So with that, let's look at some of the stars and some of the flops of the first-half of the Pioneer League season. In doing so, keep in mind, the statistics from the Rookie-level are rarely the perfect indication of future skills, but some of the metrics are an indication of ability.
The first half (38 games) was taken easily in Montana by the Great Falls Voyagers (White Sox) and taken in the final game down south by the Ogden Raptors (Dodgers). That said teams like Orem (Angels) came on strong late (and they have made the playoffs 11 straight seasons) and teams like Idaho Falls (Royals) overachieved despite having to share prospects with two other rookie level affiliates.
So who performed at the top of the leagues and the bottom in some of these metrics?
To find "Qualifiers" I took only hitters who have played in at least half of their teams games (19).
The leagues worst strikeout victims are as follows:
Strikeout Percentage
Tyler Williams 53.8%
Max White 42.5%
Justin Bianco 40.8%
Raul Mondesi Jr. 36.8%
Julian Yan 36.4%
Tyler Linton 36.3%
Ryan Garvey 35.2%
T-H Nam 33.0%
Gabriel Rosa 32.1%
Of these players seven of the nine are identified as true prospects, and the other two (Garvey and Williams) have some Major League Bloodlines. Tyler Williams is White Sox GM Kenny Williams son, simply put he has absolutely no business taking a roster spot from anyone. Counting last season Williams has had184 professional at-bats all at the rookie league level and struck out in 98 of them. 53.2%. Former NL MVP Steve Garvey's son Ryan is another interesting case. Ryan was mid-teens pick last season but didn't sign and enrolled at USC, he withdrew from USC and went the JuCo route, winding up drafted around the 32nd round this year. Signed and began his professional career. Some things have been positive for Garvey, he has hit 5 homeruns (league lead is 9), and started off hot with the bat, but as July progressed the Ks did as well, 35.2% is way too high to be successful, but I wouldn't write him off yet due to the bloodlines.
As for the prospects in this group the most disappointing thus far are easily Max White, and Gabriel Rosa. Rosa was the Reds #20 prospect coming into the season and did a decent job of not striking out a ton in his first pro exposure last summer, but the second rounder has regressed as the talent level stepped up. Most disappointing is the fact that he has had 76 ABs and struck out in 25 of them...and only walked once. OUCH. He has 14 total hits. Last year in 108 ABs Rosa walked 8 times to 28 strike outs. I'd take that any day over what he is putting up this season.
As for Max White, buyer beware, White was the Rockies 2nd rounder this year and he got off to a decent start in June going 7 for 25 with 5 walks and 9 strikeouts. Not great but not awful... July on the other hand... UGLY at the end of the first half White had gone 4 for 48 in July with 9 walks and 22 strikeouts... Put those together and you get an ugly picture.
The last two guys I wanted to expand upon in this section are Justin Bianco and Tyler Linton, both D-Backs OFers. And both struggling. Linton was the D-Backs #22 prospect coming into the season, but his THIRD trip to the Pioneer League hasn't changed much, in fact his average is down (and this is an extremely hitter-friendly league). Linton was an incredibly talented athlete in North Carolina and was bought out of a football scholarship to UNC to play baseball. While he has the speed and the raw-power he has yet to convert it to a game situation. The whiff rate is just far too high still to consider him a top-tier prospect and the fielding is almost comical to watch at times. That said, Linton does rank in the top ten of extra base hits, 46% of his hits have been for extra bases, so the power is seen when he makes contact. As for Bianco, well he has now had nearly 300 at-bats in the Pioneer League and managed 60 hits and 121 strikeouts... Ok... Ouch.
How about some positives now?
I took all of the measurable metrics (things like BB%, K%, K/BB, BABIP, etc...) and created a formula to determine which players were the sharpest overall at the level. In some cases this is because the player is more talented than the league, or in other cases the player is much younger than the league and is still developing. Needless to say, the closer to the number one (1) the better. The highest possible score was 80, and in this case that is not a good thing.
This number i've deemed the Average Rating of Player Productivity (ARPP).
The leaders (the lower the number the better the results)
Joel Capote (12.4)
Seth Meijas-Brean (14.2)
Kyle Robinson (20.2)
Jonathan Walsh (23)
Alfredo Rodriguez (23.4)
Jesse Winker (24.6)
Adam Heisler (26)
Rudy Flores (26.4)
David Dahl (26.6)
Micah Johnson (26.6)
Beau Amaral (26.6)
Of the top 11, 9 of the players were college juniors or seniors when drafted. Only David Dahl and Jesse Winker, both first rounders this season were not. As such it should come as no surprise that some of these guys lead the way in terms of their ability compared to their peers at the Pioneer League level. Furthermore the results of players like Winker and Dahl are even more impressive when you consider that they are nearly three years younger than the leagues average age. In fact in my first half top ten prospects both Dahl and Winker are in the top five (the final list i'll publish in September once I've seen every team). Of those nine college players the majority of them are from "BCS" baseball schools, Meijas-Brean (Arizona), Robinson (Arkansas), Walsh (Texas), Rodriguez (Maryland), Johnson (Indiana) and Amaral (UCLA). Capote (Started his career at Miami-Dade JC, then transferred to FIU before finishing at St. Thomas), Heisler (South Alabama) and Flores (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi) were all senior-signs. Of the three, Capote has been the most impressive, in fact I'm tempted to include Capote on my top prospects list. He runs well, he gets on-base, he walks more than he strikes out and he is an impressive fielder. He started the year in the Arizona League and was quickly bumped to Orem (Angels) where he has been the lead-off hitter, setting the table for two of the leagues top three home-run hitters (Wade Hinkle and Michael Snyder) and then Jonathan Walsh (on this list).
