Realization 1: The Pirates are 8th best team in the NL.
Coming into today, August 15th, there are 46 Pirates games remaining. As of this writing they sit 4th overall in the National League... But 5th, 6th, and 7th are all within one game of them. 5th. 7th Place is where I see them finishing up, and while it'll be close, I cannot envision this years Pirates club as a playoff team.
As you know, I am a huge stat geek, but I tend to balance my statistical preference with an eye towards reality. In other words, just because stats say so and so is awful, I'm not one to jump right into it. That said, when looking through Baseball Prospectus' wonderful Adjusted Standings tool (check it out here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/) I came to realize the Pirates are really not that good. Good yes, playoff bound, no.
Taking a look at the Adjusted Standings the Pirates are third in the NL Central in all three major adjusted standing categories (accounting for things like equivalent runs and averages throughout a season). In fact using the 3rd Order Win Percentage, which Baseball Prospectus describes as: "A team's projected winning percentage, based on underlying statistics and adjusted for quality of opponents." the Pirates aren't even a .500 team. Basing things off the 1st Order Win Percentage which takes into account the how many times a team should have won based on their run differential the Pirates should be 60-56 (they are actually 64-52). That record would leave them in eighth overall based on 1st Order win percentage. Using 3rd Order Win Percentage, the Pirates would be sitting in eighth as well, and only a game out of ninth. Making things even worse, they are only a game better than the Phillies according to 3rd order. Philadelphia is 11 games under 500.
Realization 2: The everyday lineup for the Pirates has a critical flaw, production.
The Pirates prior to the trading deadline were getting the worst production out of the RF position of any team in baseball. They did a nice job acquiring some pieces to temporarily stop the bleeding, but as with any short-term fix within a long-term plan...temporary won't win the pennant.
But that is only the tip of the iceberg. The Pirates as a team are hitting .246/.302/.406, only the Cubs and Mariners are worse as a whole... To make things even worse, let's take Andrew McCutchen out of the equation...
TRUE: .246/.302/.406
W/O CUTCH: .232/.283/.382
.232/.283/.382 (Note for the purpose of this OBP was quick-computed, and therefore may vary from the true total). Those totals would put them in 29th in Average, 30th in OBP, and 23rd in Slugging. Overall it makes them the worst offense.
Things get scary after Neil Walker and Garrett Jones, the other 5 primary players in that line-up, aren't capable of carrying the team anywhere. Starling Marte is one of my favorite prospects, but he isn't Major League ready. 20 Ks in his first 80 ABs, 3 walks. He's got the power, but the rest of the skills aren't quite there. In the future, I think he'll be a good player with a high K% and low OBP. For most teams this kind of player projects as a 7-8 hitter. His speed might help him out, but he is currently leading off for the Pirates, and not reaching base nearly enough...
I'm hoping Travis Snider is the real deal, I've always been high on him and I think he is the perfect Lefty Corner Outfielder for the Pirates, so there is a plus. Furthermore, I think his platoon-mate, Gaby Sanchez will perform much better now that he is out of his hometown, Miami.
Realization 3: A good bullpen is only as good as its weakest link
The Pirates bullpen has been a great story this year, but lets just say there are some scary peripherals hiding when you look deeper. Take for example this nugget, Tony Watson is the only lefty in bullpen, and lefties are hitting .242 against him.
Jason Grilli has been great this season, but what gives, prior to this year Grilli had one great year, 2008 with the Rockies and then a solid end to 2011 with the Pirates. The key this year has been an unreal, and unsustainable K rate (14.03) compared to his career MLB Average (7.61) and MiLB Average (6.71). As the K-rate fall the contact rate will grow this becomes problematic because of the fact that despite his success he is still allowing 1.06 HR per 9. In his dominant year in Colorado (COORS FIELD PEOPLE) he allowed .15 per 9. He isn't getting many ground balls, and 13.2% of his fly balls are leaving the yard. So if the K-rate drops the ERA and the HRs will grow. One explanation for his success is the fact that he is throwing harder than he ever has before and his slider is slower than before. For his career Grilli sat around 92.5 with the fastball and 84.5 with the slider. This season he is averaging 93.8 with the fastball and 82.6 with the slider. An 11 MPH drop. Furthermore those are the only two pitches he is throwing after previously throwing a Curveball and a Change-up.
Jared Hughes another bright bullpen arm is a rookie and while he has been successful this season, he risks overexposure and must adapt. This is witnessed currently as he has been rocked in August. Allowing 6 ER (the same amount he allowed in April/May and one more than he allowed in June/July). He's been good, but recently it has been bad, and I suspect that is just the season and the action wearing him down.
So right there we have three critical flaws in the bullpen from three pitchers that have pitched in 47, 47, and 46 games respectively (the top 3 on the team, along with Hanrahan at 47 as well).
It gets uglier as we go deeper into the Pen, Juan Cruz somehow has a below 3 ERA despite having a 1.64 WHIP. To put that WHIP into perspective, the other 5 pitchers with an identical WHIP have the following ERAs: 7.36, 6.44, 8.18, 6.14, 8.44. Yup, in other words Cruz has been really damn lucky.
So what is the solution for the bullpen? Risk-taking. As with the success Jared Hughes had earlier this year and Jason Grilli is having both are new looks to opponents. Hughes is a rookie who hadn't been overexposed at the Major League level, he succeeded early and has faltered late. Grilli has become a totally different pitcher than he was in the past and has had season-long success. In order to help these guys and add a critical left-handed arm to the bullpen the Pirates need to make two moves.
First promote Justin Wilson. Wilson is a starting pitcher, and is considered the closest to the majors of the Pirates young arms (he turns 25 this month so I don't consider him a high-level prospect), but Wilson is left-handed, has been stretched out all season and has dominated Triple-A Lefties. In 39 innings vs lefties this season Wilson has allowed 17 hits, 26 walks and struck out 35. They are hitting .131 against him. In other words, perfect for the one out, focus on just the lefty role. Adding him to the roster is going to happen this year, but in needs to happen this week. He is already on the 40-man so it'll be a straight up transaction.
Secondly, purchase the contract of Tim Wood. Wood is a name familiar to Pirates fans and has plenty of Major League Experience, 57 games. He was recently named the Best Reliever in the International League and has been extremely effective against AAA hitters. Honestly, he is a better solution than Juan Cruz. Yes he has struggled in the Majors before, but the simple fact is the bullpen needs a quick make-over to protect the strong back-end.
Overall Analysis:
The Pirates are one of the best stories of the season. Andrew McCutchen has been so critical to the team that without him this team is worthless. He would be my likely vote for MVP because he truly embodies the Most Valuable Player to his team. Unfortunately the offense outside of him is anemic and needs a boost. That just won't happen this season. There is an outside chance that the platoon of Snider and Sanchez helps them win a couple games and stay in the race through September but this is still the 8th best team in the National League. The rotation has been solid all year and I suspect will continue to give the team a good 6 innings night in and night out, the bullpen however is WAY over-performing and this will be the undoing of the team. There is a chance they can add the bullpen pieces needed to hold onto a couple games, but realistically I think the bullpen's above to regress to the mean and perform like what they are, an average bullpen.
I see them finishing above .500 (YAY!!!) and Clint Hurdle winning Manager of the Year. I also see A.J Burnett getting a shot at comeback player of the year. Sadly though, the Pirates will be missing the playoffs by 4-5 games. I honestly hope I am wrong, but I just don't see it happening.
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