Pioneer League First-Half Prospect Update

Over the past two months, I've seen six of the eight Pioneer League teams 3+ times. I've shot video, compiled reports, and taken a look at the stats of the players. Now you may be wondering why the Pioneer League? Simple, the Pioneer (Rookie) League is the starting point for many guys who will ultimately go on to become Major prospects. Names like Prince Fielder and K-Rod have passed through the league in the past ten years. This year First Rounders like Robert Stephenson, David Dahl and Corey Seager began their professional journey in the Pioneer League. 


So with that, let's look at some of the stars and some of the flops of the first-half of the Pioneer League season. In doing so, keep in mind, the statistics from the Rookie-level are rarely the perfect indication of future skills, but some of the metrics are an indication of ability.


The first half (38 games) was taken easily in Montana by the Great Falls Voyagers (White Sox) and taken in the final game down south by the Ogden Raptors (Dodgers). That said teams like Orem (Angels) came on strong late (and they have made the playoffs 11 straight seasons) and teams like Idaho Falls (Royals) overachieved despite having to share prospects with two other rookie level affiliates.


So who performed at the top of the leagues and the bottom in some of these metrics?


To find "Qualifiers" I took only hitters who have played in at least half of their teams games (19).


The leagues worst strikeout victims are as follows:

Strikeout Percentage

Tyler Williams 53.8%

Max White 42.5%

Justin Bianco 40.8%

Raul Mondesi Jr. 36.8%

Julian Yan 36.4%

Tyler Linton 36.3%

Ryan Garvey 35.2%

T-H Nam 33.0%

Gabriel Rosa 32.1%

Of these players seven of the nine are identified as true prospects, and the other two (Garvey and Williams) have some Major League Bloodlines. Tyler Williams is White Sox GM Kenny Williams son, simply put he has absolutely no business taking a roster spot from anyone. Counting last season Williams has had184 professional at-bats all at the rookie league level and struck out in 98 of them. 53.2%. Former NL MVP Steve Garvey's son Ryan is another interesting case. Ryan was mid-teens pick last season but didn't sign and enrolled at USC, he withdrew from USC and went the JuCo route, winding up drafted around the 32nd round this year. Signed and began his professional career. Some things have been positive for Garvey, he has hit 5 homeruns (league lead is 9), and started off hot with the bat, but as July progressed the Ks did as well, 35.2% is way too high to be successful, but I wouldn't write him off yet due to the bloodlines.

As for the prospects in this group the most disappointing thus far are easily Max White, and Gabriel Rosa. Rosa was the Reds #20 prospect coming into the season and did a decent job of not striking out a ton in his first pro exposure last summer, but the second rounder has regressed as the talent level stepped up. Most disappointing is the fact that he has had 76 ABs and struck out in 25 of them...and only walked once. OUCH. He has 14 total hits. Last year in 108 ABs Rosa walked 8 times to 28 strike outs. I'd take that any day over what he is putting up this season.

As for Max White, buyer beware, White was the Rockies 2nd rounder this year and he got off to a decent start in June going 7 for 25 with 5 walks and 9 strikeouts. Not great but not awful... July on the other hand... UGLY at the end of the first half White had gone 4 for 48 in July with 9 walks and 22 strikeouts... Put those together and you get an ugly picture. 

The last two guys I wanted to expand upon in this section are Justin Bianco and Tyler Linton, both D-Backs OFers. And both struggling. Linton was the D-Backs #22 prospect coming into the season, but his THIRD trip to the Pioneer League hasn't changed much, in fact his average is down (and this is an extremely hitter-friendly league). Linton was an incredibly talented athlete in North Carolina and was bought out of a football scholarship to UNC to play baseball. While he has the speed and the raw-power he has yet to convert it to a game situation. The whiff rate is just far too high still to consider him a top-tier prospect and the fielding is almost comical to watch at times. That said, Linton does rank in the top ten of extra base hits, 46% of his hits have been for extra bases, so the power is seen when he makes contact. As for Bianco, well he has now had nearly 300 at-bats in the Pioneer League and managed 60 hits and 121 strikeouts... Ok... Ouch.

How about some positives now?

I took all of the measurable metrics (things like BB%, K%, K/BB, BABIP, etc...) and created a formula to determine which players were the sharpest overall at the level. In some cases this is because the player is more talented than the league, or in other cases the player is much younger than the league and is still developing. Needless to say, the closer to the number one (1) the better. The highest possible score was 80, and in this case that is not a good thing.

This number i've deemed the Average Rating of Player Productivity (ARPP).

