhibit his growth. That said, I hope he succeeds! Another Pirates prospect, Vic Black (Pirates), also was incredibly disappointing. Black’s going to be Rule V eligible this season but I struggle to believe anyone will take him. He has good velocity with the fastball, 94-96, but he was pounded and has been hit hard all fall. He is also wild and when he does get it over the plate it tends to be right down the heart. His young catcher, Monsalve, was diving all over the place just to keep the balls remotely close to the batters box.

Lastly, Santos Rodriguez (White Sox) is a lefty with a 94-97 MPH fastball. That fact alone will get him some looks, and with the White Sox nearly all rookie bullpen, I wouldn’t be surprised if that look comes next season. Rodriguez is on the raw list because he just looks underdeveloped (6’5’’ 180, much like Alexi Ogando). He throw a slider at 79-82 MPH and a changeup at 84-86 but is wild with them. He also struggles to repeat his delivery and has an extremely wild follow-through. If he can harness these things, I think Rodriguez is a future bullpen arm with nasty left-handed stuff.

Finally, lets touch on five names that evaluators were raving about.

Starting with two Marlins prospects. Jake Realmuto and Kyle Jensen (Marlins), one evaluator who has experience as a Major League Hitting Coach, said that Jensen and Realmuto are both talents that are undervalued. Realmuto he says has a chance to be really special and Jensen displays a great approach and seems to be really willing to learn.

How about two Padres guys now. Cory Spangenberg and Nate Freiman (Padres). One evaluator said if he had to build a system around a player in the AFL currently he said it would be Spangenberg (that is high praise). Nate Freiman gets the scouts excited just based on his size and great power stroke.

To close, here is one prospect who isn’t in the AFL, but nonetheless scouts spent an inning discussing, Jorge Alfaro (Rangers). Alfaro is a catcher with great power and 70 speed. One evaluator said that he felt Alfaro compared well to Miguel Olivo at the same age and as such that is good praise. Another said he may well be the best running catcher in baseball currently.