Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

I read a blog post recently that got me thinking...


"Is a leadoff walk worse than a leadoff single? Nope. They're the same. Leadoff singles score 38 percent of the time, same as leadoff walks. The average number of runs are the same too, .902 runs per inning after a leadoff single."


In essence, I understand what the author is saying, but I feel like he is missing the KEY component. That component is the fact that the batter didn't have to swing the bat to reach base. Meanwhile in order to get a single you must first put the ball in play. Which statistics show happens between 29-30% of the time (BABIP). 


Maybe I am way off track, but the way I see it, a walk is much more deadly than a leadoff single, because simply, there is nothing the hitter has to do to influence it. Whereas the single must actually be contacted by the hitter.


Thoughts?