The leaders (the lower the number the better the results)

Joel Capote (12.4)

Seth Meijas-Brean (14.2)

Kyle Robinson (20.2)

Jonathan Walsh (23)

Alfredo Rodriguez (23.4)

Jesse Winker (24.6)

Adam Heisler (26)

Rudy Flores (26.4)

David Dahl (26.6)

Micah Johnson (26.6)

Beau Amaral (26.6)

Of the top 11, 9 of the players were college juniors or seniors when drafted. Only David Dahl and Jesse Winker, both first rounders this season were not. As such it should come as no surprise that some of these guys lead the way in terms of their ability compared to their peers at the Pioneer League level. Furthermore the results of players like Winker and Dahl are even more impressive when you consider that they are nearly three years younger than the leagues average age. In fact in my first half top ten prospects both Dahl and Winker are in the top five (the final list i'll publish in September once I've seen every team). Of those nine college players the majority of them are from "BCS" baseball schools, Meijas-Brean (Arizona), Robinson (Arkansas), Walsh (Texas), Rodriguez (Maryland), Johnson (Indiana) and Amaral (UCLA). Capote (Started his career at Miami-Dade JC, then transferred to FIU before finishing at St. Thomas), Heisler (South Alabama) and Flores (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi) were all senior-signs. Of the three, Capote has been the most impressive, in fact I'm tempted to include Capote on my top prospects list. He runs well, he gets on-base, he walks more than he strikes out and he is an impressive fielder. He started the year in the Arizona League and was quickly bumped to Orem (Angels) where he has been the lead-off hitter, setting the table for two of the leagues top three home-run hitters (Wade Hinkle and Michael Snyder) and then Jonathan Walsh (on this list).

And the laggards (The higher the number the worse the results)

Tyler Williams (69.2)

Raul Mondesi Jr. (67.4)

Gabriel Rosa (64.4)

Kevin Thompson (62.4)

Justin Bianco (61.4)

Tyler Linton (60.2)

Julian Yan (59.8)

Elier Hernandez (59)

Jon Matthews (58.4)

Ben Waldrip (56.2) 

As for this grouping... Tyler Williams we've touched on. Raul Mondesi Jr, beside being Raul's son is most famous for failing to touch home after hitting what should have been a game-tying homer. Gabriel Rosa we've talked about, same with Linton and Bianco. Kevin Thompson is a roster-filler for Ogden (he even pitched in a game). That leaves Ben Waldrip (a towering first-basemen), Jon Matthews (an OF for Billings that just cannot get playing time on a team that features Amaral, Winker and Jeff Gelalich as it's traditional OF. Elier Hernandez (last seasons top Dominican prospect according to many), and Julian Yan (another former highly-ranked J2 signing). Of those three Hernandez has been the most disappointing. 

Elier Hernandez (Royals): Playing on Idaho Falls along with Mondesi's younger brother Adalberto, Elier has yet to breakout (though he is only 17, so I am not concerned there) The great John Sickles said that Elier has "excellent raw power" and that may be true but it hasn't been seen yet. In the Pioneer League even weak hitter pop homeruns, and Hernandez has yet to do that. In my mind the bigger disappointment is not the stats (they will come as he grows) but the fact that he is outshone on a  daily basis by the 16 (just turned 17) year old Adalberto Mondesi. That said, Hernandez also hasn't shown the speed that was rumored (hasn't even stolen a base), and has been erratic at the plate (35 Ks to 7 BB). He has however showed the plus arm and the plus accuracy in the outfield. If the bat comes around he has the potential to be a pretty solid corner outfielder, and I think the bat is coming! We shall see... The best thing about a 17-year old in the Pioneer League is that he still has 5+ years of development left. These things take time. Julian Yan frustrates me the most on this list. The tools are there, the power is there, but things are missing. In the three games I caught in July featuring Yan he displayed three totally different batting stances and approaches to pitches. He uses a double-tap load mechanism, then his coach yells at him and he goes to a high leg-kick, then with two strike, the lower-body stays perfectly still. It is almost disturbing. He'll be 21 this off-season so he needs to figure it out to have even a remote chance.

That is all for the hitters, and while pitchers in the league are a bit tough to figure out I will say that three of them truly stood out in the first half.

Robert Stephenson (Reds): In my mind he is probably the #2 prospect in the Reds entire system, and he has moved up to Dayton, so he will be tested even more. Stephenson features a Mid-High 90s fastball and a power 12-6 curve-ball to induce really weak contact and many swings and misses. I currently see him as more of a thrower than a pitcher, but he shows great poise, and makes adjustments well. The control is erratic, which leads to the thrower analogy, but that said at the lower-levels he didn't walk many, and struck out a ton. As a high-school first rounder last season, Stephenson has proven his worth early this year. Here we have a rare pitcher that I would consider a potential ace. As with any high-schooler it is extremely difficult to project how the next few years will go, but with his fastball and curveball alone he could be successful. If he manages to add even an average change-up he'll be a #2-#3, and if that can become a plus pitch you've got a starter with overpowering velocity and two plus off-speed pitches. That in my mind gives you an ace potential. That said, buyer beware, Stephenson does display the dreaded inverted W, which more often than not has been leading to pitchers injuring elbows or shoulders.

