Monday, August 8, 2011

The Undrafted Player Paradigm

Question: Why is a player who is hitting .472/.562/.764 in 23 games still in Complex Rookie ball. Answer: He was undrafted. In this case, 23 year old Jimmy Swift of the Rangers organization. Yes, he was a 5-yr senior sign, yes, he is much older than the league average, but still... He is hitting nearly .500. Now as a four-year player at Creighton, Swift was never the star. In fact in his senior year he hit only .274/.350/.371. Still, i'm going way outside the box with this thought. In my opinion, if the player is undrafted, he is worth the risk to move up and play at a higher, more challenging level.

I feel this way because simply put you have nothing to lose. Swift for example is a middle infielder. And while he may not be a star, he has nothing left to prove in Surprise. Why not challenge him, see if there is any potential in there. Realistically he can be replaced next season if nothing appears positive. That said, if something does click, then perhaps you have a solid investment on your hands.

For example, assigning him to Myrtle Beach where he would back up Santiago Chirino and Leury Garcia (he of 32 errors). The current backups for these two are Andres James (one month older than Swift) and Jonathan Roof (13 months younger than Swift). Roof was promoted last month to back up Garcia, after hitting .265/.299/.365 for Low-A Hickory, not exactly awe-inspiring numbers. Especially once we take into consideration the fact that last season (as a rookie) he hit .256/.333/.288 for the same Hickory club. So now a month into his stay in Myrtle Beach, Roof is doing two things: Not playing frequently, and not playing well when he does play. Both of which damage his growth potential. Considering he was an 8th rounder last year as a Junior out of Michigan State, the Rangers have a lot more invested in him than they do Swift, and as such shouldn't be wasting his chance to grow. With Swift, the team took a flyer on him out of college and he is shining. If you place him in Myrtle Beach, even if he fails, at least you aren't costing yourself a large chunk of change. If he succeeds, you are in fact boosting his stock and making value on an undrafted player. Meanwhile, Jonathan Roof (the 8th rounder) has spent a month in Myrtle Beach, where he has played in 10 games, and had 36 at-bats, racking up a solid...four hits. 

As for Andres James, the other backup infielder in Myrtle, he is repeating the high-A level, and isn't doing it well. He has appeared in 61 games, hitting a pathetic .221 and walking only 4 times in 195 at-bats. For someone the same age as Swift (in fact older), James is doing nothing that Swift couldn't do himself. In fact, in his career James has done nothing to inspire confidence in his bat. He has never once had an OBP over .300... at any level. His career high in walks in 11. And that season he hit .199. 

So why are James and Roof playing in Myrtle Beach, while Jimmy Swift toils away in 110 degree Arizona heat? Simple, the Rangers, like many organizations hate to see wasted investments. Yet in reality they need to see this as a two-way investment. They've given six seasons to Andres James to prove himself in those six seasons he has put up the following slash line .235/.258/.277. He has a whopping 39 walks to 287 strike outs. And a career fielding % coming in at .930. He'll be a free agent at the end of the season so why not cut your losses now and give Jimmy Swift a month to show he has value. As for Jonathan Roof, he is still young (22) and has spent his entire career (save a week) in full season ball. He has a ton of value left, but currently is being short-changed development time by playing maybe once a series in Myrtle Beach. Send him back to Hickory and let him play and develop, as well as be prepared for next season.

In the end, it is all about perceived value. In my mind, Major League organizations short-change a lot of players with skill based on the fact that they were undrafted, or had be released, or were found in the independent leagues. The fact of the matter is, they need to treat these kind of players like penny stocks. Buy them low, and give them a chance to play/shine, if they succeed you've made a huge profit, if not you lose very little. 

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