And the laggards (The higher the number the worse the results)
Tyler Williams (69.2)
Raul Mondesi Jr. (67.4)
Gabriel Rosa (64.4)
Kevin Thompson (62.4)
Justin Bianco (61.4)
Tyler Linton (60.2)
Julian Yan (59.8)
Elier Hernandez (59)
Jon Matthews (58.4)
Ben Waldrip (56.2)
As for this grouping... Tyler Williams we've touched on. Raul Mondesi Jr, beside being Raul's son is most famous for failing to touch home after hitting what should have been a game-tying homer. Gabriel Rosa we've talked about, same with Linton and Bianco. Kevin Thompson is a roster-filler for Ogden (he even pitched in a game). That leaves Ben Waldrip (a towering first-basemen), Jon Matthews (an OF for Billings that just cannot get playing time on a team that features Amaral, Winker and Jeff Gelalich as it's traditional OF. Elier Hernandez (last seasons top Dominican prospect according to many), and Julian Yan (another former highly-ranked J2 signing). Of those three Hernandez has been the most disappointing.
Elier Hernandez (Royals): Playing on Idaho Falls along with Mondesi's younger brother Adalberto, Elier has yet to breakout (though he is only 17, so I am not concerned there) The great John Sickles said that Elier has "excellent raw power" and that may be true but it hasn't been seen yet. In the Pioneer League even weak hitter pop homeruns, and Hernandez has yet to do that. In my mind the bigger disappointment is not the stats (they will come as he grows) but the fact that he is outshone on a daily basis by the 16 (just turned 17) year old Adalberto Mondesi. That said, Hernandez also hasn't shown the speed that was rumored (hasn't even stolen a base), and has been erratic at the plate (35 Ks to 7 BB). He has however showed the plus arm and the plus accuracy in the outfield. If the bat comes around he has the potential to be a pretty solid corner outfielder, and I think the bat is coming! We shall see... The best thing about a 17-year old in the Pioneer League is that he still has 5+ years of development left. These things take time. Julian Yan frustrates me the most on this list. The tools are there, the power is there, but things are missing. In the three games I caught in July featuring Yan he displayed three totally different batting stances and approaches to pitches. He uses a double-tap load mechanism, then his coach yells at him and he goes to a high leg-kick, then with two strike, the lower-body stays perfectly still. It is almost disturbing. He'll be 21 this off-season so he needs to figure it out to have even a remote chance.
That is all for the hitters, and while pitchers in the league are a bit tough to figure out I will say that three of them truly stood out in the first half.
Robert Stephenson (Reds): In my mind he is probably the #2 prospect in the Reds entire system, and he has moved up to Dayton, so he will be tested even more. Stephenson features a Mid-High 90s fastball and a power 12-6 curve-ball to induce really weak contact and many swings and misses. I currently see him as more of a thrower than a pitcher, but he shows great poise, and makes adjustments well. The control is erratic, which leads to the thrower analogy, but that said at the lower-levels he didn't walk many, and struck out a ton. As a high-school first rounder last season, Stephenson has proven his worth early this year. Here we have a rare pitcher that I would consider a potential ace. As with any high-schooler it is extremely difficult to project how the next few years will go, but with his fastball and curveball alone he could be successful. If he manages to add even an average change-up he'll be a #2-#3, and if that can become a plus pitch you've got a starter with overpowering velocity and two plus off-speed pitches. That in my mind gives you an ace potential. That said, buyer beware, Stephenson does display the dreaded inverted W, which more often than not has been leading to pitchers injuring elbows or shoulders.
Sam Selman (Royals): The Vanderbilt product was seen as a top pick coming into the season, but various concerns slowed him down and caused him to fall to round two. He has been healthy thus far in the Pioneer League and dominating. In 32 innings the lefty has struck out 44 and walked only 8. Opponents are hitting a mere .209 against him. His wind-up is a herky-jerky mess (to the point where people openly call him Crazy Legs), and I suspect that has lead to some of his injury problems (but I am not a coach or a doctor) so all I care about in this case are the results. He is incredibly wiry (6'3" 165) and as he fills out (if he fills out) he may add velocity to what is already a 92-94 MPH fastball. Selman features some great velocity for a lefty and has the secondary pitches to succeed. I suspect his absolute ceiling is that of a #2 starter, but that realistically I see him as a #4-#5 starter at his floor. If he adds some muscle and stays healthy he'll move quickly.
Ross Stripling (Dodgers): Texas A&M this season was lucky to have both Ross Stripling and Michael Wacha in the rotation. As Stripling has begun his pro career in the Pioneer League, hitters see why Texas A&M had a dominant regular season. Stripling was senior sign, and needs to move quickly, but he has been dominating the Pioneer League while the Dodgers manage his innings. I suspect you'll see him open next season in AA and that is why I am ranking him here. He features an average fastball and is a major control pitcher, sat right around 8.5 K's per walk in college and is at 11 K's per walk professionally. This is attributed to his curveball which is a major plus pitch. It sits in the mid 70's with good hard break and has the potential to truly get pathetic swings. He also features an average change-up that if it develops gives him three usable pitches. He will be a major leaguer one day, and I suspect that'll be in late 2013, or early 2014. His peak is probably that of a #3 starter but the floor is that of a #5. As such, he's one to watch.
No comments:
Post a Comment