Sam Selman (Royals): The Vanderbilt product was seen as a top pick coming into the season, but various concerns slowed him down and caused him to fall to round two. He has been healthy thus far in the Pioneer League and dominating. In 32 innings the lefty has struck out 44 and walked only 8. Opponents are hitting a mere .209 against him. His wind-up is a herky-jerky mess (to the point where people openly call him Crazy Legs), and I suspect that has lead to some of his injury problems (but I am not a coach or a doctor) so all I care about in this case are the results. He is incredibly wiry (6'3" 165) and as he fills out (if he fills out) he may add velocity to what is already a 92-94 MPH fastball. Selman features some great velocity for a lefty and has the secondary pitches to succeed. I suspect his absolute ceiling is that of a #2 starter, but that realistically I see him as a #4-#5 starter at his floor. If he adds some muscle and stays healthy he'll move quickly.

Ross Stripling (Dodgers): Texas A&M this season was lucky to have both Ross Stripling and Michael Wacha in the rotation. As Stripling has begun his pro career in the Pioneer League, hitters see why Texas A&M had a dominant regular season. Stripling was senior sign, and needs to move quickly, but he has been dominating the Pioneer League while the Dodgers manage his innings. I suspect you'll see him open next season in AA and that is why I am ranking him here. He features an average fastball and is a major control pitcher, sat right around 8.5 K's per walk in college and is at 11 K's per walk professionally. This is attributed to his curveball which is a major plus pitch. It sits in the mid 70's with good hard break and has the potential to truly get pathetic swings. He also features an average change-up that if it develops gives him three usable pitches. He will be a major leaguer one day, and I suspect that'll be in late 2013, or early 2014. His peak is probably that of a #3 starter but the floor is that of a #5. As such, he's one to watch.

Trade Deadline Insanity

The trade deadline is always one of my favorite times of the year. I love the frantic nature of it, and I love the fans of teams going wild, or getting upset about players being moved.

Earlier today I listened to Philly Sports Radio and heard fans wanting to trade Amaro Jr (the GM) for Pat Gillick (the retired Hall of Fame GM). I heard those same fans bemoaning losing the two most athletic players on the team. Yet the simple fact is the Phillies needed to get younger, and they needed a change. That team wasn't going anywhere this season, and in adding five prospects they were able to build towards the future. They kept the rotation intact and if the team is healthy next-year they may be the favorite in the NL East.

Overall the Phillies added five players and strengthen the system. In adding Tommy Joseph they added a solid catcher (in fact both of the USA's futures game catchers were dealt, Rob Brantly is the other) who has the potential to develop into a 15-20 HR a season guy. I've heard some projections saying he has 20-25 HR power but I don't buy that. Nate Schierholtz isn't a prospect but he is a solid platoon bat for the corner outfield. Seth Rosin, is a nice arm to develop. From the Dodgers they added Ethan Martin, who with a little luck could become a #2-#3 starter down the road. And Josh Lindbolm who can jump into the bullpen right now and help bridge the gap to Papelbon.

The Pirates came into the deadline with an AWFUL situation in RF. They made two moves that I feel strengthen that position in adding Travis Snider (from Toronto) and Gaby Sanchez (from Miami). Neither have had much success at the Major League level but both are better solutions for the playoff push than Starling Marte or Alex Presley.

The Reds had the NLs best bullpen, and then they added Kansas City closer Jonathan Broxton. Nasty bullpen, simple as that. They sent the Royals two pitching prospects, J.C. Sulbaran (Eric Hosmer's HS Teammate) and Donnie Joseph.

The Cubs wanted to get younger, and they did. They dealt Geovany Soto and Ryan Dempster to Texas for Jake Brigham (AA Starter, up and down results), Kyle Hendricks (A+ Starter with a 7-1 K-BB Ratio) and Christian Villanueva (3B Prospect with solid OBP, buried behind Mike Olt and now Joey Gallo). Not a ton of upside, but all three are all potential roster fits. They also dealt Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson to the Braves acquring Arodys Vizcaino and Jaye Chapman. Vizcaino is out for the season with Tommy John but last season was considered one of the Braves big three prospects at SP. Chapman profiles as a good bullpen arm for the future but that is about it.

The Rangers added Soto and they added Dempster, the hope is that Soto solidifies the defense at Catcher, and by also acquiring Dempster they kept the battery together. I expect to see Soto 4 times out of 10 games in a week catching all of Dempster's starts.

The Angels added Zach Grienke and took a big risk by sacrificing three of their best prospects in an already weakened system. But they seem to have some bright spots coming through that system in CJ Cron and Nick Maronde (both college picks last season), and the opportunity to get better this season was there. So they took it.

The Blue Jays bullpen was incredibly beaten up, so they added Steve Delabar (from Seattle) and Brad Lincoln (from Pittsburgh) for two outfielders who were buried at the Major League level. In losing Eric Thames and Travis Snider the Blue Jays lost two players who needed an opportunity elsewhere and this gives them that. More importantly the bullpen added two very solid pieces.

The Braves got Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson from the Cubs, Maholm has been the best starter in the MLB over the last month, people just don't realize it. Johnson is the perfect bench-bat for the Braves, and I like this move.

The Red Sox wanted a left-handed reliever, so they added Craig Breslow from the Diamondbacks for overweight righty, Matt Albers and the speedy Scott Podsednik. Overall this move gives the Sox the opportunity to move Franklin Morales into the rotation full-time and gives them a solid left-handed option in the pen without sacrificing much. Sadly for them, they had the opportunity to move Cody Ross or Ryan Sweeney but when Sweeney hurt his hand punching the wall yesterday that ended that thought.

The Marlins continued the firesale of the past week and dealt, Edward Mujica to the Cardinals for former first-rounder Zack Cox (3B), in Mujica the Cardinals get a solid bullpen arm. They also acquired Gorkys Hernandez from the Pirates (for Sanchez) and the competitive balance pick from the Pirates (I believe it's #32). Earlier in the week they added Nate Eovaldi from the Dodgers (for Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate) and Eovaldi profiles as a good #4-#5 starter. They also made a big move to start the week adding Jacob Turner, Rob Brantly and Brian Flynn from the Tigers for Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez.

The Dodgers added Shane Victorino which immediately strengthens that outfield (Kemp, Ethier and Victorino) and gives the Dodgers a nice influx of defense and speed. They also bolstered the bullpen with Brandon League (former All-Star closer from Seattle) and Randy Choate (lefty veteran from the Marlins). Most importantly they added Hanley Ramirez and got him out of the mess that was developing in Miami.

The Giants matched the Dodgers outfield addition by adding Hunter Pence. Pence is a solid outfielder and I think with the Giants Pence will have a solid final two months.

The Mariners are in the constant rebuilding mode and made up for the AWFUL haul for Ichiro by adding a couple prospects one of whom will get a chance to spend the next two months in the majors. Eric Thames is a solid 4th outfielder, and has the potential to be an average starter. Logan Bawcom is a reliever who I think could develop for the Mariners and Leon Landry is a High-A outfielder who was a very solid college player at LSU and will now develop with the Mariners.

That's all i've got for now, later I'll be discussing Jeff Luhnow and what he has done with the Astros in his first seven months on the job!

Blown Saves: The Effect on Closers, and Your Team

Sat down to enjoy a mid-afternoon game yesterday. While I enjoyed the game I was baffled by the managerial decisions of the manager. Furthermore, I was even more baffled by the defense of the decision from local beat writers and local fans. Texas' Ron Washington failed to use his All-Star Closer in the bottom of the Ninth inning in a tie-game. Hell, he didn't even use his solid set-up man. Instead he used a pitcher who will for an intents and purposes will be back at AAA Round Rock later this month. Three pitches into the ninth inning, walk-off home-run for Oakland's Brandon Hicks.


So the outcry began, many fans wanted to know why Nathan wasn't used? Why Adams wasn't used? But then the foolish statements began. A sampling (twitter feeds redacted):

• "a blown save would have been more devastating than the walkoff we suffered, adams was the right move"
• "For us to win today, we needed a pitcher to get 3 outs with a lead, that is the situation for Nathan"
• "why wouldn't he use Adams to get to the 10th? Oh yea, he gave up a walk off not to long ago also."
• "Nathan wouldn't pitch on road in tie."

Before I even get into the statistical part of the study, let me ask you this hypothetical. 


Tie-Game Top 9, two on, no outs. You have a Triple-A level hitter up, but on the bench is your star player who also happens to be the best defensive player in the league. You don't bring the star player in, because you only want to use him when you have a lead on the road for defensive purposes. Your team fails to score, and loses in the bottom half of the ninth.


Think of the outrage, you would be seeing comments like "Fire Manager So-So for not playing star in the top of the ninth" Yet when a team doesn't bring its best bullpen arm into a tied game in the ninth inning, people come up with excuses. "Closer wouldn't pitch on the road in a tie" "Gotta save him for the save", give me a break, use your best available pitcher in the situation. The risk, you won't have him for the save in extra innings... Yeah exactly, you gotta get the lead first, and having the lead is pretty important...at least if you want to win the game.


Well I hate to break it to you, the save is merely a stat. No different than a win, it quantifies something sure, but in the end the value to a team of a win is much greater than the value of saving the closer in case there is a save.


So now to the fun part, debunking the myth that closers perform poorly after a blown save.


QUESTION: Do Closers Perform Worse In The Game After a Blown-Save?


For this study I took the 19 closer who have spent nearly the entire season as the teams closer (as such Washington and the Dodgers for example were not included, but Milwaukee, who just replaced Axford and the Giants, who appear to be close to replacing Casilla, were). I went through and compiled every blown save for these pitchers this season. In this case there were 53 Blown-Saves by the 19 pitchers in the study. I also compiled how many innings they lasted in the blown save, how many earned runs were allowed, and how many controllable base-runners reached during the outing (via hit, walk, intentional BB, and HBP). After that I looked at the game they pitched immediately following the blown-save and compiled the same statistics. If it wasn't a save opportunity I also looked if they converted the next save.


So the question is, does a blown-save have a negative effect on the "closers" next appearance?


Here is the data first for blown saves, followed by the outing immediately after a blown save:


Game in which blown-save occurred

• 53 Blown-Saves
• 47 IP
• 87 ER
• 164 BR (base-runners)
• 16.65 ERA
• 3.49 BRIP (base-runners per inning pitched)

Post-Blown Save

• 51 Games Pitched (2 pitchers have yet to pitch since the last BSv)
• 47.33 IP
• 14 ER
• 47 BR
• 2.66 ERA
• 0.99 BRIP

Overall Statistics For Sample Closers Regardless of Saves

• 353 Saves
• 53 Blown Saves
• 86.9% Conversion Rate
• 670.33 IP
• 227 ER
• 809 BR
• 3.05 ERA
• 1.21 BRIP

Let's take this a little deeper,


In those outings immediately post-blown save how many were save opportunities?

• 31 Post-BSv Save Opportunities
• 29 Saves
• 93.5% Conversion Rate

Meaning 20 of the appearances were not in save situations. But the 31 that were resulted in a conversion rate of 93.5% which is higher than the closers overall save percentage which was 86.9% (353 saves, 53 blown saves).


Furthermore in those 51 outings, 22 of them were clean outings (meaning no one reached base). 43.1% clean outings.


Lastly, how many saves were converted in the next save opportunity regardless of when in came for the closer? 

• 50 Save Opportunities (3 pitchers have yet to have a save op since the last BSv)
• 47 Saves
• 94% Conversion Rate

Almost directly in line with the statistic above. In other words, the next save opportunity you should expect a bump in performance from your everyday closer.


CONCLUSION:


A closer blowing a save does not have an overall negative effect on his next performance. In fact, statistically he performs at a higher level after a blown-save. Therefore, the cost of a blown-save to a team should not be considered when making game-based decisions.


If you are a fantasy owner and see your closer got a blown-save, don't sit him for the next game, chances are he'll get the save and chances are he'll perform at a higher level than before.


For comparison sake, the 19 closers in this study as a whole have put up the following "averages" throughout the season.

• ERA: 3.05
• BRIP: 1.21

Whereas immediately post-blown save

• ERA: 2.66
• BRIP: .99

So after a blown-save we have statistical evidence that the next outing they will actually outperform the average they could be expected to produce.

What Ever Happened To: Oliver Perez/Brad Penny

Do you ever sit around wondering, what ever happened to (Insert Player Name)? Well, in this case we are going to be checking in on two players who have fallen off the map recently. One of them was in the playoffs last season, started the year in Japan, was miserable and is now back in the American Minor Leagues, and the other is a pitcher who simply never reached his full potential, but may have a shot to still.


Player A is Brad Penny.


Player B, Oliver Perez.


Both are currently on AAA rosters, and both will likely get another shot at the Major Leagues this season. With that, let's take a look at both, starting with Brad Penny.


Brad Penny has started 315 games in his Major League career, he is 119-99 with a 4.23 ERA over that career, and was a member of the 2003 World Series Champion Marlins. Twice he has won 16 games in his career. Yet at the end of 2011, after a miserable 11-11 season with a 5.30 ERA with the Tigers, Penny found himself at a crossroads.


Penny was unable to find Major League work and wound up agreeing to a deal with the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks in Japan. The Hawks, eager for a recent MLB-caliber player rather than the traditional "AAAA" player snapped Penny up for $3 million USD. 


Penny made one appearance in Japan's Major League, lasting 3.1 Innings, allowing 7 hits and 3 walks, he struck out one and allowed 6 runs (4 earned). After his release his Japanese manager stated, "Penny...  It is unfortunate.  But part of it is his feelings and then there is also his shoulder.  It can not be helped."


But the San Francisco Giants didn't seem to mind, or notice, signing him to a minor league deal a week later, and proclaiming, "It just didn't work out. He wasn't happy where he was over there. He wanted to come back here. The shoulder or elbow, that's not an issue. He showed it today in the bullpen. We'll make sure he is healthy and make sure he will help us. It'll take a little time. When he thinks he's ready and he thinks he's ready, it'll be a mutual agreement, and we'll have him here to help us."


After three weeks in extended spring, Penny joined the AAA Fresno Grizzlies. His first appearance wasn't pretty, he got only one out, allowing 2 hits and 2 walks, and ultimately getting credited with 5 runs (3 earned). His second appearance, two days later was much cleaner, one quick inning, 11 pitches, 10 strikes. He hit 95 on the gun and had no issues sitting down the Salt Lake Bees in order. If Penny is indeed healthy and can sit around 93-95 consistently in short outings, I could see him being an attribute to the Giants bullpen down the stretch. 


(H/T to YakyuBaku for the wonderful Japanese coverage and the Penny quotes)
___________________________________________________________________________


Oliver Perez is another interesting tale. Perez was released in 2010 by the New York Mets with $12 million remaining on his contract. He joined the Nationals on a minor league deal, and pitched in 16 games (15 starts) for the Harrisburg Senators (AA). He was effective, albeit without his best stuff, posting a 3.09 ERA over the 16 outings. But reports out of Harrisburg had his fastball in the mid-80s. Down from the low-to-mid 90's during his peak. He spent the winter in his native Mexico pitching in the Winter League and things began to turn around.


Re-inventing himself as a lefty-reliever Perez posted a 0.63 ERA in 14.1 innings in the Mexican League. The Seattle Mariners (although they have a ton of left-handed relievers) gave him an opportunity and he joined the team on a minor-league deal worth up to $1 million if he makes the MLB Roster eventually. On June 13th, I was able to see Perez in short-relief and sure enough the fastball was back. He sat at 93-95 through his inning of work and was pleasantly surprised to see Perez.


As for Perez, during an interview with the Mariners during Spring Training he was quoted as saying, "Sometimes I'd see the [radar] gun at the games and it would be 92-94 and that felt good, because the past three years I was 85-87," he said. "That made me really happy, because I worked really hard and all that is paying off."


Now then, as a lefty-reliever it'll be crucial that he can get left-handed hitters out with regularity. So far that is not quite true, with AAA Tacoma this season Perez has faced 60 lefties and allowed only 13 hits, but he has walked 8 of them, meaning that 21 of the 60 Plate Appearances have resulted in baserunners (.250 batting average, and .350 OBP). He has struck out 24 of those 60 batters though, and if he can begin to harness that stuff, he may be able to have a future as a lefty-reliever after all.

AAA Sleeper: Steve Geltz

As the summer begins to pick-up, I am hoping my coverage will pick-up as well. In today's first post I'll be covering AAA Sleeper, Steve Geltz.

As you may have gotten from previous posts, or just knowing my style in general, I am not the kind of person interested in covering the players that all the major publications cover. Quite frankly it doesn't interest me as much as talking about the sleepers! So with that let's talk about Steve Geltz.

Steve Geltz is the absolute definition of sleeper. In 2008, he went undrafted out of the University of Buffalo (not exactly a baseball hotbed) but was signed by the LA Angels. Now Geltz has some definitive "issues" he is right-handed, and small (listed at 5'10 170). He also was suspended for a month last season for an unspecified disciplinary issue (H/T MonkeyWithAHalo, Angels Blog). But the fact of the matter is, Geltz produces.

I'm a big fan of underdogs, and I'm an even bigger fan of pitchers who can strike-out a ton of guys. That fits Geltz to a T.

In his first four seasons pro he has struck out 315 batters in only 226 innings. In other words a 12.56 K/9. He has also only issued 91 walks over that span, 3.63 BB/9. Meaning he is striking out 3.46 batters per walk. Those splits are incredibly favorable for any pitcher, of any size. And did I mention he has only allowed 164 hits during those 226 innings. Meaning his WHIP (for his CAREER) is 1.13. Impressive.

This season though, has been even more impressive. 26 outings, 31.1 IP, 14 HITS, 1 ER, 44 K's/8 BB's. In AA and AAA.

He'll be 24 for the entire season and Rule V eligible if not added to the 40-man this off-season for the second consecutive season, but this time I expect he might get some looks.

So what about his "stuff".

I watched his game on 6/14/12 and he hit 96 MPH out of the bullpen, but for the most part sat 91-93. I wasn't behind home for this game so I couldn't actually tell you what he was throwing breaking wise, but it came in at around the low 80's and was effective at keeping the Fresno hitters off balance. Hopefully later this month i'll catch him again from behind home and be able to update this.

Thus far this season he has faced 117 hitters, 44 have struck out. That's a 37.6% K Rate.

With the Angels bullpen needing reinforcement I could see Geltz making his way into the bullpen this season. Yes he is undersized, yes he had disciplinary issues (reportedly), and yes...he has dominated.

Draft Sleeper Day 3

Yesterday I touched on Parker Morin, the Royals 14th Round selection. Today I am touching on another catcher, Chris Cowell, the 1038 pick in the 34th from the University of Richmond by the Colorado Rockies.

Cowell is immediately different from Morin in the sense that he is a senior and spent all four years at the NCAA D1 Level.

He is also different in the size category. Cowell stands 6'4" and weighs in at 215. Height wise that puts him in line with Jarrod Saltalamacchia. In other words, he is tall, and for the most part catchers aren't nearly that tall.

Cowell finished second in the nation with 20 homeruns this season. He did that in 7 games fewer than the overall leader. The biggest hole in the game though is clearly the swing and miss percentage. He finished this season with 74 strikeouts in 210 at-bats (35.2%). That percentage does not bode well for Cowell. To put it in perspective, Mark Reynolds in college struck out in only 25.3% of his at-bats. In general players who swing and miss that frequently in college do not succeed in the pro game.

The fact of the matter though is he does generate a ton of power. This season when he wasn't striking out, he was mashing the ball all over the country. 38 XBH's out of 57 hits. In other words, 66.6% of his hits were either a double or a homer. 19 singles. 20 homers. 18 doubles. Add in his walks, which he had 40 of this season, and you get an interesting outlook on his skill... In 250 Plate Appearances Cowell, reached base and advanced any runners (in other words had a base hit or walked) in 38.8% of his appearances.

38.8% Reached Via Hit or Walk
29.6% Struckout (Failed to put ball into play)
31.6% Created an out with the ball in play

What this goes to show is that Cowell can have value as a hitter. Despite the high-rate of strike outs, 15.2% of his 250 Plate Appearances resulted in extra bases. In other words, he was putting himself into scoring position with one swing 15.2% of his appearances.

To compare this to the whiff-king in the Majors, Mark Reynolds during his final season at UVA.

Reynolds and Cowell had identical .387 OBP's in the final season of college ball, so it makes for an interesting comparison.

Reynolds
34.7% Reached Via Hit or Walk
20.3% Struckout (Failed to put ball into play)
45% Created an out with the ball in play

Furthermore, only 9.3% of his at-bats resulted in extra bases.

Now, Cowell and Reynolds are not the same player. Richmond is a small A10 school. They play one ACC game a season. UVA is one of the strongest baseball programs in the nation, in one of the best conferences. But what this goes to show is that Cowell can produce at a good clip, despite the high-rate of strikeouts.

Defensively he has never been a top-notch receiver, but he is a solid catcher. He threw out a total of 22.4% of potential base runners over his four year career. That average was consistant throughout his career at Richmond, and leads me to believe that it is relatively accurate. That said, because of his size and arm strength, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rockies move him to 1B or LF where his skills may play up a little better.

Needless to say, if you are a Rockies fan, Chris Cowell is a solid 34th rounder. And if the strikeouts can be minimized the Rockies may have a steal.

Draft Sleepers

June 4-6, 2012. Three of my favorite days of the year... Or in my case, more so, June 5th and 6th. The second and third days of the MLB Rule 4 Amateur Draft. The days when college and high school baseball players get to finally pursue a lifelong dream of professional baseball and the days that scouting departments around the country countdown to. Here at AltitudeSportsGroup, I try to always focus on the things that don't always get coverage. The little details, the unknowns, the independent stars. Things that mainstream media may not consider. I don't usually tread on the yellow line. I try to always make my own path. With my assessment of the MLB Draft, that is no different.

For example this year, before the draft began I tweeted (@AltitudeSports) the following:

• If it isn't Appel, I'm going with Correa. Slick big SS. Correa also dominated in Perfect Game showcases against other first rounders.
• I'll go ahead and make this prediction. Albert Almora will be a better player than Byron Buxton. Furthermore I think Correa is best of HS.

I tend to say what I feel. And in this case, I was thrilled to see the Astros agreed with me.


That said, I tend to avoid the first round entirely. The major media outlets will cover that MUCH better than I can.


That said yesterday I also tweeted the following.

• In a draft short on catchers here are two names to think about later in the draft. Parker Morin out of U Utah. And Chris Cowell of Richmond.
• Cowell is a big power bat. Top 10 HRs in nation this season. Tons of swing and miss though. Solid defensively. Senior, wasn't drafted in '11.
• Morin is a Left-handed bat who was a switch hitter up until this season. Was PAC-12 honorable mention this season. Best hitter on a bad team.

Today in the 14th round, with the 433 selection, the Kansas City Royals selected Parker Morin. Great pick-up in my mind, and here is my reasoning.

Morin is 5'10 195. I suspect he will continue to bulk up as he has a short stocky build. I'd project him to round out at around Brayan Pena's size. When you see Morin you know immediately he is a catcher. 

He spent two years at the JuCo College of Southern Idaho where as a freshman he hit .255/.383/.396 and as a sophomore hit an impressive, .372/.416/.534. Keep in mind the JuCo league that Southern Idaho plays in, is a wood-bat league. The kid can hit. 

In 2012, he began his stay at the University of Utah, the Pac-12's weakest team. Parker started every single game of the season for the University of Utah and was an All-Pac12 Honorable Mention this season. With the Utes, Morin led the team in hitting by batting .314/.353/.414. The talent stepped up in his league, and Morin batted clean-up for a very bad team. In other words, he wasn't given the best pitches to hit. 

He is a pretty solid contact hitter, but doesn't exactly have great speed or power. As such his future may be as more of a defensive-minded contact hitting catcher. One issue he will run into is that he doesn't walk a ton. That said, he also isn't a big swing and miss guy. Again though this plays up the fact that he is a contact-hitter.

Take a look at some of these break downs from his three college seasons.

Strikeouts/Walks

2010: 20/21 (106 AB) 18.8% of AB's resulted in K.

2011: 11/16 (191 AB) 5.7% of AB's resulted in K.

2012: 29/13 (212 AB) 13.7% of AB's resulted in K.

XBHits (2B/3B/HR)

2010: 5/2/2 (27 H/106 AB) 8.5% of AB's resulted in XBHits. 33.3% of Hits XB.

2011: 14/4/3 (71 H/191 AB) 11.0% of AB's resulted in XBHits. 29.5% of Hits XB.

2012: 11/1/3 (69 H/212 AB) 7.1% of AB's resulted in XBHits. 21.7% of Hits XB.

The biggest issue that stands out to me here is that while Morin doesn't strike out frequently, 11.8% for his college career, he doesn't have gap power either, 8.8% of his AB's resulted in XBs. That singles contact has to turn into Gap Power in order for Morin to sustain a career. Over the past three seasons he has regressed in terms of XBHits, but has shown signs that he can he the ball well. One fear I have is that both the University of Utah and College of Southern Idaho are high-altitude parks. As such the ball should fly better there.

So if the hitting isn't awesome, what will make him a valuable player? DEFENSE!

I briefly mentioned defense early, so here is where I think the Royals got a good steal in Morin. I've managed to scout a couple of his games in both High School and College and was always impressed by what he brought to the table. This past year with the University of Utah he displayed a pop time of 1.9, which is right in the middle of the Major League Average. He displays great footwork and seems to have a great grasp of the game.

He committed a total of 8 errors in his college career in 918 chances. A .991% Fielding%.

Most impressively base-stealers were caught at an improving clip each season and at a total percentage of 35.3%. His best season behind the plate was with the University of Utah, facing the top talents in the Pac-12. 

2010: 12/40 (30.0%) Caught Stealing (Fun, albeit worthless, fact, As a freshman Morin was 0 for 2 at attempting to catch Bryce Harper stealing...)

2011: 27/80 (33.8%)

2012: 33/84 (39.3%)

Totals: 72/204 (35.3%)

He is an incredibly down to earth kid and he gets it. Hard work and determination go a long way in this game and I think that Morin will be a great value pick for the Royals in the 14th Round. 

Consider this, the Royals past 14th rounders have produced a total of 6 Major Leaguers. The most recent, Devon Lowery. Who has managed 4 innings in the Majors. Since Lowery the highest level a 14th Round Royals selection has reached was Steve Kent who reached AAA in 2010 for Seattle. And lasted only three years in the Royals system. Other than him, only one player has reached High-A. Morin is already at the Low-A level, so I'll go out on a limb and say he will be the first player since Kent to reach AA. That said, I don't expect that before the 2014 season. At the earliest I foresee a late 2015 arrival at the Major League Level if things progress the way they have been for Morin.

Now, let's tap the breaks a little. Do I foresee him as a future Major League All-Star, no. Do I think he'll be an everyday starter in the Majors, again, no. Do I think he has the potential to be a solid Major League backup. Definitely. Think of him along the lines of Matt Treanor, a solid defensive minded back-up catcher who can play at the Major League Level. Now ask yourself, would you take that out of your 14th round selection?